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Strategic thinking RE: Pac-10/12 future alignment

ttowncoug

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It's being rumored that the conference is still not in alignment with what's on the table regarding the new TV deal and/or the possibilities to add to the conference. (per the twitters).

From my perspective, why not hire a consulting firm to evaluate creating alignment and a super conference that's been discussed. As Moos stated last summer, doing something with the Big-12 makes a lot of logical and logical sense.
 
It's being rumored that the conference is still not in alignment with what's on the table regarding the new TV deal and/or the possibilities to add to the conference. (per the twitters).

From my perspective, why not hire a consulting firm to evaluate creating alignment and a super conference that's been discussed. As Moos stated last summer, doing something with the Big-12 makes a lot of logical and logical sense.
The Big XII has to be on board with it. Without Texas and OK, we're talking big hat no cattle. Of course, I'm sure the Big XII would say the same about the Pac-12 without USC.
 
The Big XII has to be on board with it. Without Texas and OK, we're talking big hat no cattle. Of course, I'm sure the Big XII would say the same about the Pac-12 without USC.
Yeah, I'm with you on this Gibby. To go further, what appeals about the Big-12? The state of Kansas? West Virginia? Both states have (way) fewer citizens than ANY Pac-12 state. Oklahoma too, although closer to Oregon in population than the others. Same with Iowa.
 
It's being rumored that the conference is still not in alignment with what's on the table regarding the new TV deal and/or the possibilities to add to the conference. (per the twitters).

From my perspective, why not hire a consulting firm to evaluate creating alignment and a super conference that's been discussed. As Moos stated last summer, doing something with the Big-12 makes a lot of logical and logical sense.

Consulting firm? Oh my God please no.
 
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Consulting firm? Oh my God please no.

I'm not so certain the conference Presidents, nor the commish, would get the ball rolling in this direction.

I think we need to do something bold. The status quo, plus SDSU and UNLV, isn't alone going to position us for future success.
 
I'm not so certain the conference Presidents, nor the commish, would get the ball rolling in this direction.

I think we need to do something bold. The status quo, plus SDSU and UNLV, isn't alone going to position us for future success.
I continue to disagree. And continue to scoff at the notion of the Big-12 being our savior. How many teams have bailed from the Big-12 in recent years? Let's see - Nebraska, A&M, Missouri, now Texas and Oklahoma. Does that tell you anything? And the Big-12 has been reuniting with the one-time castoffs from the Southwest Conference. And Cincinatti? #65 in population.

San Diego - 8th largest city in the country. Las Vegas - 25th. Both with brand new stadiums and desirable destination locations.

We just need to grab these two and stay in our footprint. Although San Jose is #10 so maybe we should grab them. Although I don't think Stanford and Cal would like that,

 
I continue to disagree. And continue to scoff at the notion of the Big-12 being our savior. How many teams have bailed from the Big-12 in recent years? Let's see - Nebraska, A&M, Missouri, now Texas and Oklahoma. Does that tell you anything? And the Big-12 has been reuniting with the one-time castoffs from the Southwest Conference. And Cincinatti? #65 in population.

San Diego - 8th largest city in the country. Las Vegas - 25th. Both with brand new stadiums and desirable destination locations.

We just need to grab these two and stay in our footprint. Although San Jose is #10 so maybe we should grab them. Although I don't think Stanford and Cal would like that,

F Cal and Stanford. In general... they suck at sports. Piss level attendance and care. They aren't what they used to be.

If they want to come along for the new Super Friends Hall of Justice Conference fine, but I think UNLV, San Diego, Fresno State are sexier.
 
F Cal and Stanford. In general... they suck at sports. Piss level attendance and care. They aren't what they used to be.

If they want to come along for the new Super Friends Hall of Justice Conference fine, but I think UNLV, San Diego, Fresno State are sexier.
Well, tell that to the lady Cougs - now 0-72 lifetime against Stanford. And Stanford wins that - what is it called, the College Cup? - pretty much every year. Of course they field about 50 different teams so they have a leg up.
 
