Tentative return date set

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Not directed at you, but it seems like those that want to punish China should support Trump's trade policy.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/donald-trump-trade-policy-global-translations-1355868

Absent the coronavirus, I think Trump would have won handily. It's a binary decision, and the other choice has a lot of problems, IMO. Even with the coronavirus, I think Trump will win.

I've been out of the loop - seriously turned off the TV 3 weeks ago. I can only hear the blame game for so long, meanwhile CDC play fiddlesticks and conveniently forget that it was they who told us N95 masks were ineffective.

Who outside of Trump (him specifically), wants to punish China? I haven't heard this.

As an aside, anyone who doesn't believe that China acts outside of the established "rules" of international trade is deluding themselves. They steal IP and bribery is an established business practice and essential to making deals.

 

[froropmkr72]

I kind of like riling Trump supporters. Like him, most of them are remarkably thin skinned. It’s more fun in person than on a message board but right now I wouldn’t recommend it. They usually resort to yelling which I understand can spray the virus up to 10 or 12 feet.

Damn funny.

 

[BSpike76]

One of my biggest issues with Biden is that he seems as ill-tempered as Trump, yet gets a pass from the same people who rail on Trump for being a bully. That's not to mention his creepy uncle Joe antics, but again gets a complete pass from the people who can only see far enough past their nose to get rid of Trump, regardless of who replaces him.

Specifically, what mess(es) are you referring to and what do you think he'll do to clean it up?

I think you remember what happened in 2008-2009. If not read up. So you think things are going to be hunky dory in a few months with a deficit of at least $3t this year plus all the debt the fed is cranking out? Oh yeah I forgot, deficits only matter when dems are in office.

 

[AncientCoug]

Specifically, what mess(es) are you referring to and what do you think he'll do to clean it up?

Pretty certain the economy in 2021 will be even worse than the one Obama inherited in 2009. So that’s definitely one mess that will need to be cleaned up. A related mess will be the fiscal health of state, county and city governments all over the country. They will be broke and facing significant budget contractions which will make the economy even worse without federal intervention. Yet another mess will be the pandemic and our response to it. We should be on our third wave of the disease by then. I’m not saying Trump is responsible for creating these messes but they are messes just the same. And I don’t think he has the temperament, judgement or intelligence to be able to clean them up. So far, the measures we have taken to right the economic ship were orchestrated by Nancy Pelosi, Steve Mnuchin, and the Federal Reserve. Trump was uninvolved, basically standing in the corner babbling to the cameras. So yeah, I’ll take almost anyone else.

 

[BSpike76]

Well a trump found his victim to crap on for today. Come on up WHO you’re defunded. That’ll fix the crisis.MAGA

 

[dgibbons]

I've been out of the loop - seriously turned off the TV 3 weeks ago. I can only hear the blame game for so long, meanwhile CDC play fiddlesticks and conveniently forget that it was they who told us N95 masks were ineffective.

Who outside of Trump (him specifically), wants to punish China? I haven't heard this.

As an aside, anyone who doesn't believe that China acts outside of the established "rules" of international trade is deluding themselves. They steal IP and bribery is an established business practice and essential to making deals.

I'm referring to posters on this board.

And China doesn't just steal IP. The state will require IP be handed over as a cost of doing business.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I think you remember what happened in 2008-2009. If not read up. So you think things are going to be hunky dory in a few months with a deficit of at least $3t this year plus all the debt the fed is cranking out? Oh yeah I forgot, deficits only matter when dems are in office.

2008 was the result of malfeasance by big banks. It took more than 1 term for the economy to recover.

I don't think things will be fine for a while, and am dreadfully fearful that we'll see a return to 80's interest rates and inflation. That being said, you didn't address the second half of the question: what policies does Biden propose or support that would "fix" the mess? Raise taxes? Go after the wealthy and big businesses?

 

[AncientCoug]

2008 was the result of malfeasance by big banks. It took more than 1 term for the economy to recover.

I don't think things will be fine for a while, and am dreadfully fearful that we'll see a return to 80's interest rates and inflation. That being said, you didn't address the second half of the question: what policies does Biden propose or support that would "fix" the mess? Raise taxes? Go after the wealthy and big businesses?

