If this virus isn't totally under control, i see no football in the fall....
- Thread starter ttowncoug
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the problem with that is there are no metrics for "under control". For how long does a pandemic have to show decreasing numbers before it is declared under control? How can we know that the actual numbers of cases/ positives/ deaths/ recoveries when we can't even provide enough tests to the places that are being affected the worst? From everything I can tell, which isn't much because the news is obsessed with fear-mongering, the CDC is making this up as they go, as are the state and local governments.
While I'm dealing with the recent spate of hysteria in stride, I'm curious/ petrified that this current reaction will become the protocol for all pandemics in the future. That is my biggest question (and this isn't about "Obama had H1N1 and blah blah...): why haven't these protocols been issued in the past for similar pandemics? What is different about SARS-CoV2? Another question no one seems to have an answer for.
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There are several factors in play that I can see. Because of it's relative isolation, previous viruses in Africa and other 3rd world countries were sensationalized but relatively easy to contain. I remember the initial talks about Ebola being just as dramatic as the coronavirus. I don't think that's new.
China is so interconnected with the rest of the world through business that a widespread pandemic was inevitable. Also, this virus is sneaky because it seems that there are more people that can carry the disease undetected. While that means mild symptoms for a lot of people, it means that containing the spread is more difficult. As time has gone on, we've all gotten used to the idea that "every life matters" and that any death is unacceptable. We all understand the thinking behind that, but pandemics highlight the cost of saving every life possible. It's not my place to suggest that the virus should be allowed to run its course, but this is an instance in time where we might see that people start to change their thinking. I don't know that is a good thing, but we'll see where things go in the next month.
As far as the OP's comment....if there isn't a vaccine.....I'm betting that football is toast this year.
I think the obvious answer is that SARS-CoV2 is more contagious and results in more hospitalizations per confirmed case than any other virus in recent history. Maybe Polio and the Spanish Flu were close but both were a long time ago.
With the high rate of required COVID hospitalizations, Governors faced the very real possibility that hospitals would be overrun leaving patients to die in the parking lot. That’s sImilar to what’s going on in Italy and Iran. And it’s not a good look for a Governors political future nor is it something that anyone with a heart wants to ever see. That kind of scenario was not a credible possibility with H1N1 or any of the other recent flu’s.
It is definitely a possibility. If the danger is still around without any cure or vaccine by September, I do not think we will be seeing the Fall sports, neither amateur nor professional. I suspect that a vaccine will be here by the end of the year. Thus the Spring sports- baseball, rowing, T&F- will be O.K. but even that is unsure.
The only good thing that I see from all this is that the "social distancing" has ironically brought us together as a nation. Perhaps even as a world, with a few notable exceptions. Whether we dislike the uw or not is no longer important. When was the last time you saw a thread or post about the Apple Cup? Race, ethnicity, financial status etc. are meaningless. Political affiliation looks to be the last holdout. It would be nice if this feeling were to endure after the crisis, even if just to a lessened degree.
Edit: Agree with all previous posts.
It won't be "under control" until there is a vaccine. That's 12-18 months.
COVID-19 is spreading faster and easier, appears to have a longer incubation period, and decent percentage of the spreaders are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.
You will see some schools close if they cannot open doors for classes in the fall.
You will see academic standards to get in fall for some schools if doors are open.
I have hard time seeing some parents send their children long distances for school in the future.
You will see academic standards to get in fall for some schools if doors are open.
I have hard time seeing some parents send their children long distances for school in the future.
A lot can change but given what's known today I would predict Fall semester is done completely online.
Actually, I’ve long wondered when the academic part of college would migrate to online anyway. It’s a far more efficient way to deliver learning. If this COVID problem disrupts a second academic year, I would guess online college becomes the norm rather than an outlier. And there will be no going back once that takes root. I think that will result in a sad loss of the whole collaborative college experience but on the good side may eliminate some of the college debt problem
I saved zero money by taking classes online, so I doubt that that model will change.
While I absolutely loved the work-at-my-own-pace (read: get all your shit done over the weekend b/c you work a 50-60 hour work week) aspect of online only classes, there are still some very serious hurdles. My stats class was a list of assignments and "read this chapter", and if you had any questions the TA would tell you where to find the relevant material in the book - zero actual teaching and if you didn't "get it", you failed. There were so many non-traditional students (read: older working folks) in that class that simply were failing that the actual prof (not the TA) had to curve the class so hard that I went from a C to an A. I can't imagine that this class is the exception to the rule. Short story : getting additional help isn't as easy as going to the math lab when you take online classes, you're kind of out on an island.