Well, tell that to the lady Cougs - now 0-72 lifetime against Stanford. And Stanford wins that - what is it called, the College Cup? - pretty much every year. Of course they field about 50 different teams so they have a leg up.
You really think that will move the needle on a new conference?

Gag me with a spoon.
 
I continue to disagree. And continue to scoff at the notion of the Big-12 being our savior. How many teams have bailed from the Big-12 in recent years? Let's see - Nebraska, A&M, Missouri, now Texas and Oklahoma. Does that tell you anything? And the Big-12 has been reuniting with the one-time castoffs from the Southwest Conference. And Cincinatti? #65 in population.

San Diego - 8th largest city in the country. Las Vegas - 25th. Both with brand new stadiums and desirable destination locations.

We just need to grab these two and stay in our footprint. Although San Jose is #10 so maybe we should grab them. Although I don't think Stanford and Cal would like that,

Colorado bailed out of the Big XII too. Not sure that Missouri was ever in the Big XII. I think Missouri went from the Big 8 to the SEC, but I'm not going to bother to look it up.
 
How the deal is structured is all open. You could simply create a new media holding company. It doesn't have to be an athletic conference per se.

I for one, think if you had say 6 Pac-12 games, plus say 4 Big12/Pac12 crossover games, that would create some good TV match ups....which is what this is all about. That would leave 2 non-conference games vs. smaller schools to fill the schedule. Of the 6 Pac-12 games, three would be automatic based on geography (Oregon, OSU, and UW). Put the other 3 on some sort of rotating schedule. Is anyone really gonig to be upset we don't travel to Stanford every other year? NOPE.

We have learned the handshake deals don't work.

We need something more integrated and being in a common conference seems the most logical.

The other thing is monetizing the Pac-12 network. If we added the Big-12 it would.
 
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I continue to disagree. And continue to scoff at the notion of the Big-12 being our savior. How many teams have bailed from the Big-12 in recent years? Let's see - Nebraska, A&M, Missouri, now Texas and Oklahoma. Does that tell you anything? And the Big-12 has been reuniting with the one-time castoffs from the Southwest Conference. And Cincinatti? #65 in population.

San Diego - 8th largest city in the country. Las Vegas - 25th. Both with brand new stadiums and desirable destination locations.

We just need to grab these two and stay in our footprint. Although San Jose is #10 so maybe we should grab them. Although I don't think Stanford and Cal would like that,

Population means nothing. What matters to the sports media is how many people watch, which is why the Jayhawks get Big Mondays on ESPN each year. This is why the Big 12 has no interest in SDSU or Boise St. or UNLV. No one cares, no one watches. You want to have the Cougs get even less money? Bring in SDSU or UNLV and further discount the PAC. It's why the Big 12 took BYU. They bring the money. Simple math.
 
T-Town you nailed it with your bold move prediction.

Sounds like Kiakloff is getting ready to lock down SMU for the Pac.

Could be a real recruiting and exposure boost in DFW for the Cougs
 
I continue to disagree. And continue to scoff at the notion of the Big-12 being our savior. How many teams have bailed from the Big-12 in recent years? Let's see - Nebraska, A&M, Missouri, now Texas and Oklahoma. Does that tell you anything? And the Big-12 has been reuniting with the one-time castoffs from the Southwest Conference. And Cincinatti? #65 in population.

San Diego - 8th largest city in the country. Las Vegas - 25th. Both with brand new stadiums and desirable destination locations.

We just need to grab these two and stay in our footprint. Although San Jose is #10 so maybe we should grab them. Although I don't think Stanford and Cal would like that,


Loyal,

What about adding SDSU, UNLV and SMU + Houston or Rice to move the Pac toward a super-conference?

