Will 2018 be a Rebuild or a Reload?

[COUGinNCW]

I believe there are 13 senior starters so it's logical to think there will be a drop off next year. Has Leach recruited well enough to avoid a losing season in 2018? Will Coug fans be able to handle a drop off? Oregon St probavly regrets running Riley out of town at this point.

A top flight JC DT would sure help with the transition.

 

[M-I-Coug]

I think, for the most part, Reload. Question, do you think will Herc leave early? What about his size?

 

[longtimecoug]

I believe there are 13 senior starters so it's logical to think there will be a drop off next year. Has Leach recruited well enough to avoid a losing season in 2018? Will Coug fans be able to handle a drop off? Oregon St probavly regrets running Riley out of town at this point.

A top flight JC DT would sure help with the transition.

the days of the Mike Pricelike drop offs are over, we should have a pretty decent team next year. recruiting has been good each year, dare I say it, it has been "at a level never seen before"

 

[CougPatrol]

With the amount of talent we lose on defense, it's going to be a rebuild on that side of the ball for sure. We'll hover around the level we're currently at, but maybe a couple of wins less.

 

[CPtheCoug]

I believe there are 13 senior starters so it's logical to think there will be a drop off next year. Has Leach recruited well enough to avoid a losing season in 2018? Will Coug fans be able to handle a drop off? Oregon St probavly regrets running Riley out of town at this point.

A top flight JC DT would sure help with the transition.

Maybe a drop off in terms of perspective? As in we may have just as many wins, but HOW we win will look a lot different. Baring any surprises the O-Line should be about the same (competitively), our WRs and RBs should be solid as will our QB.

Defensively we lose a lot, and we don't have a lot of size up front. If this year's D continues to play like it has Grinch MIGHT be offered a more lucrative position at another school and leave for greener pastures. If that happens I think we'll have a down year.

 

[CougPatrol]

I see Grinch leaving after this season.

 

[dgibbons]

With the amount of talent we lose on defense, it's going to be a rebuild on that side of the ball for sure. We'll hover around the level we're currently at, but maybe a couple of wins less.

I agree. The depth is there on offense to fill the holes.

The interior DL is two seniors and a walk-on. Plus Pelluer and Dotson will be graduating.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Starters for next year? Current starters in bold. This is based on the game notes for Oregon state

X: Tavares Martin Jr.
Y: Jamire Calvin (may be starting by the end of the year)
LT: Andre Dillard
LG: Cedric Bigge-Duren
C: Freddie Mauigoa
RG: Robert Valencia
RT: Josh Watson
H: Renard Bell
Z: Isaiah Johnson-Mack
QB: Tyler Hilinski
RB: James Williams

E: Nnamdi Oguayo
NT: ??
T: Hercules Mata'afa
Rush: Chima Onyeukwu
WIL: Jahad Woods
MIKE: ??
Nickel: Hunter Dale
CB: Darrien Molton
FS: Skyler Thomas
SS: Jalen Thompson
CB: Marcus Strong

Nose Tackle is a position of concern. We have a number of guys who might be able to step into the role but as mentioned by the OP, a good JC guy would be all right. Linebacker is also likely a position of concern. We graduate most of our two deep there. Lots of bodies to work with though. If we can keep Grinch in the fold, I think we'll be serviceable.

Offensively, if the new bodies on the OL work out, we are probably going to be as good as this year and some would argue better, given that Hilinski looks legit. We will miss Morrow and Wicks but it's obvious that Leach and the staff are already believing that Williams is our best option in the backfield.

I see our final record this year between 6-6 and 10-2 with 8-4 being most likely.....again. For next year, we play Woming, San Jose State and EWU in our ooc games. We should go 3-0 against that group. Wyoming will be breaking in a new QB, San Jose State stinks and EWU looks like they've dropped off with Baldwin gone. I believe our rotation for the conference will be @ OSU (W), @ USC (L), Oregon (?), Cal (?), @ CU (?), Arizona (W), @ Stanford (L), Utah (?) and UW (L). I see us going 5-3 in the games that we are most likely to win or lose. The four games against Oregon, Cal, CU and Utah will define next season. One win gets us into a bowl game. Our range for next year is 5-7 to 9-3 with 7-5 being my best guess. One caveat to my list is that Leach is notorious for blowing a game against an inferior team while finding a major upset....so the numbers are right even though the specifics are undoubtedly wrong. If that's a down year...I can live with that.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

I see Grinch leaving after this season.

