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cr8zyncalif

cr8zyncalif

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It seems pretty likely that if this is a low scoring, defensively tilted game, UW will probably win again. At the other extreme, if it is a track meet, we win going away. Reality is probably somewhere in between.

Let's see what the modest, non-self effacing genius UW D coordinator dials up. If we have good field conditions there will be no weather excuses, one way or the other.

I think it will all come down to the Coug O line.

I actually think we have at least as good, and quite possibly a better (or at least more effective) O line this year than last. Not having a first round draft pick seems to have forced the rest to pick up their game. Are they better run blockers this year? I'll say probably not, but probably close to as good. On the other hand, are they better pass blockers as a unit? I'm going to give a qualified yes. Gordon is not as mobile as Minshew, but Gordon seems to have had more times (anecdotal; not based on research, just my observation) when he spent big chunks of a game flat footed, standing almost forever looking for a receiver. God and everybody has been used in blitzes, and the times that the blitz wasn't picked up are few and far between. There have been errors of commission, but few errors of omission.

I'll also note that Gordon has gotten better at judging when to check to a run as the season has progressed.

This year the O line gets it done and Gordon has a great game. We win, 41-27.
 
WSU has to sell out to hit Eason and stop the run. Our level of success doing that, and how well we use Borghi, will determine whether we win or lose. Incidentally, the main reason we were more competitive with Cal this year than we were in Berkeley two years ago is Borghi is a beast on blitz pickups. Wilcox confuses the hell out of our o-line.
 
Pressure is on Eason!! Fans are turning on him. We are already bowling. This husky D is solid, but not the dominant d they have been. Can our d limit them early and can we get a lead against them for once.
 
I feel now as I do every year...like "we have the better team", "we're due", etc, etc. And every year I also think "who are you kidding? A Leach team never reaches the same intensity for the AC as the mutts."
Exactly how I feel again this year....
 
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I'm in the gotta see it first to pick it. They drop 8 and blitz from weird places, Leach makes zero adjustments as usual. Our defense can't stop anything. My big hope is actually AG is more the type of QB we need to give us a chance, he is willing to take chances and put balls in tighter windows than Falk/Minshew, of course this means he might throw 6 INT's on Friday as well, but if he is on, maybe just maybe...but I'm not gonna pick that.

UW 34, WSU 21
 
Cougs who can look back on the last 6 years of getting stomped out no matter where the game is, with EXACTLY the same gameplan every year, and then look at this road game coming up and feel like it's a "Coug lean" are great fans. They're also TERRIBLE judges of probability and should be under 24/7 house arrest for everyone's safety.

I see us losing the turnover battle again as Tony Halliday puts up big numbers but tries to fit throws into tight, covered windows (yes, I understand I'm not as virtuous a fan as you). We'll move the ball although AG will take a few bad sacks or INTs as it takes him longer to identify the open receiver, as it did with Cal & OSU. I don't think UW has the horses to stymie us entirely on offense though. I do agree we need to make Eason win the game. We are not going to drop back and break up midrange sideline passes while also getting great penetration and pressure. There is almost no incremental risk in applying pressure as our DBs will give up that yardage no matter the playcall. Shut down the run game, use Borghi, limit turnovers, and never take your foot off the gas.

55-0 Cougs. Montlake kids are soft. /s

34-24 dog breed that is not native to Seattle and is therefore a strange and underwhelming mascot
 
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chipdouglas said:
34-24 dog breed that is not native to Seattle and is therefore a strange and underwhelming mascot
Click to expand...

I've always found it funny that they use a picture of a Malamute when their mascot is a husky...
I guess Malamutes are fluffier and they like that...
 
Forecasting this game is pretty simple. We can’t hold any teams under 30. They don’t allow teams to score over 30. They’re the home team. They beat us every season.

WSU 24
UW 45
 
couginphx said:
I'm in the gotta see it first to pick it. They drop 8 and blitz from weird places, Leach makes zero adjustments as usual. Our defense can't stop anything. My big hope is actually AG is more the type of QB we need to give us a chance, he is willing to take chances and put balls in tighter windows than Falk/Minshew, of course this means he might throw 6 INT's on Friday as well, but if he is on, maybe just maybe...but I'm not gonna pick that.

UW 34, WSU 21
Click to expand...

