The Las Vegas line favors ASU(4-1) over WSU(3-2) by 3 pts. If the cougs cannot win this one their bowl season will be in jeopardy.
Sun Devils favored.
- Thread starter ElComanche
- Start date
We still have eminently winnable games against Colorado and Oregon State. Cal's offense is such that everyone who plays them will have a shot at winning. We've owned Stanford and Oregon for a few years now (although Utah showed that doesn't mean much). We are overdue to win the Apple Cup and the mutts look vulnerable. Our bowl hopes do not rest on the ASU game at all.
Now.....if we beat ASU.......it puts us in the position to start talking about a quality bowl game (we ain't winning the North so let's just let that delusion die). At this point, I'm just going to be happy when we qualify for whatever bowl game we qualify for.
I wouldn't necessarily count us out of the North title just yet. How we play this game will tell us everything about the resiliency of this team and the loss of Claeys. Oregon was getting shut out by Cal up until midway thru the third quarter and if they lose one before they play us (they got CU at home and play @ UW before us) and we manage to right the ship, we would control our own destiny with a win over the Ducks. I know that is a lot of "ifs" but they are not out of the realm of possibility type "ifs".
- Winless in conference going into Week 7
- UCLA's only win
- Giving up 58 PPG in conference so far
- 2-8 in Tempe since 1997
- ASU ranked #18
- Assistant coaching carousel
- No signature wins
We had no business beating USC at the Colosseum 10-7 in Leach's second year but we did. Or even beating the Huskies in his first as a 2-9 team when they were ranked. Yes, as it stand now, there are a lot of question marks. I have to believe that a fire has been lit under someone's ass that will help ignite this squad as a whole. We all know they are fully capable of playing much better.
You can’t coach awareness, and that’s a significant part of our problem on defense. There are things that can be fixed, and there’s no reason we should give up 50 points in 19 minutes again. But I will not be surprised to see us give up 30-35 to literally everyone on the schedule.
I also don’t count either Colorado or OSU as wins. Both can throw. OSU can also run. I don’t think either can stop us, but if our D doesn’t turn a corner (or a couple corners) every offense in the conference may be able to keep up...and every team with a pass rush will have an advantage.
I agree shocked to see this line where it is. When was the last time an unranked Coug team played on the road against a top 20 team and was only a 2 pt dog? What gives? I would have figured a 7-9 pt line.
When the troll narrative doesn't materialize... Make stuff up I guess...
And whether the spread is 1, 2, 3, or 5, it shows that betters aren't completely willing to hand the game to ASU.
I’m not confident about Saturday’s game as a WSU fan, but I wouldn’t be overconfident if I were a Sun Devil fan either.
I was thinking back to the last two games and I think we are closer to where we want to be than people think. Our biggest issue on defense right now is coverage on third downs that are obvious passing downs.
Even with everything else that went on that night.........if we could have stopped them on two out of three of the long 3rd downs and made that score in the early 4th quarter, the score of that game might have been WSU 20, Utah 17 instead of trailing 31-13. Woulda, coulda, shoulda doesn't change anything......but if the coaches can figure out the things that need to change for us to be able to stop teams on long 3rd downs.....we'll be feeling better about things pretty quickly.
We had Utah sitting at 3rd and 12 on their own 23 yard line late in the 2nd quarter with the score at Utah 14, WSU 13. We gave up a 41 yard gain and they go on to take a 21-13 lead.
Utah was looking at a 3rd and 11 on their own 36 yard line in their opening drive of the second half and we gave up the first down. They went onto score a field goal to take a 24-13 lead.
On their next drive, we again have Utah looking at a 3rd and 11 on their own 36 yard line. We give up a 15 yard pass and they go on to score a TD to take a 31-13 lead.
On our next drive, we grind out the clock but fail to score and leave the ball on their two yard line.
Utah was looking at a 3rd and 11 on their own 36 yard line in their opening drive of the second half and we gave up the first down. They went onto score a field goal to take a 24-13 lead.
