On to the Mountain Schools
- Thread starter Rich Lewis
- Start date
Sweeping them would be nice, but as long as WSU either wins 19,20,21,22 wins, and goes about 13-7, 12-8, 11-9, tied for 3rd in conference, tied or alone in 4th in conference, and win at least 1 PAC tourny win, then there would be about a 59% to 63% chance of bubbling into NCAA tournament, even if lose 1 or both vs Utah, Colorado, tho doing the above would be harder to do without at least a split vs Utah, Colorado, and as long as it's only a very close loss, after a awesomely played game, vs 1 of the 2, while win, split vs the 2, then that ought to be enough to do enough to make NCAA tourny.
That's especially so if WSU beats USC, UCLA, Washington, Stanford in Pullman.
If WSU beats USC, UCLA, Washington, Stanford, Ore St, Cal, and either Utah or Colorado, and ASU in the 2nd half of PAC 12 schedule, and loses to Arizona, Oregon, Utah OR Colorado, during the 2nd half of PAC 12 schedule, then WSU would finish 21-10, 12-8 in conference, and probably finish tied for 4th in conference, and then if WSU were to then win 1 game in PAC 12 tournament, then WSU would be 22-10, 12-8 in conference, 4th in conference, and WSU would have about a 67% chance to bubble into NCAA tournament, even if WSU were to lose 1 game vs Utah Or Colorado, and not sweep them both, and even tho WSU lost a OVERTIME game to Cal
WSU only has to SWEEP, etc, if WSU wants to GUARANTEE A 100% CHANCE to Goto NCAA tournament, IF WSU wins 20,21,22,23,24 games, and finishes 13-7, 12-8 in conference, 2,3 in conference, 1,2 wins in PAC tournament, etc.
WSU does NOT have to SWEEP, and does NOT have to 100% GUARANTEE to make NCAA tournament.
A Split, and a 59% to 63% chance to Bubble into NCAA tournament, is good enough, altho would be nice if WSU does even better.
And WSU does NOT have to SWEEP OR win PAC 12 tournament, to make NCAA tournament.
1 or maybe 2 PAC 12 tournament wins is enough, and WSU does not have to win 3,4 PAC 12 tournament games and thus win PAC 12 tournament to make NCAA if WSU does not SWEEP Utah, Colorado.
Much needed blowout win. Nice contribution from Watts in the 2nd when they cut the lead.
Need to get the CU win Saturday.
Need to get the CU win Saturday.
Even if Utah were healthy, WSU would have won, even if only by 1, since WSU played AWESOME and won by 22, and if had made their freethrows, would have won by 30.
Only 8 turnovers all game, by WSU. WSU Dominated the boards. Also had LOTS of blocks. Good defense, only their 3 point shooting and Freethrow shooting was bad.
If WSU had made their 3's and freethrows, they would have won by 30 to 35 to 40, so even if Utah had been completely healthy, WSU still would have won.
Awesome win.
WSU beat the toughest of the mountain colleges, and have at least a split, with a ok to good chance at a sweep against Colorado, which is not as good as Utah.
Net should climb to 49,50.
A win vs Colorado, will probably get WSU to a NET of about 40.
Plenty of time to get that NET high enough to make the NCAA tournament.
A win vs Colorado would be nice, BUT if WSU plays well, loses a extremely close game to CU, WSU can still easily still goto NCAA tournament, without winning 4 games in PAC 12 tournament, without winning the PAC 12 tournament.
So altho a win vs CU would be nice, it's not guaranteed to be absolutely necessary.
But since WSU is 10-1 at home in Pullman, and since Colorado is not as good as Utah, WSU probably beats CU.
This is WSU’s 2nd Quad 1 win. BSU is still quad 2 and all our other Quad 1 games we lost. Colorado will be a quad 2 game as it sits right now. Really really easy to look this stuff up.
