Tentative return date set

[CougPatrol]

Just read that a preliminary return to campus date for student athletes has been set for late June/early July.

It's still way too early for any definitive projections, but if that holds true and teams are able to start practicing in July, I expect the full season to play out as expected. Crossing fingers.

 

[fingerdisco]

Just read that a preliminary return to campus date for student athletes has been set for late June/early July.

It's still way too early for any definitive projections, but if that holds true and teams are able to start practicing in July, I expect the full season to play out as expected. Crossing fingers.

Sucks for the players if they have to conduct most of their practices in the heat of July and August.

 

[CougPatrol]

Sucks for the players if they have to conduct most of their practices in the heat of July and August.

I guess, but you know what? Boo hoo. If you took a vote, 100% of them would vote Hell Yes!

Also, if you think it’s hot for WSU players, how about programs in the SEC, ACC, Big10, and Big12 where humidity is off the charts? How about LA, Arizona, and even Salt Lake City?

 

[Coug90]

I guess, but you know what? Boo hoo. If you took a vote, 100% of them would vote Hell Yes!

Also, if you think it’s hot for WSU players, how about programs in the SEC, ACC, Big10, and Big12 where humidity is off the charts? How about LA, Arizona, and even Salt Lake City?

It wouldn’t be the end of the world to have a season without spring ball. Things might be a little sloppy to start the season but I would venture to guess that at some point not too long ago there was no spring ball...80s, 70s? Football didn’t really become a year round sport for the NFL until late 80s/early 90s.

I would also assume 1. Kids have playbooks and can at least get their mental faculties together, 2. Strength coaches have provided training plans, nutrition plans, etc. and 3. some players are getting together to run routes, etc. anyways.

For those reasons I’m not sure it makes sense for the NCAA to add another 3 weeks of organized practices during the summer.

 

[CougPatrol]

They could compromise by extending Fall camp several weeks, but limiting full pad contact drills. That would allow for new systems and drills to be implemented without excess wear and tear on the athletes.

 

[fingerdisco]

I guess, but you know what? Boo hoo. If you took a vote, 100% of them would vote Hell Yes!

Also, if you think it’s hot for WSU players, how about programs in the SEC, ACC, Big10, and Big12 where humidity is off the charts? How about LA, Arizona, and even Salt Lake City?

Was just a passing comment on shoehorning in practices in the meat of summer, wasn’t intended to be a debate starter on who has the most miserable summer practice conditions.

 

[CougPatrol]

Was just a passing comment on shoehorning in practices in the meat of summer, wasn’t intended to be a debate starter on who has the most miserable summer practice conditions.

Mine was a general response, and not directed at you, nor was it intended to start trouble. Whenever the restart occurs, July, October, January, there won’t be linear fairness to programs across the board. Some will be impacted more than others.

 

[dgibbons]

They could compromise by extending Fall camp several weeks, but limiting full pad contact drills. That would allow for new systems and drills to be implemented without excess wear and tear on the athletes.

I was thinking pretty much the same- a two week or so session with pads in June, then no pads until fall camp.

I assume they're on some kind of workout program right now. Even if it's HIIT type stuff at home.

 

[fingerdisco]

Mine was a general response, and not directed at you, nor was it intended to start trouble. Whenever the restart occurs, July, October, January, there won’t be linear fairness to programs across the board. Some will be impacted more than others.

For sure, if we expected fairness than the Alabama's of the world would have to stop outspending everyone else, 3, 4 to 1 (or more).

 

[CougPatrol]

EDIT: as is going to be the case over the next several weeks, many state politicians are saying no, they don’t see a return of group sports gatherings until at least Thanksgiving.

 

[earldacoug]

EDIT: as is going to be the case over the next several weeks, many state politicians are saying no, they don’t see a return of group sports gatherings until at least Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving ? I think that’s nuts !! First we are told we need to quarantine to flatten the curve, so the medical system doesn’t collapse and supply of masks, ventilators etc can catch up. That is happening and or has happened. Now it seems the goal posts are being moved and some want it closed longer ? This doesn’t make sense to me, for a virus that 97% of people who catch it are surviving. Also staying shut down till Thanksgiving will have serious economic and societal repercussions imo. Maybe risking economic collapse. I think things need to open back up probably by mid May. Those with a high risk to the virus can still self quarantine if necessary.