Four great markets would be pretty desireable right (and buffer the conference if any additional raids were to occur)?
 
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T-Town you nailed it with your bold move prediction.

Sounds like Kiakloff is getting ready to lock down SMU for the Pac.

Could be a real recruiting and exposure boost in DFW for the Cougs
Nobody cares about SMU either. 232,000 average TV viewers in 2022, which would put them dead last in the PAC-12.

On the plus side, they get more viewers than any of SDSU, Fresno, or UNLV.
 
Loyal,

What about adding SDSU, UNLV and SMU + Houston or Rice to move the Pac toward a super-conference?

Four great markets would be pretty desireable right (and buffer the conference if any additional raids were to occur)?
Houston draws enough viewers for 9th in the PAC-12. The others would be 12th by a wide margin.

Houston’s already heading for the Big 12.

Market doesn’t matter when nobody watches. And in their respective markets, nobody’s watching these teams.
 
I'm not so certain the conference Presidents, nor the commish, would get the ball rolling in this direction.

I think we need to do something bold. The status quo, plus SDSU and UNLV, isn't alone going to position us for future success.

I think we could gather a group of 5 people chosen at random from a phone book (if those existed anymore) and they'd be better than any consultant group we could hire.
 
I'm telling you guys...

If we made a Super Conference with teams all over the country to somewhat "spite" the megas... it would change how many people watch and how much advertisers would pay.

The concept of being too spread out is laughable. A 3 hour flight with a 1 1/2 hour drive isn't different than a 4 hour flight with a 1/2 hour drive.

People have all sorts of methods to watch games off the normal work schedule and for that matter... covid pretty much demolished the "normal" work schedule.

I also have very little faith in population GROWTH in California vs. Texas, Florida, etc...

Now get off my lawn
 
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Houston draws enough viewers for 9th in the PAC-12. The others would be 12th by a wide margin.

Houston’s already heading for the Big 12.

Market doesn’t matter when nobody watches. And in their respective markets, nobody’s watching these teams.
Well I'm no media market expert, but is it possible that schools like San Diego State and UNLV might become more attractive to fans as Pac-12 schools? Both eyes on TV's and visiting fans in their stadiums?

I'm sure as F not going to go on a road visit to SMU, Houston or Rice. San Diego or Vegas? Much more likely.
 
T-Town you nailed it with your bold move prediction.

Sounds like Kiakloff is getting ready to lock down SMU for the Pac.

Could be a real recruiting and exposure boost in DFW for the Cougs

I saw this also. Meeting tomorrow.
 
Well I'm no media market expert, but is it possible that schools like San Diego State and UNLV might become more attractive to fans as Pac-12 schools? Both eyes on TV's and visiting fans in their stadiums?

I'm sure as F not going to go on a road visit to SMU, Houston or Rice. San Diego or Vegas? Much more likely.
You mean, are people on the historically ambivalent west coast going to change their habits because a couple of teams switch leagues?

No, probably not to a significant degree.

And really….most of these teams could double their viewership and still be in the lower 1/4 of the conference.
 
You mean, are people on the historically ambivalent west coast going to change their habits because a couple of teams switch leagues?

No, probably not to a significant degree.

And really….most of these teams could double their viewership and still be in the lower 1/4 of the conference.
Well, maybe that says something, eh? The west coast doesn't care about football that much, so why are we trying to lure other time zone schools in? It's not going to change the dynamic of the conference as it sits today. Even the traitors from LA don't fill their stadiums. Shit, we can't fill our now 33,000 stadium most games.

So we add SMU? WTF does that do? Not a goddam thing. I am officially underimpressed with our new commissioner. Keep us on the west coast. Going to Texas isn't going to do shit for the conference.
 
SMU as the only Texas school makes little sense to me. If they could lure someone else like TTech or TCU, maybe but I don’t see that happening.
 
