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Is Rolovich finally in our rear view mirror forever

Hey Grok,

I am currently healthy. I am under 60. if I contract Covid today what is my statistical chance of survival.
I don’t know who Grok is, but I do know you don’t need Grok to answer this question for you. I know of several folks (in real life) under 60, healthy, who are dead from COVID. Granted, I also know of thousands of folks. Your statistical chance of survival isn’t 100%. You can work backwards from there.
 
Since the vax portion of this thread is off the rails as usual, let me give you a fire update.

I know well several folks who have evacuated. Some precautionary, some just ahead of the bad stuff. To give you a feel for how stretched the fire agencies are, one of my guys is a retired fireman (med retirement; he fell through a roof; now on his second career). He has a fire truck that he keeps up to snuff and full of water; he subcontracts being the fire person on site for various IHRA events, drives in parades, etc. It is his thing, and he is well known within that circle of folks. He called me at 9:30 pm last night to tell me that he had been drafted (along with a couple of other retirees) to take his truck to Altadena for structure protection. Wasn't sure how long and would not be in to work today. There are simply no more rigs available and while some are coming from more distant areas, they were/are still short. There were also fire folks who had been working for going on 24 hours and needed to get some sleep. We were told Monday night to expect 80-100 mph gusts through the Malibu area (Pacific Palisades is the adjoining town inland from Malibu), and we got them. LA County fire officially handed off the Palisades fire to CalFire this morning at 8:00 am. A lot of CalFire folks had already been involved, and LAC is not fully pulling out, but they needed to give the fire management over to the state so they could focus their bandwidth on managing the other two fires that are going.

One of my partners was going to Costa Rica tomorrow but is staying because the Altadena (Eaton Canyon) fire is now headed east. He sent us a picture from his house at daybreak this morning; it was less than 3 miles as the crow flies. I was just talking to one of my techs on the roof of one of our local TV stations. He is trying to diagnose a low voltage short and has to remove fairly large (3' x 4') panels to get into the unit to do that; that is harder than you might think with (his guess) 40-50 mph gusts at his location. He is only about 3 miles as the crow flies to the Palisades fire, and his comment was that "there is a lot going on, on that roof". A large chunk of the 210 (foothill) freeway has been closed since last night. I got a call this morning from the most famous of the sports surgery centers. I had to review for them the implications in the operating theatres of the VOC's (which their filtration will not stop) vs. particulate (which it will) in their outside air supply as they considered cancelling/postponing surgeries.

In short, our biggest wind event in 30 years combined with dry conditions has put us in the crosshairs. The sheer scale of a fire being fed by this kind of wind is hard to grasp. The fire hydrant issue is not new; in the Palisades (the report cited by a previous poster) they are predominantly fed from big water tanks up in the hills. As with any hydrant (or irrigation) system, if you turn on every single hydrant at the same time, not much comes out. The only solution if you are going to plan for a fire this massive is to add more reservoirs to the system, as well as more feed lines to keep the reservoirs replenished. Our average temp in CA has risen between 1-2 F (depending upon location) since 1970. Add a la nina condition (minimal rain in SoCal) and peak Santa Ana conditions to that and you get what we have now.

Finally, I love it when people keep posting & reposting Trump's comments about cleaning the forest floor. Please keep doing that. It is the only humor I have going today.
 
I don’t know who Grok is, but I do know you don’t need Grok to answer this question for you. I know of several folks (in real life) under 60, healthy, who are dead from COVID. Granted, I also know of thousands of folks. Your statistical chance of survival isn’t 100%. You can work backwards from there.
Yes, I understand how statistics work. Thank you.

I know someone who died from a heart attack.

I know someone else who died from cancer.

I know someone who died in a snowstorm.

We shut down the country at great cost. We ****ed
 
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Yes, I understand how statistics work. Thank you.

I know someone who died from a heart attack.

I know someone else who died from cancer.

I know someone who died in a snowstorm.