 

[dgibbons]

Thanksgiving ? I think that’s nuts !! First we are told we need to quarantine to flatten the curve, so the medical system doesn’t collapse and supply of masks, ventilators etc can catch up. That is happening and or has happened. Now it seems the goal posts are being moved and some want it closed longer ? This doesn’t make sense to me, for a virus that 97% of people who catch it are surviving. Also staying shut down till Thanksgiving will have serious economic and societal repercussions imo. Maybe risking economic collapse. I think things need to open back up probably by mid May. Those with a high risk to the virus can still self quarantine if necessary.

Flattening the curve is also to buy time for a vaccine, or I guess effective treatment.

 

[AncientCoug]

Thanksgiving ? I think that’s nuts !! First we are told we need to quarantine to flatten the curve, so the medical system doesn’t collapse and supply of masks, ventilators etc can catch up. That is happening and or has happened. Now it seems the goal posts are being moved and some want it closed longer ? This doesn’t make sense to me, for a virus that 97% of people who catch it are surviving. Also staying shut down till Thanksgiving will have serious economic and societal repercussions imo. Maybe risking economic collapse. I think things need to open back up probably by mid May. Those with a high risk to the virus can still self quarantine if necessary.

I don’t think it’s going to be up to the government to decide when NCAA sports start back up. After all, most pro and college sports shut down well before any state orders or federal recommendations would have forced them to do so. So even after stay at home orders are lifted by the various states, the NCAA and various conferences will have to agree on a path forward.

The way I see it, the question of when the college football season restarts hinges on what the pro leagues do. If MLB or the NFL or NBA restart their seasons in the next few weeks and don’t have any major problems, the NCAA will follow. But I don’t think the NCAA will proceed with a season without the cover is provided by the pro leagues having done so first. It’s not clear the NCAA cares that much about their student athletes but they do care about money which means they care about potential lawsuits.

 

[Cougzz]

The NCAA and conferences can declare any opener they want, but governors and the feds are going to make the only calls that count. If the Governors of California and Washington say no, then that is 50% of the PAC 12. Root for a vaccine or a mega boost to testing. As to the “...let’s play even if fans are banned” crowd, look to Chip Kelly’s comment about how that would be profoundly unfair to the players.

 

[Coug90]

Flattening the curve is also to buy time for a vaccine, or I guess effective treatment.

A vaccine was never gonna be less than 12-18 months out. Flattening the curve has always been about not overwhelming the HC system. Overwhelmed HC system = much higher mortality rates, choosing who lives or dies.

 

[Observer11]

A vaccine was never gonna be less than 12-18 months out. Flattening the curve has always been about not overwhelming the HC system. Overwhelmed HC system = much higher mortality rates, choosing who lives or dies.

There are currently reports out that herd immunity has already kicked in - almost 30% of those testing for COVID also have the anti-bodies that combat COVID. Which means the virus already swept through the country earlier than the first reported case on January 15.

The health care system in Washington State was never overwhelmed. and it won't be. Providence already had extensive contingency plans to utilize their clinics and non-hospital facilities.

 

[95coug]

Cancelling football season won’t be about flattening the curve, it’ll be about avoiding another one.
I don’t think the current situation will be extended entirely. Governors will start to loosen Restrictions after May 1. I’m thinking something like gatherings up to 50, businesses reopen but are limited to 1/2 capacity. Something like that, just to get money flowing again. They’ll let that work for a month and see what the curve does in response.
The availability of testing will also influence this - especially the rapid tests. If those get rolled out and are reasonably available, things will be relaxed more. Those tests will increase the potential that they’ll allow football to proceed...possibly with weekly testing for all players.
Not sure I see a normal season coming this fall, I’m kind of expecting it to be empty stadiums.

 

[Coug90]

There are currently reports out that herd immunity has already kicked in - almost 30% of those testing for COVID also have the anti-bodies that combat COVID. Which means the virus already swept through the country earlier than the first reported case on January 15.

The health care system in Washington State was never overwhelmed. and it won't be. Providence already had extensive contingency plans to utilize their clinics and non-hospital facilities.