Expansion? That means a smaller piece of the TV revenue pie for each team. The only expansion that make sense is one that makes the TV revenue pie bigger. What schools do that? None that I can think of. Having to share that revenue pie further killed Big-10 interest in UW and Oregon, and led them to eye the Cal and Stanford, the only schools that are worth far more than the revenue hit.

The Commissioner needs to talk expansion with schools, only to see if the networks would pay more if XY and Z are added. The Commissioner must focus on a more "eat what you kill" revenue sharing within the conference, that is what the all the talk about leaving is about, the era "equal" revenue sharing is dead.

Honestly, just because the Big 12 is panicking by diluting with BYU, Cincy, Houston and UCF doesn't mean the Pac-10 should. Honestly, do you really think the Pac-10 schools want to move to the Big-12, that has no flagship schools left? It is a negotiation bluff, no more.
 
F Cal and Stanford. In general... they suck at sports. Piss level attendance and care. They aren't what they used to be.

If they want to come along for the new Super Friends Hall of Justice Conference fine, but I think UNLV, San Diego, Fresno State are sexier.
You cannot possibly be serious
 
Expansion? That means a smaller piece of the TV revenue pie for each team. The only expansion that make sense is one that makes the TV revenue pie bigger. What schools do that? None that I can think of. Having to share that revenue pie further killed Big-10 interest in UW and Oregon, and led them to eye the Cal and Stanford, the only schools that are worth far more than the revenue hit.

The Commissioner needs to talk expansion with schools, only to see if the networks would pay more if XY and Z are added. The Commissioner must focus on a more "eat what you kill" revenue sharing within the conference, that is what the all the talk about leaving is about, the era "equal" revenue sharing is dead.

Honestly, just because the Big 12 is panicking by diluting with BYU, Cincy, Houston and UCF doesn't mean the Pac-10 should. Honestly, do you really think the Pac-10 schools want to move to the Big-12, that has no flagship schools left? It is a negotiation bluff, no more.

Isn’t that a given
 
Mentioning this is like talking to brick walls.

Perceived stability is almost everything.

PAC 12(soon to be 10), got raided, lost USC, UCLA. THAT MAKES PAC 12/10 VULNERABLE TO BEING RAIDED AGAIN AND LOSING OREGON, UW, STANFORD, and becoming the PAC 7, instead of PAC 12/10, because of the PERCEIVED VULNERABILITY, lack of stability of PAC, now that lost USC, UCLA.

By adding SDSU, SMU:

1. That gets PERCEIVED by the media, college football world as stabilizing expanding, etc, and because of that the PAC will probably be less likely to be raided of Oregon, UW, Stanford etc.

2. Even if the PAC does get raided, lose those teams, etc, PAC 12 would be at a survivable life support, PAC 10, instead of a DEAD PAC 7, that others start feeding frenzy off of.

3. Adding SDSU and SMU will, can create the opportunity, chance to semi successfully negotiate a BETTER MEDIA deal, so that even tho adding more members it's not lessening the pie share per each of the existing PAC colleges in the PAC now.

4. And SDSU and SMU could take lesser shares, that would help prevent the current PAC colleges from having the pie amount to them after improved media deal, be less then what getting now. Less Shares to SDSU, SMU, would help prevent that.

5. Once all the above is done, there would be a better chance of joint ACC/PAC media deal alliance that would increase the pie that PAC gets.

6. After that done. PAC could maybe get ISU OR AN OR TTU from Big 12.

7. DFW is one of the HOTTEST recruiting areas in nation.

8. SMU used to be in the same conference with Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc, and SMU used to be BIG TIME FOOTBALL.

IT CAN BE AGAIN SOMEDAY if it joins the PAC or Big 12.


But even if the above were to be not true, and adding SDSU, SMU is pointless and shouldn't add them, and stay at PAC 10:

Then the PAC 10 either DIES and gets eaten up by Big 12 and Big 10, and becomes PAC 7, then PAC 5, and dies, etc, or becomes the PAC 7/5 merges with MWC and either dies, or becomes IRRELEVANT, OR it becomes a G5,6, group of 5, group of 6, level, NON P5, PAC 10.