We shut down the country at great cost. We ****ed

I know someone who killed their father by bringing COVID from work. Can you catch a heart attack, cancer or a snowstorm from someone else while sitting in a recliner in your home? I think the government mismanaged COVID badly....but your comment was f#cking stupid and I had to respond.
 
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Since the vax portion of this thread is off the rails as usual, let me give you a fire update.

I know well several folks who have evacuated. Some precautionary, some just ahead of the bad stuff. To give you a feel for how stretched the fire agencies are, one of my guys is a retired fireman (med retirement; he fell through a roof; now on his second career). He has a fire truck that he keeps up to snuff and full of water; he subcontracts being the fire person on site for various IHRA events, drives in parades, etc. It is his thing, and he is well known within that circle of folks. He called me at 9:30 pm last night to tell me that he had been drafted (along with a couple of other retirees) to take his truck to Altadena for structure protection. Wasn't sure how long and would not be in to work today. There are simply no more rigs available and while some are coming from more distant areas, they were/are still short. There were also fire folks who had been working for going on 24 hours and needed to get some sleep. We were told Monday night to expect 80-100 mph gusts through the Malibu area (Pacific Palisades is the adjoining town inland from Malibu), and we got them. LA County fire officially handed off the Palisades fire to CalFire this morning at 8:00 am. A lot of CalFire folks had already been involved, and LAC is not fully pulling out, but they needed to give the fire management over to the state so they could focus their bandwidth on managing the other two fires that are going.

One of my partners was going to Costa Rica tomorrow but is staying because the Altadena (Eaton Canyon) fire is now headed east. He sent us a picture from his house at daybreak this morning; it was less than 3 miles as the crow flies. I was just talking to one of my techs on the roof of one of our local TV stations. He is trying to diagnose a low voltage short and has to remove fairly large (3' x 4') panels to get into the unit to do that; that is harder than you might think with (his guess) 40-50 mph gusts at his location. He is only about 3 miles as the crow flies to the Palisades fire, and his comment was that "there is a lot going on, on that roof". A large chunk of the 210 (foothill) freeway has been closed since last night. I got a call this morning from the most famous of the sports surgery centers. I had to review for them the implications in the operating theatres of the VOC's (which their filtration will not stop) vs. particulate (which it will) in their outside air supply as they considered cancelling/postponing surgeries.

In short, our biggest wind event in 30 years combined with dry conditions has put us in the crosshairs. The sheer scale of a fire being fed by this kind of wind is hard to grasp. The fire hydrant issue is not new; in the Palisades (the report cited by a previous poster) they are predominantly fed from big water tanks up in the hills. As with any hydrant (or irrigation) system, if you turn on every single hydrant at the same time, not much comes out. The only solution if you are going to plan for a fire this massive is to add more reservoirs to the system, as well as more feed lines to keep the reservoirs replenished. Our average temp in CA has risen between 1-2 F (depending upon location) since 1970. Add a la nina condition (minimal rain in SoCal) and peak Santa Ana conditions to that and you get what we have now.

Finally, I love it when people keep posting & reposting Trump's comments about cleaning the forest floor. Please keep doing that. It is the only humor I have going today.
Has the wind died down? Not a good sign if the wind is shifting east.
 
I know someone who killed their father by bringing COVID from work. Can you catch a heart attack, cancer or a snowstorm from someone else while sitting in a recliner in your home? I think the government mismanaged COVID badly....but your comment was f#cking stupid and I had to respond.
Life is full of risks. Federal government interventions always makes things worse.

Just think of all the businesses and lives destroy due to lockdowns.
 
Since the vax portion of this thread is off the rails as usual, let me give you a fire update.