JI also was also proactive and not tripping over his dick like our national leadership. Glad I’m not living in FL or LA right now. Let’s cram 2K people into churches at the peak of this thing! Flavor-Aid central.

 

[SDCoug]

The NCAA and conferences can declare any opener they want, but governors and the feds are going to make the only calls that count. If the Governors of California and Washington say no, then that is 50% of the PAC 12. Root for a vaccine or a mega boost to testing. As to the “...let’s play even if fans are banned” crowd, look to Chip Kelly’s comment about how that would be profoundly unfair to the players.

My son will be a freshman at WSU this fall. My understanding is that if the semester begins with remote classes, as they are now, they will not be moving in until the start of the spring semester.

I’m not sure what that would mean for football. I assume the dorms won’t be open. Even if they try to have fall sports, where are the freshman going to stay? Maybe they open some dorms and have them still attend classes on-line? My feeling is that if all students aren’t back on campus in August then there won’t be any fall sports. That’s just what my gut tells me. I certainly could be wrong.

Personally, I don’t think my son will be on campus this fall. It bums me out that he may be starting his time at WSU from his home in Montana.

 

[95coug]

My son will be a freshman at WSU this fall. My understanding is that if the semester begins with remote classes, as they are now, they will not be moving in until the start of the spring semester.

I’m not sure what that would mean for football. I assume the dorms won’t be open. Even if they try to have fall sports, where are the freshman going to stay? Maybe they open some dorms and have them still attend classes on-line? My feeling is that if all students aren’t back on campus in August then there won’t be any fall sports. That’s just what my gut tells me. I certainly could be wrong.

Personally, I don’t think my son will be on campus this fall. It bums me out that he may be starting his time at WSU from his home in Montana.

Fall is being looked at closely (classes, not football), but no decisions have been made yet. It won't be entirely in WSU's control.

There's not really an effective way to maintain any kind of social distance in dorms or lecture halls, so unless there's essentially no restrictions by August it's hard to see how Pullman can operate normally. And, Even if there are no restrictions, what's the likelihood of a second wave?

 

[95coug]

JI also was also proactive and not tripping over his dick like our national leadership. Glad I’m not living in FL or LA right now. Let’s cram 2K people into churches at the peak of this thing! Flavor-Aid central.

He didn't trip. He meant to do that. It was perfect. Knew it was there the whole time.

And Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.

 

[etowncoug]

Texas is doing a limited opening starting Monday. The pressure to lift the restrictions is going to start getting intense, not so much from DC, but from people couped up for weeks on end. Folks want a way for life to return to normal while minimizing the risk of Covid-19.

 

[Observer11]

JI also was also proactive and not tripping over his dick like our national leadership. Glad I’m not living in FL or LA right now. Let’s cram 2K people into churches at the peak of this thing! Flavor-Aid central.

We'll agree to disagree regarding Jay Inslee.

 

[dgibbons]

A vaccine was never gonna be less than 12-18 months out. Flattening the curve has always been about not overwhelming the HC system. Overwhelmed HC system = much higher mortality rates, choosing who lives or dies.

Virus mutates, second wave worse than the first. Like the Spanish flu. The only way to eradicate is with a vaccine. Otherwise it’s social distancing forever. A vaccine has always been the end game to all these curves and nonsense.

 

[kougkurt]

Virus mutates, second wave worse than the first. Like the Spanish flu. The only way to eradicate is with a vaccine. Otherwise it’s social distancing forever. A vaccine has always been the end game to all these curves and nonsense.

Yup

 

[earldacoug]

Virus mutates, second wave worse than the first. Like the Spanish flu. The only way to eradicate is with a vaccine. Otherwise it’s social distancing forever. A vaccine has always been the end game to all these curves and nonsense.

Social distancing forever or even 6 mos. means economic collapse. For a virus that 97% are surviving ? Insane imo. For people with health risks, diabetics, obese, etc. yes they may need to stay quarantined for long term. Others will need to go back to work, soon. My opinion.

 

[dgibbons]

Social distancing forever or even 6 mos. means economic collapse. For a virus that 97% are surviving ? Insane imo. For people with health risks, diabetics, obese, etc. yes they may need to stay quarantined for long term. Others will need to go back to work, soon. My opinion.

The epidemiologists, virologists, etc. calling to flatten the curve are not economists.

