The randomized tests are starting to happen. I guess there was one in Santa Clara, and some others are happening or supposed to happen. IIRC they are the antibody tests that ought to show what percentage of the population has already had it.
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The randomized tests are starting to happen. I guess there was one in Santa Clara, and some others are happening or supposed to happen. IIRC they are the antibody tests that ought to show what percentage of the population has already had it.
There are so many things wrong with this post it's not even funny. It's based on a study that was collected from China. They were doing contact tracing early and often whereas we're not even close to that point in terms of total tests. You also assume that there were many more cases yet don't recognize that there were deaths as a result that were not recorded. It's impossible to detect after death (Perhaps Bryce died after being exposed..we'll never know). The most informed minds claim that they're trying to get to vaccine being created within a year of a breakout, but it's still 18 months....June 2021'. The fatality rate is going to remain 3%plus until there's a much greater amount of testing going on.
During the 17-18 flu season CDC estimates 61,000 people died from the flu. As of right now the count for COVID-19 is 23,070. I'm not going to spend enough time on this to see if CDC broke it down by state. The reason there are refrigerator trucks outside hospitals is because funerals are banned and morgues can't be emptied. Funerals were not banned for the 17-18 flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm
It's appears that randomized testings is beginning to occur, so the mortality rate should come into better focus soon.
If what you are saying is that there were somewhere around 40-90 extra deaths per 100,000 in the past few months....I'd agree that makes sense. Of course, when I googled, "Bergamo Italy coronavirus study"....all that came up were articles that were pointing out the the official death totals were dramatically under-counting the real death totals.....which is your 50/week for unknown reasons number most likely.
Perhaps funerals weren't banned because they didn't have people dying every two minutes from a virus? People keep bringing up "the flu season" and saying that COVID hasn't put up the same numbers. Two months ago, people were talking smack because COVID had only killed a handful of people and over 16,000 die in an "average flu season". COVID kills 20,000 people in roughly a month and people switch their argument to, "Well, 61,000 died in 2017-18". Everyone knows that without all the crap we've dealt with in the last couple weeks, COVID would have killed 61,000 before the second month was up and would kill hundreds of thousands and perhaps millions more before the cycle got through. It is really damned silly to pretend like COVID is anything like the regular flu. Even if things go well, we are going to have over 30,000 known deaths from coronavirus by the end of this month. So, even with the extreme measures, COVID is halfway to matching the previous worst flu season in a decade in around 60 days.
Again, I'm not disagreeing with the notion that we need to evaluate how to move forward in a fashion that doesn't ruin the lives of 20 million Americans. I'm saying that we need to understand that if we make decisions based on economics, we need to be honest with ourselves about the real cost in lives that comes with those decisions. We can't pretend like everything's going to be fine because 61,000 people died from influenza in 2017-18.
Perhaps less hyperbole would be in order too. You're the one dramatizing refrigerator trucks without saying a word about why they're outside hospitals to begin with- no funerals. But hey, don't let something like rudimentary thought get in the way of hysteria.
Whatever. You can pretend like refrigerated trucks outside the hospitals are meaningless if that makes you feel better.
FWIW, I'm far from hysterical. I do think that continued isolation and shutdown that destroys our economy would be terrible. It's just important to remember that we are talking about people dying at rates that far exceed any foolish comparisons to the flu and whether or not we can accept that.
You're never overly dramatic. Never. Never, ever.
Without knowing the infection rate based on a randomized test, you're just dividing the number of deaths by the confirmed number of cases. Neither you nor anyone else knows what the death rate is. You're leaving out people that have mild symptoms and who are asymptomatic, despite the fact that seemingly everyone acknowledges that there are many with mild symptoms or no symptoms. So, posting something like "It's just important to remember that we are talking about people dying at rates that far exceed any foolish comparisons to the flu and whether or not we can accept that." can certainly be viewed as hysteria.
I'm not pretending anything about refrigerator trucks. I understand why they're onsite- funerals are not occurring. Morgues were never intended to hold the dead indefinitely. Do you understand that?
South Spokane County seeks temporary secession from the Republic of Inslee and seeks political asylum with the State of Idaho.
In our locality, hospitals are furloughing medical staff for lack of work.
No refrigerator trucks parked anywhere near Sacred Heart or Deaconess.
Maybe Schwan's trucks delivering meat but that's not what you're referencing, I'll assume.
But you were the one alluding to the early projection of 2.2 million deaths if they did nothing.
I think the CDC comes up with their estimate of the number of flu deaths by looking at the total number of deaths from natural causes during a given flu season and comparing that number to recent historical averages. They also have a number of surveillance networks established that allow them to estimate the number of cases based on symptoms. This compensates for the fact that many people who get the flu and even die from the flu are not hospitalized and are never tested. Even with that level of effort, the best they can do is give a range, which most years is between 20,000 and 60,000 deaths and 30 million to 60 million cases. Those are the estimates for full years with no social distancing or other mitigation measures implemented.
No such estimates have yet been made for COVID 19 so direct comparisons to the seasonal flu can’t really be made at this time. However, the fact that we have 22,000 test confirmed deaths in just a couple of months from COVID doesn’t give me much reason for optimism regarding the probable final death toll. And, there is no doubt the toll would be much higher absent the mitigation measures that were implemented.