What adjustments do you want him to make ? The air raid is attacking space on the field assuming the o line gives the qb time to make his reads.
 
royhobbs2 said:
What adjustments do you want him to make ? The air raid is attacking space on the field assuming the o line gives the qb time to make his reads.
Click to expand...
No adjustments can be made. It is completely impossible. It's either orthodox Air Raid canon, or send Mike Leach packing and rehire Paul Wulff to a lifetime contract.

But seriously, here's a good primer on other concepts we can mix in without abandoning the Air Raid. Personally, I would like to see us - for certain games or scenarios or drives - adopt some of Baylor's Veer & Shoot concepts.

And before anyone says there's not enough time left in the season to adapt, a loss this Friday would mark the 7th straight time we've brought a knife to a gunfight. Or, to quote Super Troopers, showed up as a "biker":

 
royhobbs2 said:
What adjustments do you want him to make ? The air raid is attacking space on the field assuming the o line gives the qb time to make his reads.
Click to expand...
I think that is for the coach to figure out, but doing the same thing over and over, something insanity...I'm honestly willing to bet for UW this game defensively, at least, is the easiest prep all year, dust off the previous years game plan, and there you go. Now, difference being maybe the players won't execute it as well and/or we will execute better, and that can change things, but so far its the same thing over and over.
 
chipdouglas said:
No adjustments can be made. It is completely impossible. It's either orthodox Air Raid canon, or send Mike Leach packing and rehire Paul Wulff to a lifetime contract.

But seriously, here's a good primer on other concepts we can mix in without abandoning the Air Raid. Personally, I would like to see us - for certain games or scenarios or drives - adopt some of Baylor's Veer & Shoot concepts.

And before anyone says there's not enough time left in the season to adapt, a loss this Friday would mark the 7th straight time we've brought a knife to a gunfight. Or, to quote Super Troopers, showed up as a "biker":

View embedded media
Click to expand...
I agree with your general sentiment historically, and I’m 99% sure I’ll be pissed off Friday afternoon because we brought the knife. What’s important to remember is we have one of the most badass guns in the conference in Borghi. He needs to get 25 touches in this game, 15+ on the ground. I don’t think we need to change anything schematically against this UW D, but if they have no fear of our running game be the 2nd quarter, we are F’d and Gordon will throw more picks than TDs.
 
Prediction: UW will mug our receivers and bear hug our D line, all ignored by refs. Cougs will play a spirited first half and keep it close, but thats about it. Mazza will make some long kicks. Our defense seems to bring out the best in mediocre offenses, so expecting Eason will have a helluva game. Harris will get a really long return. 35-17 Mutts.
 
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702coug said:
Prediction: UW will mug our receivers and bear hug our D line, all ignored by refs. Cougs will play a spirited first half and keep it close, but thats about it. Mazza will make some long kicks. Our defense seems to bring out the best in mediocre offenses, so expecting Eason will have a helluva game. Harris will get a really long return. 35-17 Mutts.
Click to expand...
Yeah, my fear too. UW OLine holds like a MFer and they are always grabby with our receivers.
 
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chipdouglas said:
Cougs who can look back on the last 6 years of getting stomped out no matter where the game is, with EXACTLY the same gameplan every year, and then look at this road game coming up and feel like it's a "Coug lean" are great fans. They're also TERRIBLE judges of probability and should be under 24/7 house arrest for everyone's safety.

I see us losing the turnover battle again as Tony Halliday puts up big numbers but tries to fit throws into tight, covered windows (yes, I understand I'm not as virtuous a fan as you). We'll move the ball although AG will take a few bad sacks or INTs as it takes him longer to identify the open receiver, as it did with Cal & OSU. I don't think UW has the horses to stymie us entirely on offense though. I do agree we need to make Eason win the game. We are not going to drop back and break up midrange sideline passes while also getting great penetration and pressure. There is almost no incremental risk in applying pressure as our DBs will give up that yardage no matter the playcall. Shut down the run game, use Borghi, limit turnovers, and never take your foot off the gas.

55-0 Cougs. Montlake kids are soft. /s

34-24 dog breed that is not native to Seattle and is therefore a strange and underwhelming mascot
Click to expand...
I'm going to disagree with one point. UW's secondary is not what they have been, and the windows will be bigger. Gordon will find some of them. He'll also decide that what worked once will work again, so he'll throw into triple coverage...again...and get burned.

Their line also isn't what it has been, so I think his jersey continues to stay pretty clean.