Presumably, the next phase will be some kind of test and trace to isolate the sick, while keeping the at risk isolated as well.

 

[95coug]

The epidemiologists, virologists, etc. calling to flatten the curve are not economists.

Presumably, the next phase will be some kind of test and trace to isolate the sick, while keeping the at risk isolated as well.

That’s key. Without widely available testing, blanket isolation is about the only tool in the box. That or do nothing and just roll the dice 330 million times.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Social distancing forever or even 6 mos. means economic collapse. For a virus that 97% are surviving ? Insane imo. For people with health risks, diabetics, obese, etc. yes they may need to stay quarantined for long term. Others will need to go back to work, soon. My opinion.

The 97% is the issue here. We can't willingly allow a disease that kills 2%-3% of those that contract it to run unchecked, but we also can't take measures that destroy the lives of 20-30% (or more) of our population. The thing that's kind of gross about this virus is that exposes how willing our government is to lie to its citizens. Two months ago, we were told that we shouldn't be purchasing or wearing masks because they were ineffective at stopping the transmission of the disease. If that was actually the case, why is the medical community so up in arms in making sure that they have facemasks? The truth is that they didn't want the general public to buy all the masks so they played the odds and lied to us. My wife is a nurse and there is no way in hell that she would work without a mask.

What I think that we need to do is to lift work restrictions on any job or business that can operate with both the workers and customers wearing masks on May 1st and perhaps sooner than that. In person dining or other activities where masks can't be worn wouldn't be allowed until June 1st (maybe sooner or later depending on how things are going). Once they establish a way to effectively test for the presence of anti-bodies and screening for the virus, that obviously changes a lot of things.

I believe that we needed to flatten the initial curve and the social distancing and isolation hasn't been as bad as I thought it would be, but at some point, we have to accept that no matter how hard we try, people die every day from something. We have to be mindful to take reasonable precautions, but that does not include shutting our country down for six months. If that were to happen, more people would die from the solution than would have died from the virus. Even if we didn't hundreds of thousands of people dying from stress and economic hardship, we would be bankrupting our country's future. That's just stupid for us to do.

I don't claim to know the exact balance (I wouldn't have imagined that we would have shut the country down as much as we've done) but we aren't there right now.

 

[NMBRCRNCHR]

Please, please stop the 2 - 3% death rate non-sense, it is no where near that high.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Please, please stop the 2 - 3% death rate non-sense, it is no where near that high.

In the United States, there have been 22,133 deaths amongst the 561,159 confirmed cases of coronavirus for a current mortality rate of 3.94% among those that have been identified with the virus. The WHO is saying that it's 3.4% globally. We know that there are a lot of folks with mild or no symptoms and so the number is definitely less than 3.94% (or 3.4%). That said, my wife, sister-in-law and sister all work in the medical business and they all have heard stories about people who died from an upper respiratory illness but were not tested for coronavirus. So, even though we likely have hundreds of thousands of people who haven't been tested for coronavirus that aren't dying....there are also people dying from this illness that haven't been counted. China in particular has been accused of glossing over their numbers.

Still, even if you want to live in a world where the disease only kills 1% of those infected, that would have led to millions of dead Americans if the disease were to be allowed to run unchecked. As I said above, we have to be realistic and find a way to balance the risks of virus deaths against the harm it does to the living. That doesn't mean that we need to lie to ourselves and pretend that coronavirus is "just the flu" and we should have ignored it. If you believe that the mortality rate is less than 1%, I'm going to have to assume that you have no regard for facts or logic and have plenty of sand on your property to bury your head in.

 

[AncientCoug]

Please, please stop the 2 - 3% death rate non-sense, it is no where near that high.

Regardless of the actual death rate, I think we have entered into a crisis of confidence stage economically. I don’t think anyone outside the 4 or 5 million ardent Fox News viewers believe a word our president says anymore. Even some of them are likely skeptical.

So I think he could go ahead and lift social distancing rules (where they exist) or recommendations (where they don’t) and probably not see a big change in economic behavior. Shuttered businesses will be hesitant to make the investment required to reopen and most customers will be hesitant to frequent non essential businesses in person. Companies that can have their personnel work from home will continue to do so. The fear of lawsuits will drive company behavior and fear of illness will drive customer behavior.

