Oregon State
- Thread starter kougkurt
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Weekend before thanksgiving even worse. These three combined and I’ll be surprised with an actual attendance of 15k
Anyone have some eye-opening stats that indicate we win this game besides home field advantage?
I don't have any stats but we clearly have the better team. This is just one of those years where we don't have the intangibles that get us over the hump. For us against OSU, we are equally bad on defense, but we are better on offense (usually). It will be no surprise if we win out, it will be less surprising for us to lose out. Lord only knows what's going to happen.
Clearly? That might be a bit of a stretch.
Sometimes bad is just bad. The Cougs are bad.
It's just a crazy year. We are a 2-3 plays per game away from 8-1 right now. Our record says we suck....so we do....but there are different levels of terrible out there. We are finding ways to lose games and if we do that against OSU.....we'll lose. If both teams play well, I think we win by two touchdowns. Honestly, Oregon State is playing far closer to their potential right now, so I will not be surprised if we lost to them, but that is more of an indication of our team playing below its potential than any statement of quality about the Beavs.
Credit to the Beavers in that they are playing as well as they can, but if we hadn't gacked against Cal, OSU would be 0-4 against teams with winning records and 4-1 against teams with losing records. They are not a good football team. Of course, the same thing goes for us. I just think we are a clear step above them.....if we quit making the glaring mistakes.
What at this point would lead you to believe that we won't find a way to lose against OSU as well?
I really want to be glass half full, but thus far there hasn't been a whole lot to justify that.
The game is at home on Dad's weekend, so there is that. I really hope they can elevate their level of play and pull out a win, but my suspicion is that if OSU punches back this team will fold. They don't have a backbone, and backbone is built on leadership, of which there is none.
Smith is a good coach, and I think he'll have the Beav ready to play. That being said, they are every bit as Jekyl and Hyde as the Cougs, so it'll be a battle of which team decides they want to show up and win.
This team is capable of winning the next three and capable of losing them all too.
Every November it seems like a number of games are lost more than won. The players start getting worn out. A championship is out of reach. A team that truly is better just doesn't show up. We've seen it. Even Wulff was able to take advantage of the opponent bringing it's C game a few times.
It's a matter of who wants, even though there is not necessarily a ton to play for. Furd, OSU and uw are all out of the North championship, just like we are.
Their turnover margin is really good and they have one of the leaders in TFL at 8. Well coached and getting better. BOLO! Be on the lookout.
Oh....don't get me wrong. I agree with you that this team has the capability to lose to anyone.
a.m. But don’t tell Oregon State. Everyone should be long gone by the time they show up.
Yup 1 win in conference is bad for attendance. You want a rockin stadium get your shit together and win games you should win
Their turnover margin is really good and they have one of the leaders in TFL at 8. Well coached and getting better. BOLO! Be on the lookout.
They've played a terribly easy schedule...easier than WSU's by far. They've played 3 decent teams, and those games were all at home:
Oklahoma State: L, 52-36
Utah: L, 52-7
UW: L, 19-7
They've also found ways to lose to Hawaii and Stanford (also in Corvallis). Their wins have come again Cal-Poly, UCLA, Cal and Arizona.
WSU lost to 2 of the teams that OSU beat. That does not make OSU a team that WSU should not beat, in Pullman, in November, in a must-win game. Nothing about Oregon State's schedule and results should trick anybody into believing that they are a good team. They are not. I'm not going to "BOLO", "be on the lookout" for that poopy-butt, stinky team. They only look "good" or "rising" because their record has been so abysmal for so long. If WSU loses at home to those turds it says far more about how bad they are than it does about how "good" OSU is.
Good stuff from 32eekortS in this thread (that username just rolls off the tongue).
Oregon State sucks. The offense can do some things but it's a bad team. They will, however, treat the game against us like something close to the Super Bowl (not quite to that level with Oregon coming up the next game, but pretty close). They did it last year. They know WSU is a beatable opponent and Smith seems to be prioritizing taking a shot against his NW rivals.
