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Predicting the PAC football season 2018

cr8zyncalif

cr8zyncalif

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I see 3 teams with realistic shots at winning the league:

UW (should be the league favorite barring major injury issue)
USC (strongest in the south)
& Stanford (no specific strength other than a good rushing tradition; but just as important, no specific weaknesses)
.
I see 4 teams that might challenge and will probably go to a bowl, each for different reasons:

UCLA (Chip is a good coach and has some residual talent on the roster, but no clear "Kelly Quarterback", which will probably hamper them this year)
Oregon (picking this team for 2018 is sort of like throwing a dart at a spinning wheel; you can make a case either way and it is unlikely that they will be either as good or as bad as they might look)
ASU (always a hard team to figure, but the roster is not bare and it is hard to win there, especially in hot weather)
& WSU (Established offensive system & HC; Reasonably well stocked roster; favorable home schedule; but questions at QB and D line)

I see 2 teams that might reach bowl eligibility:

Utah (too many weaknesses but still tough to beat at home)
& Arizona (bound to be an unpopular prediction...has some good pieces but will struggle to make a bowl...and that is just as much because of the rest of the teams in the league as it is due to the situation in Tucson. Sumlin will have Tate...but not a lot else on O, and the PAC figured out how to stop Tate at the end of last season...so I think the optimism in Tucson is overblown, at least for 2018)

I see 3 teams who will not go bowling:

OSU (turmoil has cost them)
Cal (consistently under-performs)
& Colorado (back to rebuilding mode).
 
Last edited:
cr8zyncalif said:
I see 3 teams with realistic shots at winning the league:

& WSU (Established offensive system & HC; Reasonably well stocked roster; favorable home schedule; but questions at QB and D line)

.
Click to expand...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't CML the #2 Pac-12 coach in terms of longevity (behind Whittingham)? Haven't seen that since - what - Price I guess. And he was here for 13 years. Before that it was probably Babe Hollingbery?
 
cr8zyncalif said:
Yes, that was interesting. Thank you for the link. The Cougs don't play UCLA, so the Bruins are not on the list, and I think they drank too much Koolaid in Tucson. Otherwise the points made are reasonable.
Click to expand...
I thought the Arizona grade was a bit surprising... While they seem to always be a tossup for us, so many times they just aren't good. They seem to be that team that haunts CML. "The one we should win but don't." But an A-? Better than USC? I just don't see it but I don't really dive too deep with them.
 
Stanford has the best running back in the Nation, a good young young QB, and an always elite offensive line. They beat UW last season, so it's not a stretch to seed the P12N this way:

1) UW
1) Stanford
3) Oregon
4) WSU
4) Cal
6) Oregon State
 
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CougPatrol said:
Stanford has the best running back in the Nation, a good young young QB, and an always elite offensive line. They beat UW last season, so it's not a stretch to seed the P12N this way:

1) UW
1) Stanford
3) Oregon
4) WSU
4) Cal
6) Oregon State
Click to expand...
Agreed with the possible exception that we have had Oregon's number. They can have all the top talent in the world. And now with their coaching fiasco? They will be good but I think we still "got 'em". Even with all of our turnover.
 
CougPatrol said:
Stanford has the best running back in the Nation, a good young young QB, and an always elite offensive line. They beat UW last season, so it's not a stretch to seed the P12N this way:

1) UW
1) Stanford
3) Oregon
4) WSU
4) Cal
6) Oregon State
Click to expand...

Seems reasonable
 
Coug95man2 said:
Agreed with the possible exception that we have had Oregon's number. They can have all the top talent in the world. And now with their coaching fiasco? They will be good but I think we still "got 'em". Even with all of our turnover.
Click to expand...

I agree with 95man. Patrol, your seeding is reasonable, with the possible exception of us beating Oregon. And 95man's reasoning makes sense. Personally at this point I think Oregon/WSU is a coin flip. I really can't predict the duckies. Too many variables and not enough equations, as my math prof used to say.
 
As of today, I’d say Oregon has a better offense than we do. That’s subjective highly variable, but that’s where I’d bet today.

Last years game doesn’t count. What was that kids name? Burmeister? Making his first start against us was a highly favorable data point for us.
 
CougPatrol said:
As of today, I’d say Oregon has a better offense than we do. That’s subjective highly variable, but that’s where I’d bet today.

Last years game doesn’t count. What was that kids name? Burmeister? Making his first start against us was a highly favorable data point for us.
Click to expand...

Remind us where you currently live?

~ Thanks
 
At this stage here's how I read the Pac in terms of how "good" each team is likely to be, which doesn't necessarily correlate with how they'll finish (schedule, injuries, etc).

North

1. UW. They're tops until somebody knocks them off, and nobody except Stanford seems able to at the moment. Program also seems steady

2. Stanford. For this year. They may be due for a bit of a fall next season, anyway.

3. Oregon. This is purely on talent, and their coaching situation didn't change as dramatically as say, the Arizona schools did.

4. Cal. Again, talent alone.

5. WSU. On par with Cal in talent, but not as much experience in key places and more shuffling in the coaching staff.

6. Oregon State. In the worst shape in the conference, and it's not close.

South

1. USC. Talent and stable coaching. I think they'll be better in November than they will be in September.

2. Utah. See above regarding stability, but with lesser talent. Whittingham's teams almost always show up.

3. Arizona. I know cr8zy isn't sold on them, but this could be a lightning in a bottle situation if the talent adapts quickly to the new staff. They played a TON of youngsters last year and they have some talent.