What we need is a logical, cautious, step by step reopening of the economy that through accurate testing and monitoring gives people confidence that things are under control. I don’t think the odds are very good that an impulsive, reckless nitwit will come up with or even sign off on a cautious, logical plan. We can hope for that but more likely we are going to need a highly effective treatment that is widely available before we see a substantial economic recovery.

 

[95coug]

In the United States, there have been 22,133 deaths amongst the 561,159 confirmed cases of coronavirus for a current mortality rate of 3.94% among those that have been identified with the virus. The WHO is saying that it's 3.4% globally.

And there’s the problem. The 2-3% mortality number is being represented incorrectly. This is the case fatality rate - the number of officially diagnosed cases who end up dead. What this means is that, of the people who are sick enough to go see a doctor, and who actually get a positive test result, 2-3% of that limited population die.

It does not account for the number of people who have mild symptoms, or no symptoms. But if the estimates are correct, and 80% of those infected don’t get seriously sick, then the infection fatality rate - the portion of those infected who die - is under 1%. Somewhere in the ballpark of 0.5-0.6%. Still worse than flu, but not the media scare tactic numbers.

There are several flaws in the numbers and difficulties with direct comparison to the flu. I haven’t been able to find numbers on how many people are actually tested for the flu annually, so coming up with a good case rate for flu isn’t really possible.
We know that testing for COVID still isn’t widely available, so there are certainly more cases than have been diagnosed - probably a lot more - and certainly more deaths too. Those cases may have a higher death rate, since the people dying at home aren’t receiving the same level of care.
And, in both cases, the total number of infections are unknown. They are estimates based on the proportion that epidemiologists assume actually visit a doctor...which makes any downstream math pretty fuzzy.

 

[95coug]

So I think he could go ahead and lift social distancing rules (where they exist) or recommendations (where they don’t) and probably not see a big change in economic behavior.

What we need is a logical, cautious, step by step reopening of the economy that through accurate testing and monitoring gives people confidence that things are under control.

Two thoughts here:
First, in spite of his belief in his own authority, the president does not have the power to re-open the economy...or to close it. That lies with the governors. All he can do is recommend, and based on performance to date I suspect most governors will make their own decisions.
Second, I agree that testing is the real key. If tests were truly available to anyone who wants one - as was stated by the Cheeto a month ago - then things could re-open with much greater confidence and lower risk. Until that’s true, there will continue to be hesitancy on the part of the governors, the business owners, and more importantly, the consumers.

 

[AncientCoug]

Two thoughts here:
First, in spite of his belief in his own authority, the president does not have the power to re-open the economy...or to close it. That lies with the governors. All he can do is recommend, and based on performance to date I suspect most governors will make their own decisions.

You have more faith in Trump playing by the rules than I do. I put the odds at 50/50 that if the states don’t do what he wants, he eventually decides to declare nationwide martial law. That would allow him to override any governor. It also would let him suspend the next election. And he would see the need to do that because the economy would still suck in November.

Of course, any such move would wind up in court but he could always follow in the footsteps of Andrew Jackson (one of his heroes I believe) and arrest any judges that decide against him. The Supreme Court seems to be pretty subservient to him but even if they grew a spine, he could always just ignore their decision, like Abraham Lincoln did regarding Habeas Corpus during the Civil War.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

And there’s the problem. The 2-3% mortality number is being represented incorrectly. This is the case fatality rate - the number of officially diagnosed cases who end up dead. What this means is that, of the people who are sick enough to go see a doctor, and who actually get a positive test result, 2-3% of that limited population die.

It does not account for the number of people who have mild symptoms, or no symptoms. But if the estimates are correct, and 80% of those infected don’t get seriously sick, then the infection fatality rate - the portion of those infected who die - is under 1%. Somewhere in the ballpark of 0.5-0.6%. Still worse than flu, but not the media scare tactic numbers.

There are several flaws in the numbers and difficulties with direct comparison to the flu. I haven’t been able to find numbers on how many people are actually tested for the flu annually, so coming up with a good case rate for flu isn’t really possible.
We know that testing for COVID still isn’t widely available, so there are certainly more cases than have been diagnosed - probably a lot more - and certainly more deaths too. Those cases may have a higher death rate, since the people dying at home aren’t receiving the same level of care.
And, in both cases, the total number of infections are unknown. They are estimates based on the proportion that epidemiologists assume actually visit a doctor...which makes any downstream math pretty fuzzy.