There is no magic bullet or any one set of policies that will fix any of this. What I am hoping for is that Biden appoints people who are knowledgeable and that he listens to and accepts their advice. That by the way is something Trump has shown an extreme reluctance to do.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Pretty certain the economy in 2021 will be even worse than the one Obama inherited in 2009. So that’s definitely one mess that will need to be cleaned up. A related mess will be the fiscal health of state, county and city governments all over the country. They will be broke and facing significant budget contractions which will make the economy even worse without federal intervention. Yet another mess will be the pandemic and our response to it. We should be on our third wave of the disease by then. I’m not saying Trump is responsible for creating these messes but they are messes just the same. And I don’t think he has the temperament, judgement or intelligence to be able to clean them up. So far, the measures we have taken to right the economic ship were orchestrated by Nancy Pelosi, Steve Mnuchin, and the Federal Reserve. Trump was uninvolved, basically standing in the corner babbling to the cameras. So yeah, I’ll take almost anyone else.

A) Nancy Pelosi is more concerned with pork than fixing the economy - she said as much. She held the stimulus hostage to put Trumps/ R's feet to the fire in order to get her special interests funded in the bill. This isn't Fox, this isn't rhetoric, these were her own words. So don't give me "Nancy Pelosi fixed the economy." Use the critical thinking skills you learned at college and realize that just because someone has a D next to their name doesn't mean they wear a cape.

B) Mnuchin/ Fed - uh yeah. Duh. That's their jobs. As I said before, POTUS gets too much credit/ blame for everything. Biden's cabinet will presumably do the heavy lifting as well, THATS HOW IT WORKS, but ultimately Biden will get the credit or blame.

 

[dgibbons]

Pretty certain the economy in 2021 will be even worse than the one Obama inherited in 2009. So that’s definitely one mess that will need to be cleaned up. A related mess will be the fiscal health of state, county and city governments all over the country. They will be broke and facing significant budget contractions which will make the economy even worse without federal intervention. Yet another mess will be the pandemic and our response to it. We should be on our third wave of the disease by then. I’m not saying Trump is responsible for creating these messes but they are messes just the same. And I don’t think he has the temperament, judgement or intelligence to be able to clean them up. So far, the measures we have taken to right the economic ship were orchestrated by Nancy Pelosi, Steve Mnuchin, and the Federal Reserve. Trump was uninvolved, basically standing in the corner babbling to the cameras. So yeah, I’ll take almost anyone else.

Pelosi didn't do a thing to right the ship. She was an opportunist, and is often babbling to the cameras. Treasury and the Fed need to keep doing their jobs.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I'm referring to posters on this board.

And China doesn't just steal IP. The state will require IP be handed over as a cost of doing business.

I'd love to see the results of tech moving out of China. Samsung and Apple are making 1000% margin on portable electronics because they can. Let that margin decrease, let them try to charge $2k for a phone, get the electronics repair act to pass unilaterally, and watch phone prices come back down to normal. But I digress...

 

[froropmkr72]

Well a trump found his victim to crap on for today. Come on up WHO you’re defunded. That’ll fix the crisis.MAGA

Interesting and predictable (Fauci saying that "someone is going to be blamed"...look for it in tonight's non-Fox news coverage). Did he get that from Hannity or is he telling Sean to repeat?

 

[Coug90]

Not directed at you, but it seems like those that want to punish China should support Trump's trade policy.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/donald-trump-trade-policy-global-translations-1355868

Absent the coronavirus, I think Trump would have won handily. It's a binary decision, and the other choice has a lot of problems, IMO. Even with the coronavirus, I think Trump will win.

Look at what happened in Wisconsin. Not good for MAGA. Trumps only chance is cheating, gerrymandering, continuing foreign interference, etc. He’s got his base of idiots and those who think a R somehow benefits them financially (99% of his supporters here). He was already losing, his handling of CV-19 has done him in.