Why wouldn't he if he aspires to be a HC?

Funny that some are already thinking of next season.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

Starters for next year? Current starters in bold. This is based on the game notes for Oregon state

X: Tavares Martin Jr.
Y: Jamire Calvin (may be starting by the end of the year)
LT: Andre Dillard
LG: Cedric Bigge-Duren
C: Freddie Mauigoa
RG: Robert Valencia
RT: Josh Watson
H: Renard Bell
Z: Isaiah Johnson-Mack
QB: Tyler Hilinski
RB: James Williams

E: Nnamdi Oguayo
NT: ??
T: Hercules Mata'afa
Rush: Chima Onyeukwu
WIL: Jahad Woods
MIKE: ??
Nickel: Hunter Dale
CB: Darrien Molton
FS: Skyler Thomas
SS: Jalen Thompson
CB: Marcus Strong

Nose Tackle is a position of concern. We have a number of guys who might be able to step into the role but as mentioned by the OP, a good JC guy would be all right. Linebacker is also likely a position of concern. We graduate most of our two deep there. Lots of bodies to work with though. If we can keep Grinch in the fold, I think we'll be serviceable.

Offensively, if the new bodies on the OL work out, we are probably going to be as good as this year and some would argue better, given that Hilinski looks legit. We will miss Morrow and Wicks but it's obvious that Leach and the staff are already believing that Williams is our best option in the backfield.

I see our final record this year between 6-6 and 10-2 with 8-4 being most likely.....again. For next year, we play Woming, San Jose State and EWU in our ooc games. We should go 3-0 against that group. Wyoming will be breaking in a new QB, San Jose State stinks and EWU looks like they've dropped off with Baldwin gone. I believe our rotation for the conference will be @ OSU (W), @ USC (L), Oregon (?), Cal (?), @ CU (?), Arizona (W), @ Stanford (L), Utah (?) and UW (L). I see us going 5-3 in the games that we are most likely to win or lose. The four games against Oregon, Cal, CU and Utah will define next season. One win gets us into a bowl game. Our range for next year is 5-7 to 9-3 with 7-5 being my best guess. One caveat to my list is that Leach is notorious for blowing a game against an inferior team while finding a major upset....so the numbers are right even though the specifics are undoubtedly wrong. If that's a down year...I can live with that.

Would Hercules stay another year?

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Would Hercules stay another year?

There's definitely a chance that Hercules will leave. The good news is that although he would be missed, we have a lot of guys that can play defensive end on a three man front. The bigger bodies are the issue. Oregon State made Hercules a non-factor. If others can do that (or at least slow him down), it will make it harder for the NFL to give him a serious look. Some have argued that he is too small for DL in the pros and will get drafted based on his potential to play linebacker, which lowers his stock dramatically and increases the odds that he'll be back next year.

 

[Fab5Coug]

One of the biggest positives I had from the OSU game was seeing Kingston Fernandez get on the field and make a couple plays (face mask not withstanding). He & Mattox might have to be the guys next year.

 

[Fab5Coug]

I believe there are 13 senior starters so it's logical to think there will be a drop off next year. Has Leach recruited well enough to avoid a losing season in 2018? Will Coug fans be able to handle a drop off? Oregon St probavly regrets running Riley out of town at this point.

A top flight JC DT would sure help with the transition.

Really depends on what you consider a "rebuild". I don't think we'll see another 3 win type season, but a 5 win season would not surprise me at all. This team loses a lot of D, and despite how Hillinski looked, it's always tough to replace a QB, especially a multi year starter.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Really depends on what you consider a "rebuild". I don't think we'll see another 3 win type season, but a 5 win season would not surprise me at all. This team loses a lot of D, and despite how Hillinski looked, it's always tough to replace a QB, especially a multi year starter.