On their next drive, we again have Utah looking at a 3rd and 11 on their own 36 yard line. We give up a 15 yard pass and they go on to score a TD to take a 31-13 lead.
On our next drive, we grind out the clock but fail to score and leave the ball on their two yard line.
Even with everything else that went on that night.........if we could have stopped them on two out of three of the long 3rd downs and made that score in the early 4th quarter, the score of that game might have been WSU 20, Utah 17 instead of trailing 31-13. Woulda, coulda, shoulda doesn't change anything......but if the coaches can figure out the things that need to change for us to be able to stop teams on long 3rd downs.....we'll be feeling better about things pretty quickly.
So would I. Since the books and bettors tend to give the home team three points, a spread of less than that translates into them regarding the Cougs as the better team. A struggling team which is at least temporarily disorganized defensively is better than a ranked one? Doesn't make sense. Let's hope that they know something that we don't.
With all due respect:
- 1Q
- 2nd & 5: Huntley pass to Simpkins for 54 yards
- 1st & 10: Shelly rush for 17 yards
- 2nd & 4: Huntley pass to Thompson for 19 yards
- 2nd & 11: Huntley rush for 20 yards
- 1st & 10: Huntley pass to Thompson for 23 yards
- 2Q
- 1st & 10: Huntley pass to Nacua for 52 yards (TD)
- 2nd & 4: Wilmore rush for 10 yards
- 1st & 10: Huntley rush for 15 yards (TD)
- 3Q
- 1st & 10: Henry-Cole rush for 12 yards
- 1st & 10: Huntley pass to Nacua for 17 yards
- 1st & 10: Henry-Cole rush for 13 yards
- 1st & 10: Huntley pass to Thedford for 11 yards
- 1st & 10: Huntley pass to Dixon for 13 yards
- 1st & 10: Huntley pass to Dixon for 11 yards
- 4Q
- 1st & 10: Henry-Cole rush for 13 yards
Therefore, if we can somehow convince the referees to ONLY let them have the ball on 2nd down, we are definitely going to be in this thing.
The Utah game was closer but because we consistently didn't win high leverage plays, it ended in a route.
Stop Utah on 4th and 1 in the second Q and we go into the half down one or with a lead if we are able to score. Punch in a TD on 1st and goal in the 4th Q and it's a battle that comes down to the wire despite all the other problems we had all night.
We didn't have the resiliency to suck it up and win just a few more plays in order to pull this one out. It was like we expected Utah to give it to us.
Stop Utah on 4th and 1 in the second Q and we go into the half down one or with a lead if we are able to score. Punch in a TD on 1st and goal in the 4th Q and it's a battle that comes down to the wire despite all the other problems we had all night.
We didn't have the resiliency to suck it up and win just a few more plays in order to pull this one out. It was like we expected Utah to give it to us.
We're all justifiably scrutinizing our team after the last 2 games. Now, let's look at ASU for a minute. They come into the game at 4-1, with a couple of nice wins vs. Michigan St and Cal.
- In the MSU game, they gained a total of 216 yards and scored a late TD to win 10-7. A great win vs. a good defensive team, but certainly one that should be taken with a grain of salt.
- In the Cal game, the Bears lost their starting QB in the 2nd quarter and couldn't do anything on offense after that. Their backup QB (Modster) finished the game 5/14 for 23 yards, including an INT in the endzone. Regardless, it was a good win for a young ASU team, and they did quite well against a tough Bear defense. Still, there's an intangible effect of losing the starting QB that needs to be factored in here. The Bear defense, and everyone in the stadium, knew that Cal was incapable of moving the ball when Garbers went out. ASU won 24-17 on a TD with 4 minutes left.
- Sandwiched between those games, ASU lost at home to Colorado 34-31 in a game where the Buffs gained 477 yards despite an injury to their best WR, Shenault. Colorado passed for 337 yards.