WASHINGTON ST. (PAC-12)
NET: 57
Previous: 55
Record: 13-6 (Conf: 4-4)
NET Ranks through Jan 23 2024 and Game Results through Jan 23 2024
Quad 1
Record: 1-3
| L | 64-76 | Neutral | (40) | Mississippi St. | |
| L | 58-80 | Away | (24) | Utah | |
| L | 67-74 | Away | (35) | Colorado | |
| W | 73-70 | Home | (3) | 8 Arizona |
Record: 3-1
| W | 66-61 | Neutral | (53) | Boise St. | |
| L | 84-89 | Home | (56) | Oregon | |
| W | 72-64 | Away | (90) | Southern California | |
| W | 89-75 | Away | (109) | Stanford |
Record: 2-2
| W | 78-57 | Neutral | (200) | Rhode Island | |
| W | 82-72 | Home | (112) | Eastern Wash. | |
| L | 61-69 | Neutral | (114) | Santa Clara | |
| L | 75-81* | Away | (136) | California |
Record: 7-0
| W | 84-59 | Home | (314) | Idaho | |
| W | 83-65 | Home | (285) | Prairie View | |
| W | 93-53 | Home | (261) | Utah Tech | |
| W | 71-61 | Home | (251) | Portland St. | |
| W | 86-49 | Home | (266) | UC Riverside | |
| W | 83-65 | Home | (313) | Grambling | |
| W | 65-58 | Home | (194) | Oregon St. |
Things looked bleak after Cal, they beat CU they are right back in the mix. Man that Cal game….woulda coulda shoulda but they might have had a chance to be ranked by next week!
In the NET, Utah dropped from 24 to 31. Now a Quad 2 win at the moment. CU now 26 from 35. If we beat CU do they become a Quad 2 win like Utah currently?
We simply need to win a lot. Captain Obvious, but other than when we play teams we have no control over what the other teams do the rest of the way. There are more potential bad losses than good wins in this conference. That's what makes being in a small bid league tough.
We simply need to win a lot. Captain Obvious, but other than when we play teams we have no control over what the other teams do the rest of the way. There are more potential bad losses than good wins in this conference. That's what makes being in a small bid league tough.
Dude, AT 1 POINT, THEY WERE QUAD 1, AT THE TIME. Even 1 TV announcer, and 1 Radio Announcer said they are or were Quad 1.
Quad 1 status, or Quad status CHANGES. Teams can be Quad 1, and then finish Quad 2,3. Teams can be Quad 2,3 and finish Quad 1.
The announcers were probably right at the time. What probably happened is that BSU was Quad 1, and then lost 1 or 2 games that made them Quad 2. And BSU will probably finish Quad 1, and win their conference and goto NCAA tournament.
In that sense, kind of way, BSU is or will be a Quad 1 level equivalent HIGH QUALITY, QUAD 1 LIKE QUALITY WIN, even if they technically temporarily aren't Quad 1 right now this very second.
As to looking it up or not, I am going to trust what I heard the TV and radio announcers said.
I'm not going to think that your going to be such a hard ass stickler, and then spend a lot of time looking it up just to satisfy your sticklerness, especially when I heard a TV and Radio Announcer say that BSU was a Quad 1 win.
Announcers and people make little mistakes. So sue me, and the announcers for making a mistake because we thought we were right, etc.
And your missing the point, that me and the announcers were making, that BSU, Arizona, Utah, were HIGH QUALITY, EITHER QUAD 1, OR WILL BE QUAD 1, ARE QUAD 1 LIKE EQUIVALENT, ETC, WINS.
And case you want to waste yours and mine and everyone else's time fact checking whether the announcers said what I said they said, and when they said that, and what game they said that, etc, I don't know when they said that, and don't know what game they said it in.
I don't write down what people like announcers, etc, say, and keep exact track of when, where they say it, just so that people like you can fact check it, etc.
And I am not going to go back, and re look up everything I see, just so that I have proof in case someone questions everything I say, fact checks everything I say.
Instead if I hear something, I am going to say something like: If a announcer says BSU is a Quad 1 win, I will say BSU is a Quad 1 win, or I heard that BSU is a Quad 1 win, or a announcer said that BSU is a Quad 1 win, etc.
Thanks for being such a hard ass stickler
Guess Utah is not a Quad 1, or guess we better not mistakenly say Utah is a Quad 1, or a certain stickler, will immediately take me to task and say that Utah is a Quad 2, and not a Quad 1, even tho Utah is a quad 1, and will be a Quad 1 AGAIN.
Last edited:
Last ABOUT 1,2,3 years PAC 12 had ABOUT 3,4,5 BIDS. And PAC 12 has been TOUGH vs other conference teams in NONCON, NCAA, NIT, etc, AND PAC 12 HAS MADE VERY DEEP NCAA TOURNAMENT, AND NIT RUNS.
So last 1,2,3 years, PAC 12 has NOT been a low bid conference.
PAC 12 will have Arizona, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, WSU, filling 4,5 spots, with Stanford, and WSU fighting for the same last 4th or 5th spot.