Do you ever remember a flu season where people were dying so quickly in New York that they had to put refrigerated trucks outside hospitals because someone was dying every two minutes? Do you really think that the media would have covered up a story like that? Do you think that Trump's legion of fans and Fox News would have let the "libtards" and "leftist media" hide a story like that?

All bullsh!t aside, the United States hasn't seen a virus like this since the Spanish Flu. The Hong Kong Flu killed 100,000 Americans in a three year period. It's taken a decade for swine flu to kill that many because while it is very transmissive, it's not particularly deadly. Coronavirus has killed 10,000 people in New York in a fuggin' month and that's with us shutting everything down. You can spin this sh!t however you want, but coronavirus is very contagious and very deadly compared to the last two pandemics. You have no idea what the real mortality rate and whenever we talk about mortality rates.....we use official numbers because that's how it's done. It's never perfect and we know that.

I agree with you that the number will trend down over time as the data improves, but as you said, even the flu estimates are estimates. The only thing that we know is that the real world results in body bags over a short period of time suggests that anyone saying that the numbers are lies are just lying to themselves and anyone willing to listen. Right now, the disease really is killing over 3% of the people that are tested and have it....and that is freakin' terrifying.

Bringing this back around though.....we still need to balance the risk of death with the harm caused by the solution. We can still do that without lying to ourselves about the virus.

 

[CougEd]

Thanksgiving ? I think that’s nuts !! First we are told we need to quarantine to flatten the curve, so the medical system doesn’t collapse and supply of masks, ventilators etc can catch up. That is happening and or has happened. Now it seems the goal posts are being moved and some want it closed longer ? This doesn’t make sense to me, for a virus that 97% of people who catch it are surviving. Also staying shut down till Thanksgiving will have serious economic and societal repercussions imo. Maybe risking economic collapse. I think things need to open back up probably by mid May. Those with a high risk to the virus can still self quarantine if necessary.

Earl...not to be the cynic here but I am not sure it was about the people dying. It was about more people that didn't need to die because of the lack of testing and facilities.

Things will open up in May. They may ask people such as I to stay home and work from home, and people at other businesses that don't require a person to be at a physical location to stay home. That will reduce the potential of "greater" spread and will relieve traffic in Seattle.

But without a vaccine are you attending football games in the fall? Are you going to a local bar with fellow Cougs to watch away games? My guess is if there are 100 people, 30 will not be at all restrained in their activities. I think 70 will be fairly conservative in their approach until there is a vaccine. Will you be in the 30% crowd or 70%?

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Let me try to shed some light.

At this point we still have more variables than known figures in our equations, but as time passes we are getting closer. Per the Lancet 2 weeks ago, the best overall current fatality rate estimate is about 2/3 of 1% (of course it varies with age, gender, etc.). Read this for more specific info; it starts with a summary that is pretty concise:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

I think that is probably the most reliable statistic at this time. Previous fatality estimates were considered to be too high for a number of reasons, not the least of which was underestimating how many had been exposed and had minimal symptoms. That means that with 20K + deaths in the US as of last week, somewhere in the 3-4 million range had been infected. Given how we have thoroughly screwed the pooch on testing, that number makes sense. Bear in mind also that fatalities is a trailing statistic; people who die seem to typically do it (peak of the bell curve) in week 2 or early week 3. As long as the hospital admittances are still going up geometrically, that suggests that basing exposure #'s on fatalities is probably going to provide exposure estimates that are about 2 weeks old. So again, based on geometric admittance increases, it is probably safe to assume that at this point 4-5 million have been exposed & sick rather than 3-4 million.