I know well several folks who have evacuated. Some precautionary, some just ahead of the bad stuff. To give you a feel for how stretched the fire agencies are, one of my guys is a retired fireman (med retirement; he fell through a roof; now on his second career). He has a fire truck that he keeps up to snuff and full of water; he subcontracts being the fire person on site for various IHRA events, drives in parades, etc. It is his thing, and he is well known within that circle of folks. He called me at 9:30 pm last night to tell me that he had been drafted (along with a couple of other retirees) to take his truck to Altadena for structure protection. Wasn't sure how long and would not be in to work today. There are simply no more rigs available and while some are coming from more distant areas, they were/are still short. There were also fire folks who had been working for going on 24 hours and needed to get some sleep. We were told Monday night to expect 80-100 mph gusts through the Malibu area (Pacific Palisades is the adjoining town inland from Malibu), and we got them. LA County fire officially handed off the Palisades fire to CalFire this morning at 8:00 am. A lot of CalFire folks had already been involved, and LAC is not fully pulling out, but they needed to give the fire management over to the state so they could focus their bandwidth on managing the other two fires that are going.

One of my partners was going to Costa Rica tomorrow but is staying because the Altadena (Eaton Canyon) fire is now headed east. He sent us a picture from his house at daybreak this morning; it was less than 3 miles as the crow flies. I was just talking to one of my techs on the roof of one of our local TV stations. He is trying to diagnose a low voltage short and has to remove fairly large (3' x 4') panels to get into the unit to do that; that is harder than you might think with (his guess) 40-50 mph gusts at his location. He is only about 3 miles as the crow flies to the Palisades fire, and his comment was that "there is a lot going on, on that roof". A large chunk of the 210 (foothill) freeway has been closed since last night. I got a call this morning from the most famous of the sports surgery centers. I had to review for them the implications in the operating theatres of the VOC's (which their filtration will not stop) vs. particulate (which it will) in their outside air supply as they considered cancelling/postponing surgeries.

In short, our biggest wind event in 30 years combined with dry conditions has put us in the crosshairs. The sheer scale of a fire being fed by this kind of wind is hard to grasp. The fire hydrant issue is not new; in the Palisades (the report cited by a previous poster) they are predominantly fed from big water tanks up in the hills. As with any hydrant (or irrigation) system, if you turn on every single hydrant at the same time, not much comes out. The only solution if you are going to plan for a fire this massive is to add more reservoirs to the system, as well as more feed lines to keep the reservoirs replenished. Our average temp in CA has risen between 1-2 F (depending upon location) since 1970. Add a la nina condition (minimal rain in SoCal) and peak Santa Ana conditions to that and you get what we have now.

Finally, I love it when people keep posting & reposting Trump's comments about cleaning the forest floor. Please keep doing that. It is the only humor I have going today.
Thanks for this. I have been watching some video clips and news reports this morning. Geezus.

And yes I saw a reference to Trump's "cleaning the forest floor" remarks and his latest blast blaming Newsom for not having enough water available to fight the fire. Last time I looked, the houses burning on the Malibu beach are not in the forest. Can that that dipshit just shut his F-ing mouth once?
 
Yes, I understand how statistics work. Thank you.

I know someone who died from a heart attack.

I know someone else who died from cancer.

I know someone who died in a snowstorm.

We shut down the country at great cost. We ****ed
Hindsight is 20/20 as they say and we weren't the only - nor the first - country to lock down.

It appears you believe the lock -down was done for some other nefarious reason. That's all I have to say about that
 
I know someone who killed their father by bringing COVID from work. Can you catch a heart attack, cancer or a snowstorm from someone else while sitting in a recliner in your home? I think the government mismanaged COVID badly....but your comment was f#cking stupid and I had to respond.
Yes, in retrospect, sacrificing our Youth because old people were frightened from an ailment with a 99% survival rate was such a good idea 💡
 
Hindsight is 20/20 as they say and we weren't the only - nor the first - country to lock down.

It appears you believe the lock -down was done for some other nefarious reason. That's all I have to say about that
I was skeptical from the beginning.

2.7-3.4 Million dead in 30-60 days, mainly the young and healthy they said. Remember?

I do.

Then came 30 days.

Then came 60 days.

Coming back to you yet?
 