I think the D will definitely take a step back, but depending on the OL the offense might be fine. TH and these WRs will have had a lot of snaps together and should be a well oiled unit I would think.

The biggest question I have for the offense is how TH will use the run and his game-changing RB Williams? If the WR corps can learn to block halfway decent, Williams could have an incredible year/ career.

 

[dgibbons]

One of the biggest positives I had from the OSU game was seeing Kingston Fernandez get on the field and make a couple plays (face mask not withstanding). He & Mattox might have to be the guys next year.

As far as I know, Mattox has not played a single meaningful snap. Not exactly good news heading into a season where you need him to be a stalwart.

 

[froropmkr72]

I believe there are 13 senior starters so it's logical to think there will be a drop off next year. Has Leach recruited well enough to avoid a losing season in 2018? Will Coug fans be able to handle a drop off? Oregon St probavly regrets running Riley out of town at this point.

A top flight JC DT would sure help with the transition.

They've offered a couple JC DE'sa and maybe going after DT' as well as a MLB type. I could see 4 total JC players this year..thta's including the JC WR who's verballed.

 

[brettcraycraft51]

if hercules continues at his current level of production, there's a good chance some nfl team makes it tough for him to come back for his senior year. he's a game-changing talent and the nfl is a lot more creative about figuring out how to use them than it used to be. it's not like they have to choose between d-end and linebacker. there are any number of ways to deploy an explosive pass rusher like him. and re: his size, tj watt is three inches taller but 20 lbs lighter and was taken in the first round. not saying he's a first rounder, just that results sometimes matter more than measurables...

 

[Fab5Coug]

I think the D will definitely take a step back, but depending on the OL the offense might be fine. TH and these WRs will have had a lot of snaps together and should be a well oiled unit I would think.

The biggest question I have for the offense is how TH will use the run and his game-changing RB Williams? If the WR corps can learn to block halfway decent, Williams could have an incredible year/ career.

OL replaces a lot too. 3 starters. Salmonson, presumably wouldn't be too tough to replace, but O'Connell & Madison? That's a lot of experience to lose.

 

[CougEd]

if hercules continues at his current level of production, there's a good chance some nfl team makes it tough for him to come back for his senior year. he's a game-changing talent and the nfl is a lot more creative about figuring out how to use them than it used to be. it's not like they have to choose between d-end and linebacker. there are any number of ways to deploy an explosive pass rusher like him. and re: his size, tj watt is three inches taller but 20 lbs lighter and was taken in the first round. not saying he's a first rounder, just that results sometimes matter more than measurables...

If he were to come out and if he were invited to the combine, that would be a big if, when he stepped on the scale that would push him down to the 6th round to free agent. Where was Rien long taken and he was 280-290. Could he play a 3-4 rush backer? Probably not.

He is a very productive player. Let me rephrase that he is a great college football player. That doesn't always translate. Wicks (slim chance) might have a good a chance to get drafted as Hercules and he doesn't even start.

 

[CougEd]

Really depends on what you consider a "rebuild". I don't think we'll see another 3 win type season, but a 5 win season would not surprise me at all. This team loses a lot of D, and despite how Hillinski looked, it's always tough to replace a QB, especially a multi year starter.

It could be as much of a function of schedule as really how good they are. OSU will still be struggling next year. How many players does Cal return. Oregon I would think will be more experienced next year. Same as the UW. USC probably will drop off without Darnold.

Where does Utah, CU, Arizona and ASU all fit in? From what I have seen our QB situation next year is in better shape than ASU, Arizona, OSU, USC and UCLA. If we go 3-0 in Non conference we should get to six wins, if we go 2-1 I could see with all the important parts we are missing 5-7.

 

[froropmkr72]

OL replaces a lot too. 3 starters. Salmonson, presumably wouldn't be too tough to replace, but O'Connell & Madison? That's a lot of experience to lose.

Can't take 5th year seniors who come in their last possible year and play well ...for granted.