The ONLY WAY THE PAC SURVIVES, STAYS RELEVANT AS A P5 CONFERENCE IS BY EXPANDING TO 12, 14, 16, by adding SDSU, SMU, negotiating a BETTER MEDIA DEAL, doing a joint ACC/PAC deal, getting either an or ISU, TTU from Big 12, and STABILIZING or at least having everybody thinking PAC is STABILIZING even if it weren't stabilizing.


ITS EITHER DO THAT OR STAY AT PAC 10, and either DIE as PAC 7/5/PAC/MWC merger , or DIE as PAC 10 G5,G6 NON P5 conference.


At least if PAC tries by adding SDSU, SMU, there is a chance.


But if PAC doesn't try, does not add SDSU, SMU, expand, there is even less or no chance.

It's that brutal, DIRE for the PAC.

And the PAC is not going to Convince Okie St to leave Big 12 to join PAC, UNLESS PAC FIRST adds SDSU, SMU, ISU, TTU, KSU, etc, and STABILIZES.
 
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Mentioning this is like talking to brick walls.

Perceived stability is almost everything.

PAC 12(soon to be 10), got raided, lost USC, UCLA. THAT MAKES PAC 12/10 VULNERABLE TO BEING RAIDED AGAIN AND LOSING OREGON, UW, STANFORD, and becoming the PAC 7, instead of PAC 12/10, because of the PERCEIVED VULNERABILITY, lack of stability of PAC, now that lost USC, UCLA.

By adding SDSU, SMU:

1. That gets PERCEIVED by the media, college football world as stabilizing expanding, etc, and because of that the PAC will probably be less likely to be raided of Oregon, UW, Stanford etc.

2. Even if the PAC does get raided, lose those teams, etc, PAC 12 would be at a survivable life support, PAC 10, instead of a DEAD PAC 7, that others start feeding frenzy off of.

3. Adding SDSU and SMU will, can create the opportunity, chance to semi successfully negotiate a BETTER MEDIA deal, so that even tho adding more members it's not lessening the pie share per each of the existing PAC colleges in the PAC now.

4. And SDSU and SMU could take lesser shares, that would help prevent the current PAC colleges from having the pie amount to them after improved media deal, be less then what getting now. Less Shares to SDSU, SMU, would help prevent that.

5. Once all the above is done, there would be a better chance of joint ACC/PAC media deal alliance that would increase the pie that PAC gets.

6. After that done. PAC could maybe get ISU OR AN OR TTU from Big 12.

7. DFW is one of the HOTTEST recruiting areas in nation.

8. SMU used to be in the same conference with Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc, and SMU used to be BIG TIME FOOTBALL.

IT CAN BE AGAIN SOMEDAY if it joins the PAC or Big 12.


But even if the above were to be not true, and adding SDSU, SMU is pointless and shouldn't add them, and stay at PAC 10:

Then the PAC 10 either DIES and gets eaten up by Big 12 and Big 10, and becomes PAC 7, then PAC 5, and dies, etc, or becomes the PAC 7/5 merges with MWC and either dies, or becomes IRRELEVANT, OR it becomes a G5,6, group of 5, group of 6, level, NON P5, PAC 10.

The ONLY WAY THE PAC SURVIVES, STAYS RELEVANT AS A P5 CONFERENCE IS BY EXPANDING TO 12, 14, 16, by adding SDSU, SMU, negotiating a BETTER MEDIA DEAL, doing a joint ACC/PAC deal, getting either an or ISU, TTU from Big 12, and STABILIZING or at least having everybody thinking PAC is STABILIZING even if it weren't stabilizing.