Trump told Gavin but Pelosi’s nephew just blew him off and now we have this.

I can’t remember where you live Uber, but forest fires aren’t just a Cali problem. We are aware right that raking up the forest in preparation for 100 MPH winds on top of a tinder box is akin to using buckets of sand to build up a several hundred mile wall of sand in preparation for a Tsunami.
 
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Thanks for this. I have been watching some video clips and news reports this morning. Geezus.

And yes I saw a reference to Trump's "cleaning the forest floor" remarks and his latest blast blaming Newsom for not having enough water available to fight the fire. Last time I looked, the houses burning on the Malibu beach are not in the forest. Can that that dipshit just shut his F-ing mouth once?
No. He can’t. Cuz dipshittier dipshits love to hear his voice and he knows it.
 
I can’t remember where you live Uber, but forest fires aren’t just a Cali problem. We are aware right that raking up the forest in preparation for 100 MPH winds on top of a tinder box is akin to using buckets of sand to build up a several hundred mile wall of sand in preparation for a Tsunami.
Yeah.

Fuel ⛽, heat, oxygen. (Learned and practiced this regularly from third grade, btw)

Now remove one of them and try again.
 
Has the wind died down? Not a good sign if the wind is shifting east.
Still red flag warnings until 6:00 pm Thursday. Growing up in E WA, I was unfamiliar with a weather forecast that spent most of its time talking about wind, but that is SoCal.
 
Yes, in retrospect, sacrificing our Youth because old people were frightened from an ailment with a 99% survival rate was such a good idea 💡

Again, I'm not saying that the government didn't fubar the response....but COVID absolutely did kill people whose only crime was being old or infirm. This gal I mentioned above worked at the hospital with my wife and her dad never went anywhere because he knew that he was high risk....but she got sick and gave it to him anyway.

So....a government mandate to limit the spread of COVID from one person to another is an entirely different topic than how to handle heart attacks, cancer or driving in snowstorms. I personally think that states like Washington lost their frickin' minds and went too far. The extra pandemic paychecks were stupid and the whole paycheck reimbursement program was a huge scam for businesses and there are a lot of folks who should be in jail over that one. The government fubared it for sure....but the melodrama from the anti-vax crowd does go overboard at times.

FWIW, my daughter graduated high school at the height of COVID and just graduated Magna Cum Laude with her ChemE degree from the Colorado School of Mines and has her full time job lined up, a guy that she is probably going to marry and only $15k in school loans thanks to scholarships and the bank of Mom and Dad. Not all kids were sacrificed.....
 
Cool. So are you suggesting trees aren’t fuel or that they should all be removed to prevent fire spread? Asking for a third grader friend.
Grok: The word "fuel" is generally considered appropriate for **3rd grade** reading levels and above. This assessment is based on common readability metrics and vocabulary lists for educational purposes.


Already did.
 
Now let’s do water. Let’s just ignore for a moment the fact firemen, women, others have no water 💦 at the hydrants.

Check the date of this post then ask… well then where are they?

 
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Grok: The word "fuel" is generally considered appropriate for **3rd grade** reading levels and above. This assessment is based on common readability metrics and vocabulary lists for educational purposes.


Already did.
You are trying too hard to be Gibbons. It’s not going real well.
 
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Now let’s do water. Let’s just ignore for a moment the fact firemen, women, others have no water 💦 at the hydrants.

Check the date of this post then ask… well then where are they?

If you ask Google where they are, you'll find that the companies that operated this kind of tanker all went belly up, and the tankers have been sold to airlines for conversion into cargo aircraft.

You might also find that air operations start getting dicey as winds go above 30-40 MPH. Windy conditions create turbulence near the ground that make it increasingly unsafe to operate at low altitudes. The higher they drop from, the less accurate the drop, and the more it dissipates. Increasing winds exacerbate this - the 50-80 MPH winds they've seen in these fires mean they would have to drop from higher altitude, which means the wind carries it even more/farther, and makes them less effective.