Dude.....I'm quoting official statistics and the number provided by the fuggin' World Health Organization. You're the one pulling statistics out of your a$$.
I didn't know my butt was the CDC, and state and regional health departments.
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I linked the Imperial College study that said that. I linked an article from Snopes that fact checked whether Trump called the coronavirus a hoax. I also linked the IHME study that has been greatly revised from the first iteration.
I want no part of a vaccine that’s ready by July or October. Not even sure I want one in 12 months. That timeline tells me it was hurried through and not adequately tested, without evaluation of true effectiveness or side effects.
That's right. After a month of inaction..on the 28th of February- he called it the new hoax.
last time I checked you didn’t need a live audience funeral to bury or cremate someone, but what do I know.
I think it’s a pretty reasonable assessment that in SOME PLACES bodies are piling up because deaths are occurring at a rate much faster than usual specifically because of the virus. Now, to be fair, there’s plenty of variables in play...car accident deaths are probably way down...suicide may be up? Liver failure too? (I haven’t been kind to mine). But I call BS that the only reason there’s bodies piled up anywhere is because funerals can’t be attended.
Idaho is in the elite company of Mississippi and Louisiana in too many areas for me to consider it anything but a fling.
Still better than the dry hand job Olympia passes off as a mutual loving relationship.
Think about it. You can't go buy a casket. No viewings, no religious services, no military honors, no non-essential gatherings of any size in NY, meaning more than one person is not allowed. I guess you could watch from your car.
If it's somebody's mom or dad, who's going to have them unceremoniously dropped into a grave or urn without saying their proper goodbyes at a funeral? I can't imagine not being able to have the opportunity for family and friends to see a loved one off at a proper service.
So it would be preferable to have them stored in a refrigerator truck for a couple of months? To each their own but I would much prefer they burn me timely and scatter the ashes when my time comes.
The point still being that it won't occur in a timely fashion. The trucks outside the hospitals in NYC are not at all surprising. But, they obviously will get people's attention on the evening news.
Whether he actually said the words "coronavirus is a hoax" or not, there's no way to deny that he didn't wave it off as unimportant and refuse to act until weeks after he should have.
Exactly. I’m not in this situation thank god, but people have some time to think this through right? Regardless of the crapfest of disinformation coming from our government on this thing, I would think when someone is in intensive care a conversation could be had with family... “if things go south, here are your options.” Is “pile me (or my husband/wife) up in a refrigerated truck” the Family Feud #1 choice?
Now if it were me it would be a ways down the list, well behind cremate me, and bury me now, celebrate me later.
I certainly agree that for some it doesn't matter what Trump says, doesn't say, or does or doesn't do. He makes it easy to dislike him. People that dislike him are going to criticize him no matter what.
He prohibited Chinese nationals from traveling to the US before this rally (hence the xenophobia), so he did act and closing travel from a country is significant.
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So, how is any of that going to be accomplished in a timely manner with the restrictions in place in NYC? Next of kin need to go to the morgue to claim your remains, buy a casket or urn, make arrangements with a funeral home, etc.
Except it was only non US citizens. Something like 40k came back from China after that with no one tested or quarantined. A bunch more came in from Europe where it was getting going. That’s where NY version of the virus came from.
Having been through a couple of family deaths, I can tell you from experience that you don’t need to go to the morgue to claim the body. You just tell them where to deliver it. So I have to assume the backup is due to overwhelmed funeral homes. They likely have more requests for embalming than they can handle since that’s not something they would have a surplus capacity for. I highly doubt the need for refrigerator trucks is because funeral homes have too many embalmed bodies laying about and had to shutdown due to overcrowding.
That's not what I said. But if I were asked, I'd say that If they're going to make exceptions to the social distancing rules for religious gatherings, than surely a wake for the family to grieve together and say goodbye to their loved one--using proper precautions (e.g., masks, gloves, quarantining after the funeral)--should be allowed.
Funerals and/or memorial services are happening by remote viewing in various states now. Not sure about New York.
Cremations happen all the time with no witnesses; that is the standard method from what I understand. Ashes to be made available later. That is how it has been handled in my family, anyway.
What is missing in all this is the traditional family & friends gathering to mourn the death, celebrate the life, or (if you are traditionally Irish), both. You can cry remotely. You can't hug. It isn't much of a wake without hugs. I suspect there will be a whole pile of delayed wakes in a year or two. I especially pity the families that are in a position of having one big memorial for more than one lost family member. That will probably not be uncommon.
Cremations happen all the time with no witnesses; that is the standard method from what I understand. Ashes to be made available later. That is how it has been handled in my family, anyway.
What is missing in all this is the traditional family & friends gathering to mourn the death, celebrate the life, or (if you are traditionally Irish), both. You can cry remotely. You can't hug. It isn't much of a wake without hugs. I suspect there will be a whole pile of delayed wakes in a year or two. I especially pity the families that are in a position of having one big memorial for more than one lost family member. That will probably not be uncommon.
He didn't close travel from anywhere. He restricted Chinese travelers. That didn't apply to US citizens, Europeans, students, or anyone already approved. Thousands came here - including the first US case, who came here right from the epicenter.
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