 

[Coug90]

One of my biggest issues with Biden is that he seems as ill-tempered as Trump, yet gets a pass from the same people who rail on Trump for being a bully. That's not to mention his creepy uncle Joe antics, but again gets a complete pass from the people who can only see far enough past their nose to get rid of Trump, regardless of who replaces him.

Specifically, what mess(es) are you referring to and what do you think he'll do to clean it up?

JFC dude, I can’t even. Sheep, Flavor Aid, etc. just sad.

 

[AncientCoug]

Pelosi didn't do a thing to right the ship. She was an opportunist, and is often babbling to the cameras. Treasury and the Fed need to keep doing their jobs.

Pretty sure Mnuchin and a Pelosi negotiated the three stimulus bills that were passed. Didn’t see anyone else stepping up to do it.

 

[Coug90]

Pelosi didn't do a thing to right the ship. She was an opportunist, and is often babbling to the cameras. Treasury and the Fed need to keep doing their jobs.

they’re not. They are cow-towing to trump to keep their jobs. Short term band aids that lead to long term dumpster fires.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

JFC dude, I can’t even. Sheep, Flavor Aid, etc. just sad.

I'm sorry you feel that way. Just because MSNBC and CNN doesn't show clips of him behaving poorly doesn't mean it didn't happen. That wasn't FOX's slant on it, it wasn't taken out of context - Biden lost his cool (not the first time) and acted in a manner unbecoming of the office he seeks to occupy.

Here's a comparison for you - how do you think Obama handles being confronted like that? Does he call the guy "full of shit." Does he call him a "horses ass"? Does he call a guy "fat" and challenge him to push ups?

Or am I just completely off base and you think Biden being a tough guy is totally cool! Way to stand up for yourself Joe, against that mean guy using words! Fck that guy, hes a depolorable, so who needs him?!?!

Did I get that about right?

 

[froropmkr72]

I'm sorry you feel that way. Just because MSNBC and CNN doesn't show clips of him behaving poorly doesn't mean it didn't happen. That wasn't FOX's slant on it, it wasn't taken out of context - Biden lost his cool (not the first time) and acted in a manner unbecoming of the office he seeks to occupy.

Here's a comparison for you - how do you think Obama handles being confronted like that? Does he call the guy "full of shit." Does he call him a "horses ass"? Does he call a guy "fat" and challenge him to push ups?

Or am I just completely off base and you think Biden being a tough guy is totally cool! Way to stand up for yourself Joe, against that mean guy using words! Fck that guy, hes a depolorable, so who needs him?!?!

Did I get that about right?

No. He reacted to the notion that Biden was going to take his guns away. Just like they accused Obama of wanting. Didn't happen then ...won't happen under Biden. Given the character of the current guy in office...anyone will be a breath of fresh air.

 

[Coug90]

No. He reacted to the notion that Biden was going to take his guns away. Just like they accused Obama of wanting. Didn't happen then ...won't happen under Biden. Given the character of the current guy in office...anyone will be a breath of fresh air.

Not to mention trump just said “absolute power”’ said it before I’ll say it again. You gun lovers, think you’ll be keeping your guns 3 years into Trumps second term? You won’t. Dictators don’t want common folk owning lethal weapons. It’s not good for longevity.

 

[CougEd]

On the other hand, maybe he was just lucky in the 2016 election and his luck has now run out.

It wasn’t Trump’s brilliance that caused Comey to issue a letter days before the election stating the FBI had found a new cache of Clinton emails with the implication they might be incriminating. The announcement that “oops they are just copies of the emails we already looked at” came too late to reverse the momentum he had given to Trump.

I don’t see that scenario repeating in 2020. The Republicans will try to run the investigation gambit again on Biden but absent a guy like Comey with a (probably undeserved) reputation for political neutrality, it will just look like partisan posturing.

Luck has nothing to do with letting others take the fall, and have his hands washed and rinsed. No other President could have withstood an adulterous affair, soliciting the Russians to help find the emails, or the interaction between his son and the meeting, or Ukraine. Like it or not that is a talent.