ITS EITHER DO THAT OR STAY AT PAC 10, and either DIE as PAC 7/5/PAC/MWC merger , or DIE as PAC 10 G5,G6 NON P5 conference.


At least if PAC tries by adding SDSU, SMU, there is a chance.


But if PAC doesn't try, does not add SDSU, SMU, expand, there is even less or no chance.

It's that brutal, DIRE for the PAC.

And the PAC is not going to Convince Okie St to leave Big 12 to join PAC, UNLESS PAC FIRST adds SDSU, SMU, ISU, TTU, KSU, etc, and STABILIZES.

And if PAC adds SDSU, and SMU, and Oregon, UW, etc, threaten to leave, the BIG 10 SAID THEY ARE NOT INTERESTED IN UW, OREGON, FOR NOW.

And even if UW did leave, the new WA law that will be passed says that UW and WSU go together.


And by the time Oregon, etc, would be ready to leave, the PAC would be well enough off eventually, but before losing Oregon, etc, from adding SDSU, SMU, that Oregon either wouldn't leave or wouldn't threaten to leave at that point.
 
From everything I’ve read about new super conferences and speculation, WSU & the Beavs get left out due to small markets, pop. Centers. Even if the PAC somehow managed to merge with either the ACC or the Big 12, we still don’t make the cut, which is BS, as WSU & the Beavs both punch way above their weight given there size & circumstances. I think the PAC needs SDSU and a school in Texas. The recruiting map there is fertile for football players. Schools like WSU can scoop up on plenty of really good 3 star athletes out of TX & you’ll have some fine football players to stock your team. We don’t require 4/5 star kids to be successful. Given that it appears WSU and the Beavs get left out. It looks like the most likely path forward would to get absorbed into a quasi PAC/Mt. West conference. This is most likely the point at which quite a few people re-evaluate their interest / support of football.
 
Expansion? That means a smaller piece of the TV revenue pie for each team. The only expansion that make sense is one that makes the TV revenue pie bigger. What schools do that? None that I can think of. Having to share that revenue pie further killed Big-10 interest in UW and Oregon, and led them to eye the Cal and Stanford, the only schools that are worth far more than the revenue hit.

The Commissioner needs to talk expansion with schools, only to see if the networks would pay more if XY and Z are added. The Commissioner must focus on a more "eat what you kill" revenue sharing within the conference, that is what the all the talk about leaving is about, the era "equal" revenue sharing is dead.

Honestly, just because the Big 12 is panicking by diluting with BYU, Cincy, Houston and UCF doesn't mean the Pac-10 should. Honestly, do you really think the Pac-10 schools want to move to the Big-12, that has no flagship schools left? It is a negotiation bluff, no more.

The Big 12 recruited new schools that they feel have the potential to be impactful on the national stage as much as TV ratings. Cincinnati has gone 53-10 in the past five seasons. Houston has finished with 13 wins twice in the past 13 years and had another 12 win season recently. BYU is a national brand. UCF is a powerhouse waiting to happen and they've finished with 9+ wins in seven out of the last ten seasons. If you don't think that the Four Corners schools aren't interested in a discussion with the Big 12...you haven't been paying attention. The Big 12 is setting itself up as the clear #3 league in college football.

Meanwhile, because we've sat on our collective asses for a decade, our conference is falling apart and we've lost our two "prestige" programs and the other two most prominent programs have made it clear that they'll leave as soon as they can.

I don't know how long Sanders will be at CU and how successful he will be, but I guarantee that he is already lobbying the school's leadership to bail on the Pac-12. The Big 12 isn't the B1G or SEC....but they are clearly playing a higher level of chess than the Pac-12 is.
 
You cannot possibly be serious
I'm serious about Cal and Stanford being dead weight... and that they will be getting worse.

They don't care about sports and will eventually be out of the equation anyway.

Am I serious about us looking to add Middle Tennesse State to our new Super Conference? No.