Other than that, I can't argue. We don't score on the road, and our D doesn't stop anyone...anywhere. I refuse to make a score prediction that doesn't have WSU with the bigger number, but there's really no logical way to pick us in this one. That requires assuming that we do everything against what the last 11 games have told us we will.



But...if we do switch things up... we can make this a game if we'll lean on the run more. If they drop 8, run Borghi. Run delays and some weak play action. Fewer long, deep routes early - run some comeback routes and take throws under the defense. All of this will pull the defense back up, and then we can look deeper.
They know all about the check down throw into the flat, so move it. Use the 2-back sets. Leak Borghi and McIntosh partway into the flat, then drag them back over the middle. Hell, set it up with a lead blocker to clear out the first LB.
But...we won't do that.
 
95coug said:
I'm going to disagree with one point. UW's secondary is not what they have been, and the windows will be bigger. Gordon will find some of them. He'll also decide that what worked once will work again, so he'll throw into triple coverage...again...and get burned.

Their line also isn't what it has been, so I think his jersey continues to stay pretty clean.

Other than that, I can't argue. We don't score on the road, and our D doesn't stop anyone...anywhere. I refuse to make a score prediction that doesn't have WSU with the bigger number, but there's really no logical way to pick us in this one. That requires assuming that we do everything against what the last 11 games have told us we will.



But...if we do switch things up... we can make this a game if we'll lean on the run more. If they drop 8, run Borghi. Run delays and some weak play action. Fewer long, deep routes early - run some comeback routes and take throws under the defense. All of this will pull the defense back up, and then we can look deeper.
They know all about the check down throw into the flat, so move it. Use the 2-back sets. Leak Borghi and McIntosh partway into the flat, then drag them back over the middle. Hell, set it up with a lead blocker to clear out the first LB.
But...we won't do that.
Click to expand...
I agree, IF we keep feeding Borghi. Every fricken year we completely abandon the run in this game. Now in fairness last year was a bit different because the weather was such a cluster so let’s throw that out.

If Borghi gets stuffed once or twice is Gordon/Leach going to throw every play? If that happens Gordon’s throwing lanes will shrink dramatically, and he will struggle. If they have to account for Borghi running it, he will have the windows he needs.
 
Coug90 said:
I agree, IF we keep feeding Borghi. Every fricken year we completely abandon the run in this game. Now in fairness last year was a bit different because the weather was such a cluster so let’s throw that out.

If Borghi gets stuffed once or twice is Gordon/Leach going to throw every play? If that happens Gordon’s throwing lanes will shrink dramatically, and he will struggle. If they have to account for Borghi running it, he will have the windows he needs.
Click to expand...
That's why I like the 2-back sets. McIntosh seemed like he was getting his feet under him last week...and I'm hoping that the light bulb went on for Gordon when he put the OSU game in Borghi's hands. But if we've got 2 serviceable backs that we'll actually use, UW's defensive game plan goes out the window.
 
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Coug90 said:
I agree, IF we keep feeding Borghi. Every fricken year we completely abandon the run in this game. Now in fairness last year was a bit different because the weather was such a cluster so let’s throw that out.

If Borghi gets stuffed once or twice is Gordon/Leach going to throw every play? If that happens Gordon’s throwing lanes will shrink dramatically, and he will struggle. If they have to account for Borghi running it, he will have the windows he needs.
Click to expand...

I thought they did a decent job of getting the ball to the RBs last year. It was really the only thing working, other than throwing to Jackson.
 
95coug said:
That's why I like the 2-back sets. McIntosh seemed like he was getting his feet under him last week...and I'm hoping that the light bulb went on for Gordon when he put the OSU game in Borghi's hands. But if we've got 2 serviceable backs that we'll actually use, UW's defensive game plan goes out the window.
Click to expand...

The fact they were actually looking for McIntosh to do something is big step forward. If that wheel had been on target or if he doesn't bobble it, he would have had over 100 yards receiving.

AND A SHOVEL PASS WORKED!
 
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dgibbons said:
I thought they did a decent job of getting the ball to the RBs last year. It was really the only thing working, other than throwing to Jackson.
Click to expand...
Still trying to forget last year. Didn’t really matter much cuz Minshew couldn’t throw the ball.

If that was the case would be great to see again. Can’t win this game if Borghi only gets 7-8 carries. I say this knowing that UW will dare us to run the ball.
 
dgibbons said:
The fact they were actually looking for McIntosh to do something is big step forward. If that wheel had been on target or if he doesn't bobble it, he would have had over 100 yards receiving.