 

[Coug90]

L

I'm sorry you feel that way. Just because MSNBC and CNN doesn't show clips of him behaving poorly doesn't mean it didn't happen. That wasn't FOX's slant on it, it wasn't taken out of context - Biden lost his cool (not the first time) and acted in a manner unbecoming of the office he seeks to occupy.

Here's a comparison for you - how do you think Obama handles being confronted like that? Does he call the guy "full of shit." Does he call him a "horses ass"? Does he call a guy "fat" and challenge him to push ups?

Or am I just completely off base and you think Biden being a tough guy is totally cool! Way to stand up for yourself Joe, against that mean guy using words! Fck that guy, hes a depolorable, so who needs him?!?!

Did I get that about right?

Sure...right on bro

 

[CougEd]

Not directed at you, but it seems like those that want to punish China should support Trump's trade policy.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/donald-trump-trade-policy-global-translations-1355868

Absent the coronavirus, I think Trump would have won handily. It's a binary decision, and the other choice has a lot of problems, IMO. Even with the coronavirus, I think Trump will win.

I'm referring to posters on this board.

And China doesn't just steal IP. The state will require IP be handed over as a cost of doing business.

How many trade wars has China lost? They haven't. And they certainly won't lose one against us. As someone told me they can afford to wait us out. And doing it on our own because Trump alienated every friend we had around the world is just a recipe for disaster. If it was a united front then there MAY have been a chance to work.

 

[95coug]

I won't vote for Trump. I don't want to vote for Biden. My whole life, there's only one thing I've wanted in a presidential election - a viable 3rd option.

Unfortunately, the courts have pretty much made it impossible for that to ever happen. In Washington's system, it's going to be more and more rare for anyone other than a D or an R to win anything.

 

[425cougfan]

I think you remember what happened in 2008-2009. If not read up. So you think things are going to be hunky dory in a few months with a deficit of at least $3t this year plus all the debt the fed is cranking out? Oh yeah I forgot, deficits only matter when dems are in office.

Curious how you believe the deficit is going to come into play and make things not "hunky dory in a few months."

 

[kougkurt]

Curious how you believe the deficit is going to come into play and make things not "hunky dory in a few months."

Really surprised at the way the markets are acting. Earnings season has just begun I guess.

 

[CougEd]

Really surprised at the way the markets are acting. Earnings season has just begun I guess.

It is interesting....at some point it will have a sell off. I took some money off the table today. Not sure how the second quarter looks anything less than a disaster .

 

[dgibbons]

Pretty sure Mnuchin and a Pelosi negotiated the three stimulus bills that were passed. Didn’t see anyone else stepping up to do it.

McConnell, Schumer and Mnuchin for the administration. House wasn’t in session.

 

[dgibbons]

How many trade wars has China lost? They haven't. And they certainly won't lose one against us. As someone told me they can afford to wait us out. And doing it on our own because Trump alienated every friend we had around the world is just a recipe for disaster. If it was a united front then there MAY have been a chance to work.

Someone has never heard of the Opium Wars.

I’m happy to heard that someone told you something. That’s super.

 

[dgibbons]

they’re not. They are cow-towing to trump to keep their jobs. Short term band aids that lead to long term dumpster fires.

None of those guys need their jobs.

 

[dgibbons]

Look at what happened in Wisconsin. Not good for MAGA. Trumps only chance is cheating, gerrymandering, continuing foreign interference, etc. He’s got his base of idiots and those who think a R somehow benefits them financially (99% of his supporters here). He was already losing, his handling of CV-19 has done him in.

Biden is 77 and it shows. It’s a binary choice. Tallest midget. Whatever other cliche you want to use.

 

[AncientCoug]

It is interesting....at some point it will have a sell off. I took some money off the table today. Not sure how the second quarter looks anything less than a disaster .

There is a huge amount of dollars sloshing around right now and that will be the case for the foreseeable future. Very little of it is being put to productive uses like expanding existing business or creating new ones. Some is being used in an attempt to save existing businesses but apparently a good bit of it is finding its way into the stock market. That’s causing a market distortion where stock prices are starting to have little relationship to profits or cash flow. How long that can last is anybody’s guess but at some point either corporate profits grow sufficiently to justify the stock prices or the market crashes again. So some selective selling on up days is not a bad idea IMO.