If WSU has about 20,21,22 wins overall before PAC tourny, and is about 13-7, 12-8, 11-9, in conference, and is tied for 3rd, or either tied for 4th or alone in 4th, or maybe even alone in 5th, before PAC tourny, and then wins 1,2 games in PAC tourny, instead of winning 4 games and winning PAC 12 tourny, and then having 21,22,23 wins by NCAA tourny, then if WSU does that, then WSU has about a 67% chance of bubbling into NCAA tourny.
WSU does NOT have to be PAC 12 tourny champion.
WSU does not have to WIN A LOT MORE GAMES, as WSU has already won a lot of games.
If WSU wins 6, 7 more games out of the next 11,12 games, and gets 1,2,3 more Quad 1 or 2, Quality wins, and does not lose to Cal a 2nd time, etc, then WSU would have about 20,21 wins, and would finish about 4th in conference, and would be about 12-8, 11-9, in conference, and then if WSU wins at least 1 game in PAC tourny, then WSU would have about a 50% to 60% chance to bubble into NCAA tourny.
Now if want a 100% GUARANTEE to make NCAA tourny, then you would be right that WSU would have to win A LOT MORE games, probably at least win about 8,9,10 games out of 11,12 games, and win 2,3 games in PAC 12 tourny, but at least wouldn't have to win 4, be tourny champ.
And the 2nd Half of WSU's PAC schedule, is EASIER then the TOUGH first half of WSU's PAC schedule, so WSU should be able to win 6,7 out of the 11,12 PAC games, etc, and have at least about 50% to 60% chance to bubble into NCAA tourny, barring injuries, etc.
I know there are others on this board that look at this more than I do. However, I always hear more like low 30s due to all the Conference AQs. We still have a lot work to do with a small margin of error.
9-2 down the stretch is optimistic…likely losses @Or and @Az. That gets you to 23. 7-4 probably minimum you’d need and then likely need a couple wins in the tourney. Anything less than 7 wins you probably need to win the tourney. Then a million scenarios in between.
Fun either way to be able to think about these scenarios this deep into the season. Feels like it’s been a while.
Damn, that’s a lot of AQs, didn’t realize that! Always helps when the a bunch of teams that are gonna get in anyways go ahead and win their conference too.
There are 32 AQs. Then there are a bunch from the P5 conferences that will get in. They may not be an AQ but might as well be. Given that the low 30s makes sense to me. I'm old so I don't pay attention to NETs or QUADs or KenPoms. I'm strictly a record guy. To me if you have 20+ wins and a winning conference record you should get in. Unfortunately they don't listen to me.
Then there's the unknown of conference Tournament upsets that impact at-large bids. I casually look at NET, etc as we get further into the year and we have a shot. There's a path for us, but we it's going to take us winning a lot down the stretch. Win at home, a road sweep, no blowouts, etc.
33 to 35 to 37 to 39 NET to Qualify DEPENDING on how many CRAPPY teams win their conference AQ bid. If a conference gets 1 NCAA bid, and that bid is a AQ bid that goes to conference tournament winner, and if the team that does that is a 10-20 team, instead of the first place team, and if that first place team is 30-0, and gets upset in conference tournament, then often both the 30-0 team AND the 10-20 AQ conference tournament champion both teams will go to NCAA tournament, which would cause there to be 1 less at large NCAA bid to goto to a deserving team.
Depending how often that kind of thing happens determines the minimum NET ranking. If those kind of things happen a lot, then need about a NET of about 33. If those things don't happen a lot, then about a NET of about 38,39 is needed to make NCAA tournament.
That's generally how it works. But if your in a WEAK conference, with a WEAK NONCON, and a WEAK CONFERENCE schedule, then not even 22 wins and a winning conference schedule is enough as ASU had both 22 wins, and a winning conference schedule, and was about 3rd, 4th in conference, and didn't get into NCAA tournament, and got SNUBBED because PAC 12 was down that year, and ASU had about the weakest Noncon in nation.
The difference between WSU and that ASU team, if do about same, is that the PAC 12 is a LOT stronger, up then the PAC 12 was back then during that year, season.
The rough approximate magic number is about 6,7 wins out of the next about 11,12 games, and then win about 1 maybe 2 wins in PAC 12 tournament. That combined with WSU not getting BLOWN OUT, AKA losing by 25 points, and NOT losing to Cal, etc, then WSU would be about 50% to 60% chance to make NCAA tournament.