 

[longtimecoug]

Can't take 5th year seniors who come in their last possible year and play well ...for granted.

didn't salmonson greyshirt and then redshirt?is he really 7 years removed from high school? talk about a late bloomer

 

[kayak15]

OL replaces a lot too. 3 starters. Salmonson, presumably wouldn't be too tough to replace, but O'Connell & Madison? That's a lot of experience to lose.

I'm not overly worried about next year's OL. We do indeed lose a lot but Leach has stockpiled replacements behind them. Unproven, yes, but the potential is there. It is some of the spots on defense that have me concerned.

 

[brettcraycraft51]

Where was Rien long taken and he was 280-290. Could he play a 3-4 rush backer? Probably not.

christ, do even read the posts you reply to? i specifically made the point that nfl defenses are much better than they used to be at getting talented pass rushers into position to make plays. any interest in engaging with that point beyond citing a player who was drafted 15 years ago?

 

[CougEd]

the days of the Mike Pricelike drop offs are over, we should have a pretty decent team next year. recruiting has been good each year, dare I say it, it has been "at a level never seen before"

Isnt that a Donlad Trump line?

 

[CougPatrol]

Next years non-conference schedule is:

@ Wyoming (who lose their all-world, NFL QB)
San Jose State
Eastern WA

With the experience and talent that Hilinski has already shown, I'm not worried about the offense. Leach gives me complete confidence on that side of the ball.

The defense is going to be scary new in the front-7, but the non-conference schedule should be very manageable. The conference schedule rotation (I think) is the same as this year, meaning we'll get Colorado and USC on the road, and Utah and Arizona at home, to go with our usual P12 North schedule.

I could see 7 wins next season, especially if we're able to find some JC help on the defensive line.

 

[CougEd]

christ, do even read the posts you reply to? i specifically made the point that nfl defenses are much better than they used to be at getting talented pass rushers into position to make plays. any interest in engaging with that point beyond citing a player who was drafted 15 years ago?

I did read your post. I thought the initial post was about Hercules getting drafted this year.
He is an undersized DT. Others will come into the league with his quickness and be 25 pounds heavier. When Leach spoke of Hercules, he spoke in terms of his quickness off the ball and his leverage. Rien Long was quick of the ball and was a reference of where he got picked, even 15 years ago. What more current? Destiny who had better straight line speed than Hercules. He wasnt drafted. Barber had the NFL size and he wasn't invited to camp.

The point is in case you missed it once they see he is 250 and has 4.9 or worse speed, he isn't getting drafted. It could be argued the combine means more than a kids college resume. Look at the other side of the ball. Gabe Marks was ultra productive. Where is he?

Leach spoke of Hercules and said what makes him special is leverage and initial burst. He said his straight line speed is average. So maybe they do find a place for him on the dline line in the pros, but I would be very surprised if he is drafted especially this year.

 

[BiggsCoug]

The DL development will be interesting to watch. I think they're moving towards 6'4" and taller with recruits. Grow them heavier....

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Helinski is looking pretty decent. There will be skill position guys. Lots of OL on roster. The D will have a lot of newer people. Pelleur may request a 6th year, and may even get it.

Good shot at 7 wins.

 

[froropmkr72]

Isnt that a Donlad Trump line?

The Donald stole all his lines from Paul Wulff

 

[longtimecoug]

Isnt that a Donlad Trump line?

not chump, that is your icons line

 

[longtimecoug]

I did read your post. I thought the initial post was about Hercules getting drafted this year.
He is an undersized DT. Others will come into the league with his quickness and be 25 pounds heavier. When Leach spoke of Hercules, he spoke in terms of his quickness off the ball and his leverage. Rien Long was quick of the ball and was a reference of where he got picked, even 15 years ago. What more current? Destiny who had better straight line speed than Hercules. He wasnt drafted. Barber had the NFL size and he wasn't invited to camp.

The point is in case you missed it once they see he is 250 and has 4.9 or worse speed, he isn't getting drafted. It could be argued the combine means more than a kids college resume. Look at the other side of the ball. Gabe Marks was ultra productive. Where is he?