As for the reservoirs - apparently this passed in 2014. For most of the period between then and now, the big news out of California has been continuing drought and declining reservoir/lake levels. I don't see a lot of point in rushing to build reservoirs when the ones you have are drying out. In the last 12-18 months, the drought has eased in northern California, but most of the south - including the entire LA area - remains in moderate to severe drought. Which is a big part of why it burns so easily.

As for "cleaning the forest floor" I don't know if you've been in SoCal much, but there's not much forest there. That's not really something that's relevant to the current situation.
 
Life is full of risks. Federal government interventions always makes things worse.

Just think of all the businesses and lives destroy due to lockdowns.
Or like in Sweden where they didn't lock down and all the lives that were destroyed because their GDP decreased more than Norway, who locked it down. People self isolated in Sweden.
 
If you ask Google where they are, you'll find that the companies that operated this kind of tanker all went belly up, and the tankers have been sold to airlines for conversion into cargo aircraft.

You might also find that air operations start getting dicey as winds go above 30-40 MPH. Windy conditions create turbulence near the ground that make it increasingly unsafe to operate at low altitudes. The higher they drop from, the less accurate the drop, and the more it dissipates. Increasing winds exacerbate this - the 50-80 MPH winds they've seen in these fires mean they would have to drop from higher altitude, which means the wind carries it even more/farther, and makes them less effective.

As for the reservoirs - apparently this passed in 2014. For most of the period between then and now, the big news out of California has been continuing drought and declining reservoir/lake levels. I don't see a lot of point in rushing to build reservoirs when the ones you have are drying out. In the last 12-18 months, the drought has eased in northern California, but most of the south - including the entire LA area - remains in moderate to severe drought. Which is a big part of why it burns so easily.

As for "cleaning the forest floor" I don't know if you've been in SoCal much, but there's not much forest there. That's not really something that's relevant to the current situation.
Fuel + Oxygen + Heat

Yes, I know Malibu and its terrain.
 
The "data" at the time. Hilarious Ed. The Earth is flat.

And no... Kids are not forced. To make such a statement is 100% false. You can say... SOME kids are forced, but definitely in no way are ALL kids forced.
Can your kids attend school, play sports if they aren't vaxed. I will tell you with absolute certainty Rolo's kids were vaxed for Polio and the rest at birth or soon after. Not some kids, all kids. They just tell you to play sports you have to have these vaccines.
 
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No it didn't. They were always chasing the latest mutation with covid, unlike with the influenza vaccines which are created from what is the most likely strain they see from the southern hemisphere each year.

The government (CDC specifically) lied so many times about the virus and completely lost their credibility. The damage they've done along with the rest of the healthcare corporations and Big Pharma will take years to repair.
Well when the vaccine came out, it was covid 19. There was a window before it mutated. We as a country didn't get enough shots in the arms. Are you saying that is not the case. Once it mutated to delta the horse was out of the barn, about time they were dealing with Rolo.

Rolo couldn't do the job he was hired to do, and he was worried about Gates putting a chip in his body. As like, who is Rolo....
 
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Update on the fire hydrants with no water. The storage tank(s) ran dry. The main power to the pump stations that refill the big reservoir is off due to fire damage. And the backup generator building was burned; total loss. Per my guy on the scene. It has nothing to do with Newsom, dams, or the state in any way. You could probably point a finger at the suburban water district for not sufficiently fireproofing the generator building...and that is something to be considered by other water districts, as well as when this one is rebuilt...but my somewhat informed guess is that no one planned on 100 mph gusts pushing the fire. It is possible that brush clearance was not adequate, but since I have not seen the building myself, I can't say for certain. And even with good brush clearance, enough wind can defeat a lot of clearance.
 
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Ed, the emergency use authorization did not require any data showing the vaccines would stop the spread.
Wait, are you saying the three trials, same as they do for other drugs, did not have data for the spread of covid 19? I want to make sure I am reading this correct?
 
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