So what do we draw from that? Here's my take. ASU has faced one decent passing team so far in Colorado, and they got lit up at home. Other than that, they've faced Kent State, Sacramento St, Michigan St, and Cal; none of whom are capable of throwing the ball whatsoever.
I'm not at all suggesting that WSU will win the game, but you can certainly see why betters are pumping the brakes on this one. Our defense has stunk it up in the past 6 quarters, but let's not close the book on our offense based on that rainy performance in Salt Lake City. The forecast in Tempe is 89 degrees, which I would think will excite the hell out of our skill players. After a bye week, it's certainly not out of the question to predict that we'll put up 500+ yards of offense on an ASU team that hasn't faced anything close to what we'll throw at them. The question is, can we stop them?
tough to bet against WSU because the offense, if clicking-is able to lay 50 on just about anybody.
That said, wins over MSU and Cal look very good for ASU
That said, wins over MSU and Cal look very good for ASU
You're right that it's hard to tell, but when we get out the jeweler's loupe and poke holes in their MSU road win... and then we consider dropping a home game to UCLA - where all units (O/D/ST) had a meltdown - it gives me far less confidence.
I still think we're dangerous and hope this is the game where we reassert our threat.
Good post. With the changes in personnel on d-side, with a vocal presence and leadership down below on the sideline, I think ASU better be ready, because everything intangible somewhat points to the COUGS, including the current trend on the Vegas line.
Yes but in my post are 15 additional examples of giving up explosive or borderline-explosive plays on 1st and 2nd down. Additionally, Utah's perennially constipated offense averaged 5 YPA rushing and 11 YPA throwing.
I suspect people point to 3rd and 4th down as the turning point plays because you can literally stop your opponent on these downs. Much less attention, by contrast, goes into the "everyday" downs where it's 2nd or 3rd and very manageable.
We gave up a lot of chunk plays but we still had several opportunities to get them off the field on long third downs and failed. FWIW, a lot of their bigger plays that you listed came after we failed on those 3rd down stops. I don't know if it was fatigue or between the ears, but they certainly didn't do a good job of consistently stopping the Utes. Of course, a killer was that first drive in the third quarter. We held them to a field goal, but that stop seemed to empty the tank and our defense just wilted as the game went on.
Football is an extremely fickle sport and it's a quick trip to the bottom of the standings but it can also be just as fast to the top if you take advantage of the opportunities that you have. We had to come from behind in the second half to beat Wyoming, Utah and Stanford last year. The Cal game almost ended up in overtime. One or two bad breaks per game in those games and we could have been 6-6 last year. Unfortunately, I don't see us whipping out seven straight wins this year......because we do have some personnel issues, but I think that there's a pretty good chance we take down the Sun Devils and end up at 7-4 heading into the Apple Cup. I'm going to go ahead and pencil in the mutts at 6-5.
Even with those plays, the poor tackling, blown coverages, etc. we are in the game late if we manage to step up in the situations I mentioned. We're not going to be a good defense this year but we can be an opportunistic one.
The Cougs won last time in Tempe, 2016, but generally speaking we don't play well in the desert. Been to several games down there in person, haven't seen a win yet while in the stands, not going to this one, so that's a plus. Not sure what to make of this Coug team, how they play in this games will give us some insight into the rest of the season. Is it over, or are we fighting for a decent bowl birth?
For some reason that I can't quite put my finger on I'm mildly optimistic. I think the Cougs have played their two worst games. The UCLA game was so ugly that I don't even want to discuss it. I always thought Utah in Salt Lake was going to be difficult. I think we recover and go on to have a good season. Exactly how good remains to be seen.
Go Cougs
Go Cougs
Most books have this game as a pick em now.
Surprising considering ASU is ranked, Cougs on the road and the last 6 quarters of WSU football. That being said, I have a good feeling the Cougs are going to play their best football of the year by a long shot.
So, he is? But if he was...wouldn't want ASU to know about it. I'm rooting for the offense to look more like they did against Houston and the defense to look more cohesive with more than 5.5 tfl. They should look solid with the California players more at home in 85-90 degree heat.