But I am serious about other areas growing and I'd rather make a Super Conference with teams and destinations we'd want vs. us going to the Big Sky / Mountain West
 
The Cougs aren't being left out of any major conference based on our TV ratings and the fact we are in the Seattle market. That's reality.

The other reality is that the mid-west and the south simply care more about sports. Their ratings show. The attraction of the Dallas market, as stated, is this will give us 9am PT games. I'd imagine we'd want at least 2 schools in the mid-west for a weekly Pac-12 9am games.
 
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The west coast doesn't care about football that much, so why are we trying to lure other time zone schools in? It's not going to change the dynamic of the conference as it sits today. Even the traitors from LA don't fill their stadiums. Shit, we can't fill our now 33,000 stadium most games.

Bill Moos and Mike Leach were changing that narrative for a few years
 
And if PAC adds SDSU, and SMU, and Oregon, UW, etc, threaten to leave, the BIG 10 SAID THEY ARE NOT INTERESTED IN UW, OREGON, FOR NOW.

And even if UW did leave, the new WA law that will be passed says that UW and WSU go together.

Mik, from what your sources say, do you expect the new WA law that will be passed and permanently unite WSU and UW will be copied for OSU and UO in OR?

Does that mean all four schools would move to either the Big Ten or Big XII depending on what the Washington and Oregon legislatures determined what was best?
 
Mik, from what your sources say, do you expect the new WA law that will be passed and permanently unite WSU and UW will be copied for OSU and UO in OR?

Does that mean all four schools would move to either the Big Ten or Big XII depending on what the Washington and Oregon legislatures determined what was best?
I don't expect the legislature to pass any law in this regard. They have more important things to address and UW isn't signing on.
 
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Colorado bailed out of the Big XII too. Not sure that Missouri was ever in the Big XII. I think Missouri went from the Big 8 to the SEC, but I'm not going to bother to look it up.
Missouri was in the Big-12
 
The Big 12 recruited new schools that they feel have the potential to be impactful on the national stage as much as TV ratings. Cincinnati has gone 53-10 in the past five seasons. Houston has finished with 13 wins twice in the past 13 years and had another 12 win season recently. BYU is a national brand. UCF is a powerhouse waiting to happen and they've finished with 9+ wins in seven out of the last ten seasons. If you don't think that the Four Corners schools aren't interested in a discussion with the Big 12...you haven't been paying attention. The Big 12 is setting itself up as the clear #3 league in college football.

Meanwhile, because we've sat on our collective asses for a decade, our conference is falling apart and we've lost our two "prestige" programs and the other two most prominent programs have made it clear that they'll leave as soon as they can.

I don't know how long Sanders will be at CU and how successful he will be, but I guarantee that he is already lobbying the school's leadership to bail on the Pac-12. The Big 12 isn't the B1G or SEC....but they are clearly playing a higher level of chess than the Pac-12 is.
Try to stop looking at it from a fan prospective, and look at it from the school/business prospective. Ultimately it comes down to dollars and cents business wise, and the Big 12 is splitting the same TV revenue pie 14 as opposed to 12 ways with potentially more splits to come, in a conference that every flagship program they have ever had, except Kansas (in basketball only), has bailed. Look at their line up and they don't have national draw team and the only states they don't play second or third fiddle in are Utah, Kansas and WVa. They don't even have a time slot dominance.

Why did USC and UCLA leave? Because they thought they would have more impact on the national stage elsewhere? Why did Oklahoma and Texas leave the Big 12? TX A&M, Missouri, Nebraska and Arkansas before that? Colorado before that? UCF BYU et al are moving to the Big-12 only because they think there is more money to be had. You want Oregon, UW, Utah, Colorado, the Zonas to leave, tell them they have to split their Pac-10 TV revenue pie with the likes of SDSU # 86 TV draw, Fresno # 79, SMU #77, just for the sake of expansion. There is no financial upside to it, none ... zero, nada.
 
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