4. UCLA. I think this transition takes longer than Arizona, and Chip needs a running game. I'm not convinced his current offensive line personnel can provide that.

5. Arizona State. I'm not really sure what's going on here. They have some talent. They always do. But Herm Edwards is either gonna be a great hire or he's gonna get himself and the AD canned in short order. I'm inclined to lean toward the latter.

6. Colorado. I like McIntyre and I think he'll be ok here in the long term, but the Buffs have a lot of pieces to replace. I fully expect ASU to replace them in the South cellar in 2019.

UW is the best overall team in the conference. This is a transition year for the Cougs. .500 and a minor bowl would be a success. If the roster develops nicely, they could take a big step up next season. Not exactly reloading, but certainly not the cyclic misery we used to endure.
 
random soul said:
At this stage here's how I read the Pac in terms of how "good" each team is likely to be, which doesn't necessarily correlate with how they'll finish (schedule, injuries, etc).

North

1. UW. They're tops until somebody knocks them off, and nobody except Stanford seems able to at the moment. Program also seems steady

2. Stanford. For this year. They may be due for a bit of a fall next season, anyway.

3. Oregon. This is purely on talent, and their coaching situation didn't change as dramatically as say, the Arizona schools did.

4. Cal. Again, talent alone.

5. WSU. On par with Cal in talent, but not as much experience in key places and more shuffling in the coaching staff.

6. Oregon State. In the worst shape in the conference, and it's not close.

South

1. USC. Talent and stable coaching. I think they'll be better in November than they will be in September.

2. Utah. See above regarding stability, but with lesser talent. Whittingham's teams almost always show up.

3. Arizona. I know cr8zy isn't sold on them, but this could be a lightning in a bottle situation if the talent adapts quickly to the new staff. They played a TON of youngsters last year and they have some talent.

4. UCLA. I think this transition takes longer than Arizona, and Chip needs a running game. I'm not convinced his current offensive line personnel can provide that.

5. Arizona State. I'm not really sure what's going on here. They have some talent. They always do. But Herm Edwards is either gonna be a great hire or he's gonna get himself and the AD canned in short order. I'm inclined to lean toward the latter.

6. Colorado. I like McIntyre and I think he'll be ok here in the long term, but the Buffs have a lot of pieces to replace. I fully expect ASU to replace them in the South cellar in 2019.

UW is the best overall team in the conference. This is a transition year for the Cougs. .500 and a minor bowl would be a success. If the roster develops nicely, they could take a big step up next season. Not exactly reloading, but certainly not the cyclic misery we used to endure.
Click to expand...

Agree overall. The only thing that I'm not sold on is that "UW is the best overall team in the conference". USC has to replace their QB and they have struggled with depth for years since the NCAA dropped the hammer on them but they won the conference in 2017 and beat UW in 2016. The overall sentiment is that USC would have knocked off the mutts again in 2016 if they hadn't gacked away three early games that kept them out of the Pac-12 championship. UW is clearly ahead of us and Peterson is a damned good coach, but Stanford and USC have in general been better than the mutts head to head. Until the mutts can prove that they really are better, I'm gonna wait. They lost a few critical players on defense and while they've successfully plugged in new guys the last couple years, I will not be surprised to see Stanford smack them in the mouth again and I certainly would not be surprised to see USC give them a beatdown in the Pac-12 championship game if they meet there.

The mutts probably are the best team on paper right now, but we'll see how it plays out on the field. The only guarantee for the mutts is that they are going to pummel us again. Until we stop that from happening, gotta assume it's gonna continue.
 
Flatlandcoug said:
Agree overall. The only thing that I'm not sold on is that "UW is the best overall team in the conference". USC has to replace their QB and they have struggled with depth for years since the NCAA dropped the hammer on them but they won the conference in 2017 and beat UW in 2016. The overall sentiment is that USC would have knocked off the mutts again in 2016 if they hadn't gacked away three early games that kept them out of the Pac-12 championship. UW is clearly ahead of us and Peterson is a damned good coach, but Stanford and USC have in general been better than the mutts head to head. Until the mutts can prove that they really are better, I'm gonna wait. They lost a few critical players on defense and while they've successfully plugged in new guys the last couple years, I will not be surprised to see Stanford smack them in the mouth again and I certainly would not be surprised to see USC give them a beatdown in the Pac-12 championship game if they meet there.

The mutts probably are the best team on paper right now, but we'll see how it plays out on the field. The only guarantee for the mutts is that they are going to pummel us again. Until we stop that from happening, gotta assume it's gonna continue.
Click to expand...

Flat, I am no Husky or Peterson adherent, but based on what I've seen on the field I'd have to give UW top position, not just on paper, but overall. However, your points about USC are completely valid, particularly the fact that their roster depletion due to probation has pretty much run its course and they are back to a full roster. I don't see the QB that SC would need to win the league this year, but who knows? Maybe he will show up. As for Stanford, they are steady Eddie, but they lost a lot of their stars this year. I don't see them beating UW unless the Huskies stumble.

And Random, I think your logic is valid but I never underestimate the ability of Cal to underperform. If they exceed expectations this year it will be a surprise. Even a bigger surprise to me than the Cougs beating Oregon and ending up 3rd in the north. But nothing is impossible, and any of the above might happen. It is only May, after all.
 
I like the 4th place predicted finish for the cougs. The potential rise in the O line is due to the coaching change, There is a huge potential for improvement at the QB position. The D line will be well coached . The experience factor is the only question mark on the season. Hopefully the new coaches will make a huge difference in the performance of the respective units
 
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