Besides, electronics are already making kids shut-ins. It would be a shame if the last great chance at mass social interaction was eliminated. I mean, if you wink at a girl in the work place you'll get fired, so that's no longer "social" in a way that allows young adults to find potential mates.
I took a couple of correspondence courses back before there was a “line” to be on. Was definitely cheaper for me - no room and board costs.
On the vaccine, what we do have in our favor is literally everyone is rushing for a cure to this. I'm optimistic that we will see one soon.
The other likely scenario is once testing is more wide spread and available, I can see where mandatory testing is required. Probably fairly problematic to force testing, but it seems like the cost of not doing this are greater than the cost of doing this.
The other likely scenario is once testing is more wide spread and available, I can see where mandatory testing is required. Probably fairly problematic to force testing, but it seems like the cost of not doing this are greater than the cost of doing this.
How about football with no fans? It’s such a huge business in this country in terms of TV $, wouldn’t surprise me. Would be a trip!
You mean like the NBA did? And then it spread across the league?
Nope, not gonna happen.
Herd immunity is also entirely possible before that with how fast it’s spreading, and how many people in our country aren’t taking it seriously. With that as variable A. And a process for testing and isolation in areas of new outbreak as variable B. it can be managed and life can go on for the most part.
Well that’s considering nothing changes between now and September. I’d have to think we will be in a different place in terms of new cases, managing localized new outbreaks through testing availability, and a ramp of medical resources, facilities, equipment. If we haven’t improved significantly in all of these areas by then...sad
I'm saying 60-40 that call sports are cancelled. COVID may fade a bit over summer - although there's currently nothing to support that - but it'll be back in the fall for another wave. A vaccine won't be ready by then - at least not one that's safe and effective. The only real hope is that an existing medication proves at least marginally effective...which appears possible, but if that occurs it'll immediately rise tremendously in price.
I don't see college moving online. It's efficient, but not effective. Students just don't learn the material. PLus, there's zero opportunity for hands-on or practical experience, so pretty much all of the STEM disciplines still require a facility. The liberal arts degrees might go online, and probably could without losing too much effectiveness....Although it would seem ironic to offer sociology and psychology degrees with no actual human interaction.
Agree on both counts. College has always been part life experience part education.
I’m just thinking looking at the NCAA model, there may be more of a push to play games for purposes of TV revenue. The NBA is a little different. You’ve got zillionaire owners who will be fine missing out on one season. Plenty of schools like WSU are already in the red and paying coaches 2, 3, 4 mill a year with assistant salaries making up another 2 mill+. Most of the revenue is coming from TV contracts. How do you continue to support the cost without games/revenue coming in? I could see a scenario where players and coaches are tested along with necessary personnel (refs, crews, etc) and no fans. It seems weird to think about it, but where there’s money, there’s a way, and CFB is big business.
GOOD NEWS.....
There is a vaccine now. HydroxyChloroquine works well. It is getting rolled out. What we are doing is working. About a 1% death rate per known case. Italy is at 10%. Fortunately it doesn’t have to go through the onerous FDA process again.
“Lennox Hill Hospital in New York has even adopted the HydroxyChloroquine formula, and they have yet to lose even a single victim to COVID-19 of their more than 100 cases that they are treating.”
https://townhall.com/columnists/kev...the-final-steps-to-defeating-covid19-n2565453
Being technical- That’s not a vaccine. Vaccine prevents the disease. Hydroxychloroquine is a treatment. Obviously good news.
The Olympics are suspended until next year. That's a huge indication where we are with this virus. If they aren't willing to hold the Olympics, where billions have been invested, I don't see how football is going to be played. They could have a shorten season. The OSPI Superintendent, Reykdal is planning for no school going through fall of next year because there is not a vaccine available. This virus has changed how the entire world operates. People need to stay home right now and take care of themselves if they want football in the fall. If they don't, then keep doing their thing.
100 cases....without knowing the demographics of the treated sample, we don’t know whether the drug is responsible or its more to do with age composition or infection severity of the sample. While encouraging, this is still very, very preliminary.
The Olympics is a disaster for the spread of a bug. People coming from all over the world, interacting within close quarters, not to mention the two week orgy that is the Olympic village. This is essentially the perfect way to insure the bug goes around the globe.
Chloroquine is indeed an interesting possibility but only a possibility at this point. The data is minimal. The French study was limited to only twenty individuals and may have been a fluke. We need more extensive studies. Certainly good news if it pans out. Good to hear that Stanford and Johns Hopkins are investigating this.