Oregon State sucks. The offense can do some things but it's a bad team. They will, however, treat the game against us like something close to the Super Bowl (not quite to that level with Oregon coming up the next game, but pretty close). They did it last year. They know WSU is a beatable opponent and Smith seems to be prioritizing taking a shot against his NW rivals.
Yes, not respecting your opponent is an excellent start to getting your ass beat.
The current cougs cannot disrespect anyone. A sub.500 team needs to be fighting for their lives. Should have would have could have does not cut it. The cougs need to concentrate on Stanford and the teams appear to be even;y matched.
Don't worry, I'm locked in. I'm getting my ass ready to sit in that chair all 3.5 hours with extensive practice beforehand at my sedentary job. I'll be ready to go.
Our defense just faced a bad QB who was missing key players on a bad offense and gave him his career high for TDs, their season high points scored, and one of their most productive nights for yards. Luton is better than Modster and has more talent around him.
I see nothing - nothing at all - that suggests they won't move the ball and put up points on us. Maybe a lot of points. I also don't see anything that wouldn't make me pretty confident if I was them - they were able to dispose of two teams that we couldn't, we're bad against the pass, we're not good against the run, we're not great at creating turnovers, and we don't have much of a pass rush.
Our defenses are similar, but theirs is slightly better against the run and the pass. They're 95th against the run, we're 97th - only 1 yard per game separates us Against the pass, they're 93rd, we're 98th - 9.5 yards different. Also close in scoring defense - we're 85th (30.1 ppg), they're 91st (30.9). We're both horrible on 3rd down - we're 106th, allowing conversions at a rate of 0.445. They're 122nd (0.474). They've only got 8 takeaways this year (5 INTs, 3 FRs), we've got 14 (6 INTs, 8 FRs). They've got 25 sacks on the year, we've got 19 (hard to put much significance to this without knowing how many dropbacks against each of us). Statistically, the defenses look to be just about equally bad. You could probably argue a slight edge either direction.
Offensively, we're pretty strong. First in passing offense (433.1 ypg) against their 62nd (235.8). 7th in total offense (510.9), they are 76th (396.3). 10th in scoring offense (39.3), they are 57th (30.7). We've only given up 10 sacks, they've given up 20. Our pass completion rate is 70.4%, theirs is 61.2%.
They have us beat in three categories:
Rushing offense - they are 70th at 160.6 ypg, we are 126th at 77.8 ypg.
3rd down conversion rate - they are 30th, converting 44.5% of the time. We're 90th, at 37.1%.
Turnover margin - even though their defense doesn't take it away, they are +5 because they lead the nation in taking care of the ball - their offense has turned it over 3 times all season (all INTs). We are -1, with Gordon's 10 picks and we've coughed it up 5 times.
Unfortunately, the categories they beat us in are critical ones. We're bad against the run, they're not terrible running it. They've got two different RBs who both average over 5 yards per carry. They'll get 7-8 against us. They convert at a solid rate on 3rd down, we don't defend it well. And our biggest defensive advantage - takeaways - is negated because they just don't turn it over.
Our offense should move well against them. But we have to avoid anything more than 3rd & medium. I think that means Borghi needs to get 15+ handoffs. He should be able to reliably pick up 5-7 yards against them, eliminating most of the 3rd & long situations that we suck at converting. If we get behind the chains, it's going to go badly, because their offense is going to click against us - really well - and we're not going to be able to get them off the field. Our offense has to come out ready, and we need to put up 7 every time we touch the ball. Anything less will leave the door open for the Beavers.
EDIT: One more detail. This team is mentally weak. If Stanford beats us, they will pack it in for the season and it becomes 70/30 the Beavers win. Beating the trees flips that script, and makes it 70/30 we beat the Beavers.