 

[dgibbons]

There is a huge amount of dollars sloshing around right now and that will be the case for the foreseeable future. Very little of it is being put to productive uses like expanding existing business or creating new ones. Some is being used in an attempt to save existing businesses but apparently a good bit of it is finding its way into the stock market. That’s causing a market distortion where stock prices are starting to have little relationship to profits or cash flow. How long that can last is anybody’s guess but at some point either corporate profits grow sufficiently to justify the stock prices or the market crashes again. So some selective selling on up days is not a bad idea IMO.

Can you explain how the money is going into the stock market? I’m doubting that PPP funds and unemployment checks are going into the market.

 

[BSpike76]

Can you explain how the money is going into the stock market? I’m doubting that PPP funds and unemployment checks are going into the market.

Liquidity. Same as the repo money for the last several months.

Maybe when the Schiller pe hits 100 there will be a crash and the debt super cycle will end.

 

[AncientCoug]

Can you explain how the money is going into the stock market? I’m doubting that PPP funds and unemployment checks are going into the market.

I think it works something like this. The Fed is buying up both government and commercial paper on the open market at a significant rate. That drives up the price of existing bond holdings so hedge funds and probably even some mutual funds are selling some of their bond holdings (at a good profit no doubt). That leaves them with a large cash position which they typically don’t want to have. You can’t make a profit holding cash. So they buy stocks and will likely continue to buy stocks until some indicator or set of indicators tells them its time to sell.

 

[AncientCoug]

Can you explain how the money is going into the stock market? I’m doubting that PPP funds and unemployment checks are going into the market.

By the way, that Fed action I described (buying bonds on the open market) is the same thing that Bernanke’s Fed did in 2009. One of the purposes is to drive a flow of money into the stock market. It worked then and is apparently working now. The Fed is prohibited from directly buying stocks so they have to work through the bond market although a change to that law has been discussed.

The potential problem as I see it is that in 2009 the economy recovered fairly quickly and corporate profits grew into their stock prices in a short time. In fact the stock market climbed pretty consistently for the next 10 years. If this pandemic slowdown lasts for say 2 years, corporate profits could lag their stock prices for an extended period and who knows what will happen. Maybe a market panic of some sort.

 

[dgibbons]

By the way, that Fed action I described (buying bonds on the open market) is the same thing that Bernanke’s Fed did in 2009. One of the purposes is to drive a flow of money into the stock market. It worked then and is apparently working now. The Fed is prohibited from directly buying stocks so they have to work through the bond market although a change to that law has been discussed.

The potential problem as I see it is that in 2009 the economy recovered fairly quickly and corporate profits grew into their stock prices in a short time. In fact the stock market climbed pretty consistently for the next 10 years. If this pandemic slowdown lasts for say 2 years, corporate profits could lag their stock prices for an extended period and who knows what will happen. Maybe a market panic of some sort.

Open market actions happen everyday. I thought you were referring to PPP funds and unemployment when you said money sloshing around.

This was the one of the longest if not the longest bull markets in history. A correction was overdue.

 

[BSpike76]

Darn, thought the curve was flattening. Turns out testing dropped 30% in the last week. Maybe it means fewer cases, but wasn’t testing needed to reopen?

 

[dgibbons]

Darn, thought the curve was flattening. Turns out testing dropped 30% in the last week.

I sense a bigly, powerful testing manipulation fake news hoax.

Thanks Obama!

 

[AncientCoug]

Open market actions happen everyday.

Perhaps but the magnitude of the current Fed action is unprecedented. I’m not saying it’s the wrong move - in fact there is probably no other choice. Just something to keep in mind if you decide to quit your day job and become a day trader. Stock market pricing is distorted and very unpredictable right now.

 

[AncientCoug]

Well a trump found his victim to crap on for today. Come on up WHO you’re defunded. That’ll fix the crisis.MAGA

Maybe they had it comin

“The World Health Organization’s regional office for Europe recommended governments restrict access to alcohol and “any relaxation of regulations or their enforcement should be avoided.”