At 0-3, I agree that we'd all be upset. Not sure I'd call it strike 2. I think 2 seasons here would create significant rumblings, and 3 years may end in the bread line.
- 0-3 wins: everyone freaks, season is regarded as Strike 2 for CML (having skipped Strike 1), unofficial ultimatums issued for 2019, CML would be fired after 2-3 years of this.
- 4-6 wins: half the fans freak, season is regarded as a rebuilding year, CML loses a couple fans but could continue on this trajectory for 4+ more years.
- 7 wins: frustrated fans feel like we're taking a step back, other fans step in to remind that we're still over 0.500 and ask if cynics want to return to our abysmal win/bowl history, CML could do this for 5+ more years
- 8-9 wins: season is generally regarded as a competitive one, but some fans start to get impatient that we can't take things to the next level. CML could last 10-15 years here.
- 10+ wins: fanbase gets progressively higher expectations, but CML would die on the field before he gets fired racking up this many wins.
I'd edit your 2nd category and make it 4-5 wins. Without being able to point at a series of key injuries, I think this leads to the bread line in the 4 years you reference.
6-7 wins: Your description is probably accurate, this wouldn't feel very satisfying to many. But 6-7 wins every year means a bowl every year, I think he could survive at that level. If we're 6-6 and in minor bowls for 5 years, I don't think the seat gets hot, but the natives are restless, he doesn't get raises/extensions, and as long as there's a decent coach available at the end of 5, nobody is that upset if he's replaced. But I don't think he gets canned.
8-9 wins: Those who are complaining about the next step are seriously outnumbered by those who remember when an 8 win season was outstanding. With 8-9 wins per year, Leach retires from WSU.
10+ wins: A statue of Leach gets built outside the stadium, and fans burn ritual sacrifices in front of it. FOB becomes the Leach Center. Mascot gets renamed Mike. Every coach for the next 50 years is compared to him.