Leach spoke of Hercules and said what makes him special is leverage and initial burst. He said his straight line speed is average. So maybe they do find a place for him on the dline line in the pros, but I would be very surprised if he is drafted especially this year.

as a d lineman his 40 speed doesn't mean much

 

[Coug90]

Would Hercules stay another year?

Hercules is not leaving. He's probably our best player but he's not a fit in the NFL YET, and would not be drafted high if at all. He's a 250 lb d tackle/end. If he was 20 lbs heavier OR had a significant number of snaps standing up on the edge, might be a different story. He will be back no question. He needs to add 20-25 lbs in the next year, and he will be an attractive Michael Bennett type for NFL teams.

 

[Fab5Coug]

Helinski is looking pretty decent. There will be skill position guys. Lots of OL on roster. The D will have a lot of newer people. Pelleur may request a 6th year, and may even get it.

Good shot at 7 wins.

PP is not eligible for a 6th year. Have to miss more than 1 season for that.

 

[random soul]

I think, for the most part, Reload. Question, do you think will Herc leave early? What about his size?

Herc is a classic 'tweener. If he were to end up at the Senior Bowl next year playing at end and showed the ability to hold the edge, I think he'd end up there in the pros, maybe as a 3-4 end/nickel pass rush defensive tackle. What makes him special is his first step and his ability with leverage, but if an NFL guard got ahold of him I doubt that would end well, and his overall speed isn't really NFL linebacker caliber. He might have Tedy Bruschi's ability to disrupt an offense, but he's not the same player, sorry Rod Gilmore. He's really about 20 years too young, a generation ago he would've been something in the right defense at the pro level. Guys were still playing guard and nose tackle at 260ish until the late 90s

 

[random soul]

I believe there are 13 senior starters so it's logical to think there will be a drop off next year. Has Leach recruited well enough to avoid a losing season in 2018? Will Coug fans be able to handle a drop off? Oregon St probavly regrets running Riley out of town at this point.

A top flight JC DT would sure help with the transition.

The offense will be fine. Maybe not as consistent without some of the leadership gone, but as long as the offensive line pans out everything else lines up ok. Defensively I agree that the interior line looks really small, though by 2019 the skinnier kids that came in this fall should be big enough to do the job, and the back seven will bring back plenty of bodies. Not sure who the next kicker will be, that'll be another question mark.

 

[random soul]

If he were to come out and if he were invited to the combine, that would be a big if, when he stepped on the scale that would push him down to the 6th round to free agent. Where was Rien long taken and he was 280-290. Could he play a 3-4 rush backer? Probably not.

He is a very productive player. Let me rephrase that he is a great college football player. That doesn't always translate. Wicks (slim chance) might have a good a chance to get drafted as Hercules and he doesn't even start.

I actually think Wicks might stick somewhere. He's bigger and faster than Morrow and has enough wiggle to get by, and doesn't have much tread on his tires. Both will get a shot I'm sure, though I don't know if either gets drafted.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Herc is a classic 'tweener. If he were to end up at the Senior Bowl next year playing at end and showed the ability to hold the edge, I think he'd end up there in the pros, maybe as a 3-4 end/nickel pass rush defensive tackle. What makes him special is his first step and his ability with leverage, but if an NFL guard got ahold of him I doubt that would end well, and his overall speed isn't really NFL linebacker caliber. He might have Tedy Bruschi's ability to disrupt an offense, but he's not the same player, sorry Rod Gilmore. He's really about 20 years too young, a generation ago he would've been something in the right defense at the pro level. Guys were still playing guard and nose tackle at 260ish until the late 90s

Unless he has MB's height and levers, he's nowhere near being a pro pass rushing DT.

His best option is standing up in a 34 defense. He will be eaten alive on his first snap in practice if he's asked to put his hand down. More weight may not help him unless he can keep his speed.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Unless he has MB's height and levers, he's nowhere near being a pro pass rushing DT.

His best option is standing up in a 34 defense. He will be eaten alive on his first snap in practice if he's asked to put his hand down. More weight may not help him unless he can keep his speed.

Bennett is listed as an end.

HTH

 

[BiggsCoug]

Bennett is listed as an end.

HTH

Cause he's never taken snaps inside.... hth