AND A SHOVEL PASS WORKED!
Click to expand...
Yeah, was very positive seeing McIntosh play well. The whole playbook needs to be open when Borghi gets his breathers and it seems like it probably is now, and McIntosh will make some plays. That screen was impressive, he’s got some jets.
 
I don't predict CML game plans well, so take this for what its worth...not much. I fully expect the same D game plan from UW. In the same way that we don't do anything different every year, neither do they, so you know what we'll see. As noted above, 8 positioned to drop. Frequently (more than 1/3 of the time) 4 guys rushing with the 4th coming from some seemingly random location.

We can move the ball, sustain drives and score if and only if we can generally accomplish the following:

- Gordon checks to the run such that we run the ball more than 15 times, preferably closer to 20. Occasionally we need to run against 6 or even 7 showing in the box, on the assumption that several LB's won't stay in the box once the ball is snapped.
- We only actually run a bubble screen if our guys are set, at least one DB is back playing soft and we have WR's who actually block in the formation. Under those circumstances we make it work.
- We need to run at least one shovel pass on 3rd and more than 6 in the first half to keep them a little bit honest. If we do it 1st quarter and it works, we do it again once before the half.
- Borghi goes out for a pass every time he doesn't have to pick up a blitz. Maybe a delayed route, depending upon what he has to wait to see in the rush.
- Finally....Gordon DOES NOT force the ball when we are inside the UW 10. His success or at least no harm rate in forcing it when we are that close is maybe 2 out of 3. He is somewhere in the 1 out of 3 to 1 out of 4 range for disaster when he forces a throw. Tight windows work pretty well at mid-field. They simply don't work as well close to the goal. Figure it out.

As for the D, if we play the Stanford game plan and execute with few stupid penalties, we should be able to hold UW to 4-5 scores. Some of those will be FG's. That puts it back on the O again, unless...

Special teams. If we break a play or two we will be in good shape. If we bust a play or two it will cost us. Our goal is no busts. If everybody executes, then there will (ipso facto) be no busts.
 
Coug90 said:
Still trying to forget last year. Didn’t really matter much cuz Minshew couldn’t throw the ball.

If that was the case would be great to see again. Can’t win this game if Borghi only gets 7-8 carries. I say this knowing that UW will dare us to run the ball.
Click to expand...
If we see a 3 man front and they drop 8, we are making a major mistake if we don't run Borghi down their throat.
 
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I was going to predict a win until I saw Leach's press conference. Either he is sandbagging, or he doesn't expect to win either. Went out of his way to compliment everything about the UW. My guess is that he doesn't want any twittering like last year.
 
Straight from the Lou Holtz handbook. Talk about how wonderful the opponent is and how afraid of them you are.
 
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dgibbons said:
I thought they did a decent job of getting the ball to the RBs last year. It was really the only thing working, other than throwing to Jackson.
Click to expand...

Curious on Jackson> are they trying to red-shirt him ? If so has he already played 4 games or will this be his 4th ?

Asking because on the replay that guy has some serious acceleration speed and would be a good weapon in this game.
 
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PINGDUDE4 said:
Curious on Jackson> are they trying to red-shirt him ? If so has he already played 4 games or will this be his 4th ?

Asking because on the replay that guy has some serious acceleration speed and would be a good weapon in this game.
Click to expand...
Last week was his 4th.
 
PINGDUDE4 said:
Curious on Jackson> are they trying to red-shirt him ? If so has he already played 4 games or will this be his 4th ?

Asking because on the replay that guy has some serious acceleration speed and would be a good weapon in this game.
Click to expand...

OSU was his fourth game. I can’t recall if Leach has said anything or not, but it seems clear they want him to redshirt.
 
GrayOnGray said:
I was going to predict a win until I saw Leach's press conference. Either he is sandbagging, or he doesn't expect to win either. Went out of his way to compliment everything about the UW. My guess is that he doesn't want any twittering like last year.
Click to expand...

cr8zyncalif said:
Straight from the Lou Holtz handbook. Talk about how wonderful the opponent is and how afraid of them you are.
Click to expand...

my favorite part:

CML: "We're very proud to be on the same field with those guys"

hahahaha - love CML - if that isn't tongue in cheek what is?
 
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