That's not a LOT. Or at least that's not a LOT to me.
And WSU does not have to SWEEP ON ROAD, unless WSU loses to Cal again, or loses to Ore St, etc, easily winnable games at home in Pullman that should be won.
WSU just has to win about 65% to 75% to 85% of their games at home in Pullman, and about 33% to 43% to 53% of their games on the road.
If WSU sweeps at home about 50% of time, and splits on road about 50% of time, then that will probably be enough to win 6,7 more games out of 11,12 and have about 60% chance to bubble into NCAA.
That's not a LOT MORE work.
Yes there is SOME more work to be done.
You and others MAKE IT SOUND, SEEM LIKE WSU HAS TO WIN ABOUT MOST(73%) to almost all(93%), and either win 3 in PAC tournament, finish 2nd in conference, or be PAC tourny Champ to make NCAA tournament.
There is some mistake, wriggling, error room, just NOT a lot of room.
WSU does NOT have to be ALMOST PERFECT to make NCAA tournament
20,21,22 wins + 1 or 2 PAC tournament wins + 13-7, 12-8, 11-9 in conference, + tied for 4th in conference, + 2,3,4 Quad 1 or 2 wins + no more losses to Cal, etc, = NCAA tournament, and WSU only has to win 6,7, maybe 8 at worst, out of 11,12, to do that.
It's ok for WSU to lose to Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, and 1 other(NOT CAL, etc), and maybe 1 other(NOT CAL, etc)as WSU would Still make NCAA tournament.
Yes WSU nonconference was weak, but BSU will be Quad 1, and WSU had a Quad 2 win(Not BSU), and WSU's Conference schedule of Arizona, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, etc, is pretty bloody damn effin good
And the PAC 12, Arizona, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, WSU, is pretty damn good.
To show just how awesome the PAC 12 is this year. ASU which has been both weak,strong at times this year, season, has beaten 1,2,3, very EXTREMELY good teams in their Noncon schedule and did good vs Butler, BIG EAST, etc, and ASU will probably finish 7th or 8th in conference in PAC 12 this season.
Cal IS NOT back in mix. If you mean that WSU is back in Mix after beating Utah, losing to Cal in OVERTIME, and since Cal beat CU, then yes WSU back in mix.
Cal only has about 7 wins, all season long, and some extremely embarrassing losses. Cal is NOT in mix.
He did mean that WSU would be back in the mix if the Cougars beat CU.
Ha, Mik you kill me sometimes. Why would I give two shits if Cal’s in the mix?
Dammit Rich, I didn't realize the game was on last night. I just assumed it was tonight (Thursday). C'mon buddy, be more informative! What do you think your job is around here?
And I wasted the night watching Two and a half Men reruns. Although I did see a couple of Walden/Alan ones that I had never seen. I kind of quit watching after Charlie left.....
Well at least I can tune in to them again tonight!
Last edited:
Great show. Charlie Sheen>Austin Coochie though. Wasn’t the same after he left.
Yeah. Good one on right now. Herb and Celeste's (Jake's GF) monster dad hanging out, Judith (who I always thought was hot in a demure sort of way) and Jennifer on the rampage. And Charlie just playing himself.
Still does not excuse Rich for not informing us that the game was Wednesday not Thursday.
I think WSU beats 10,11-8 Stanford at home in Pullman, 9,10,11-8,9 Ore St, at home, in Pullman, 9,10-9,10,11 USC at home in Pullman, Cal at home in Pullman, 8,9,10-10,11,12,13, not going to make even CBI, UCLA at home in Pullman, UW at home, in Pullman. I think WSU beats ASU.
That's 7 wins.
I think WSU loses to Arizona, Oregon, CU, and 1 other
WSU could, can beat CU, and lose to ASU, instead of losing to CU, and beating ASU.
I think WSU wins 7 more games, and loses 4 more games, to go 7-4.
And then wins at least 1 game in PAC tourny , and then will have about a 55% chance to bubble into NCAA tourny
That's 7 wins.
I think WSU loses to Arizona, Oregon, CU, and 1 other
WSU could, can beat CU, and lose to ASU, instead of losing to CU, and beating ASU.
I think WSU wins 7 more games, and loses 4 more games, to go 7-4.
And then wins at least 1 game in PAC tourny , and then will have about a 55% chance to bubble into NCAA tourny
I had stopped watching the show by then. But in general, Kutcher is a horrible actor.
Similar threads