One unfortunate aspect of this potential cure is that the gap between the reported dosage, half a gram a day, and the fatal dosage, two grams, is frighteningly close. I can see foolish people loading up on the drug and killing themselves.
One unfortunate aspect of this potential cure is that the gap between the reported dosage, half a gram a day, and the fatal dosage, two grams, is frighteningly close. I can see foolish people loading up on the drug and killing themselves.
According to what I saw on Twitter this already happened. A couple in AZ Romeo and Julietted on this stuff. Sad. Indeed that’s why there’s extensive clinical trials on these things and you don’t get too carried away talking about it. We’re all hopeful but even this is likely a ways out.
What happened is the danger of this information being disseminated to the masses.
The effective drug is HYDROXYchloroquine. This couple (I assume mistakenly) took chloroquine, which is concentrated and not safe for consumption.
Both are supposedly effective, but chloroquine has more severe side effects. That's a big part of why it was largely replaced...along with increasing resistance of the malaria parasite.
Well there you have it. Glad I didn’t run out and look to self medicate, probably would have done the same thing.
Don't start medicating too soon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study
That's a horribly misleading title. It's a study of 30 patients. 15 in a control group,15 in an experimental group. Not statistically significant.
One could argue the COVID virus is statistically insignificant too.
I’m not going to do that today but may revisit in a few weeks when the data is more indicative of what is really happening.
Some of the most educated scientists in the world are putting out models that show a 95% Confidence Interval of the IFR being .2-.3% about 3x as deadly as the seasonal flu.
If you consider the seasonal flu in ‘18-‘19 had over 35 million sick, 16.5 million seeking doctors, 490,000 hospitalized and 34,200 deaths it puts it into perspective. (US data only)
Consider in Covid19 CFR is mostly considered death of a person who was positive and was hospitalized, at least until testing massively picked up a few days ago. As such IFR and CFR are both falling. If you roughly translated CFR for flu (how Covid was mainly reported), deaths divided by hospitalizations: 34200/490000 you get a CFR of about 6.9%. IFR: 34200/35 million: .1% (2-3x less than current covid numbers).
Models also predict there is a decent chance we have hit a saturation point in terms of spread and the pandemic may be in late stages, where the hot spots are super saturated and it’s effecting all the vulnerable in the area due to high spread.
We will see in the next few weeks but there is some encouraging information out there.
If you consider the seasonal flu in ‘18-‘19 had over 35 million sick, 16.5 million seeking doctors, 490,000 hospitalized and 34,200 deaths it puts it into perspective. (US data only)
Consider in Covid19 CFR is mostly considered death of a person who was positive and was hospitalized, at least until testing massively picked up a few days ago. As such IFR and CFR are both falling. If you roughly translated CFR for flu (how Covid was mainly reported), deaths divided by hospitalizations: 34200/490000 you get a CFR of about 6.9%. IFR: 34200/35 million: .1% (2-3x less than current covid numbers).
Models also predict there is a decent chance we have hit a saturation point in terms of spread and the pandemic may be in late stages, where the hot spots are super saturated and it’s effecting all the vulnerable in the area due to high spread.
We will see in the next few weeks but there is some encouraging information out there.
Yes, I suspect this is the case as well. The real x-factor is how many people have had this bug but don't realize it because they blame it on things like seasonal allergies.
from everything I've read, the symptoms don't directly mimic seasonal allergies, especially the number one symptom which is fever.
Source: I've seasonal allergies and have been freaking out for 3 weeks with a "dry cough" waiting for my lungs to fill up.
Not everyone gets a fever though. Sen. Rand Paul, as an example, tested positive despite not having symptoms. Maybe they will manifest later, maybe they won't.
Hard to say, because it sounds like this thing presents differently. The fever is the most common symptom, and the one that distinguishes it best from allergies, but apparently fever is absent in 20-25% of cases, particularly the more mild cases. There's also some information out there that says it sometimes presents as GI issues before (or instead) of respiratory. It's hard to nail down, and even harder to figure out what's fact vs. fiction.
Ok, but you related having the Sars-cov2 to being symptomatic, eg having seasonal allergies. The truth is, like you said, there are likely tens of thousands of carriers who are asymptomatic and are spreading the infection all over the place.
What about this burning sensation when I urinate? Am I gonna die from COVID?
I'll take my answer off the air.
I'll take my answer off the air.
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