I see nothing - nothing at all - that suggests they won't move the ball and put up points on us. Maybe a lot of points. I also don't see anything that wouldn't make me pretty confident if I was them - they were able to dispose of two teams that we couldn't, we're bad against the pass, we're not good against the run, we're not great at creating turnovers, and we don't have much of a pass rush.
Our defenses are similar, but theirs is slightly better against the run and the pass. They're 95th against the run, we're 97th - only 1 yard per game separates us Against the pass, they're 93rd, we're 98th - 9.5 yards different. Also close in scoring defense - we're 85th (30.1 ppg), they're 91st (30.9). We're both horrible on 3rd down - we're 106th, allowing conversions at a rate of 0.445. They're 122nd (0.474). They've only got 8 takeaways this year (5 INTs, 3 FRs), we've got 14 (6 INTs, 8 FRs). They've got 25 sacks on the year, we've got 19 (hard to put much significance to this without knowing how many dropbacks against each of us). Statistically, the defenses look to be just about equally bad. You could probably argue a slight edge either direction.
Offensively, we're pretty strong. First in passing offense (433.1 ypg) against their 62nd (235.8). 7th in total offense (510.9), they are 76th (396.3). 10th in scoring offense (39.3), they are 57th (30.7). We've only given up 10 sacks, they've given up 20. Our pass completion rate is 70.4%, theirs is 61.2%.
They have us beat in three categories:
Rushing offense - they are 70th at 160.6 ypg, we are 126th at 77.8 ypg.
3rd down conversion rate - they are 30th, converting 44.5% of the time. We're 90th, at 37.1%.
Turnover margin - even though their defense doesn't take it away, they are +5 because they lead the nation in taking care of the ball - their offense has turned it over 3 times all season (all INTs). We are -1, with Gordon's 10 picks and we've coughed it up 5 times.
Unfortunately, the categories they beat us in are critical ones. We're bad against the run, they're not terrible running it. They've got two different RBs who both average over 5 yards per carry. They'll get 7-8 against us. They convert at a solid rate on 3rd down, we don't defend it well. And our biggest defensive advantage - takeaways - is negated because they just don't turn it over.
Our offense should move well against them. But we have to avoid anything more than 3rd & medium. I think that means Borghi needs to get 15+ handoffs. He should be able to reliably pick up 5-7 yards against them, eliminating most of the 3rd & long situations that we suck at converting. If we get behind the chains, it's going to go badly, because their offense is going to click against us - really well - and we're not going to be able to get them off the field. Our offense has to come out ready, and we need to put up 7 every time we touch the ball. Anything less will leave the door open for the Beavers.
EDIT: One more detail. This team is mentally weak. If Stanford beats us, they will pack it in for the season and it becomes 70/30 the Beavers win. Beating the trees flips that script, and makes it 70/30 we beat the Beavers.
Just having fun with it. I wouldn't want the Cougs to be overconfident and think there's something to prevailing sentiment on social media and boards having the potential to impact the squad, actually. I have a hard time seeing this squad being overconfident against Oregon State this year, in any case.
But the REASON we are 2-3 plays away is something that can't be fixed at this point.
Leadership.
Haha, what a great response to a previous silly statement. What the hell does it matter if we, the fans, disrespect the opponent? We’re not playing.
This is all fine and dandy and yes, Oregon State is capable of beating WSU. Absolutely. I think this says more about WSU mentally than it does about OSU and their “talent.” WSU is a better team. They’re at home. They’ve beaten OSU 5 consecutive times and 11/23/19 should be #6. As mentioned, WSU is void of leadership and their defense is pathetically...pathetic. They very well may drop this game. If they do, it’s not because OSU is “good” or “talented” or “on the rise.” It will be because WSU is shit show capable of losing to a poopy-butt, stinky, half-of-a-dimension-team. They just did that against Cal and they did it against UCLA. Nobody can convince me that those two teams are “better” than WSU.