Let's take the high figure....5 million exposed as of now. That is only about 1.5% of the population. Not even a pimple on the a$$ of herd immunity. If the whole social distancing game plan can flatten admittances at some point so we don't overwhelm the medical facilities, then we will gradually work through the population and be able to hold fatalities under 1%. Hopefully well under 1%. If the medical facilities are overwhelmed, then all bets are off and a fatality rate of 3% is not an absurd consequence. If we can actually cause the national admittances to decline...not just flatten...then we have a good chance at holding this at bay until we have a vaccine. Or, lacking that, an effective treatment. It looks now as though we are at least 8-10 weeks from knowing if any of the current Hail Mary attempts at a treatment will work. That puts us to early July, when according to the start of this thread, it is conceivable that we may see football practices start. If we manage to flatten but not cause a decline in admittances...in other words, freeze the rate of new infections where it is right now...then the math would suggest that at that point we probably have somewhere in the ballpark of 20-30 million who have had the disease. Of course, if we continue to increase the exposure rate, then the number who have had the disease will be higher, and if the increase continues to be geometric, it could be a lot higher. Along with an increase in exposure comes an increase in deaths; an 0.66% fatality rate for 34 million exposed (about 10% of our population) works out to about 200K deaths at that point. Estimates of how many people have to have the disease in order to establish herd immunity are in the 80-90% range. That means that if we do nothing more than we are doing now and never develop either a treatment or a vaccine (and I expect we will eventually have both, but I have no firm bets on how long it will take), and 80% of our people end up being ill, we'll finish up with just under 2 million dead. That is where that 2 million figure comes from when you see it.

If we have a vaccine by July then I think we will see football in the fall under some sort of schedule, but I think a vaccine is probably October at the soonest, and maybe not until after Christmas. If we have a treatment that can be demonstrated to be effective by the start of July, I could see practices starting as soon as late August or September. If we have neither, then there will be no sports in the fall, and all classes will continue to be on line until we have one or the other, or we burn through 80-ish percent of the population. How fast we burn through the population depends on the success of the social distancing efforts, and in the final analysis the fatality rate will probably depend upon whether our medical system can be a "bend but don't break" defense. Because if they break, the fatality rate will go up.

 

[earldacoug]

Earl...not to be the cynic here but I am not sure it was about the people dying. It was about more people that didn't need to die because of the lack of testing and facilities.

Things will open up in May. They may ask people such as I to stay home and work from home, and people at other businesses that don't require a person to be at a physical location to stay home. That will reduce the potential of "greater" spread and will relieve traffic in Seattle.

But without a vaccine are you attending football games in the fall? Are you going to a local bar with fellow Cougs to watch away games? My guess is if there are 100 people, 30 will not be at all restrained in their activities. I think 70 will be fairly conservative in their approach until there is a vaccine. Will you be in the 30% crowd or 70%?

We will attend football games this fall if there are any. Might wear a mask. I would go out to restaurants as long as they aren’t packed/seated like sardines. Guessing most will mitigate that now anyways. I don’t go to bars much and that won’t change. I will use common sense, but not going to live my life afraid and under lock and key.

 

[BSpike76]

Do you ever remember a flu season where people were dying so quickly in New York that they had to put refrigerated trucks outside hospitals because someone was dying every two minutes? Do you really think that the media would have covered up a story like that? Do you think that Trump's legion of fans and Fox News would have let the "libtards" and "leftist media" hide a story like that?

All bullsh!t aside, the United States hasn't seen a virus like this since the Spanish Flu. The Hong Kong Flu killed 100,000 Americans in a three year period. It's taken a decade for swine flu to kill that many because while it is very transmissive, it's not particularly deadly. Coronavirus has killed 10,000 people in New York in a fuggin' month and that's with us shutting everything down. You can spin this sh!t however you want, but coronavirus is very contagious and very deadly compared to the last two pandemics. You have no idea what the real mortality rate and whenever we talk about mortality rates.....we use official numbers because that's how it's done. It's never perfect and we know that.

I agree with you that the number will trend down over time as the data improves, but as you said, even the flu estimates are estimates. The only thing that we know is that the real world results in body bags over a short period of time suggests that anyone saying that the numbers are lies are just lying to themselves and anyone willing to listen. Right now, the disease really is killing over 3% of the people that are tested and have it....and that is freakin' terrifying.

Bringing this back around though.....we still need to balance the risk of death with the harm caused by the solution. We can still do that without lying to ourselves about the virus.

Economist had a study of Bergamo, Italy, where the virus got out of control. Usual expected deaths/100,000/week was 20. Covid added 40/ week to that number. Then there were an additional 50/week with unknown reasons while Covid was raging.

Just sayin’.