Can/will the P12 survive?
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The Big 12 gets Oregon, Utah, Arizona St, Arizona and Colorado. In exchange we get Kansas, Kansas St, Tex Tech, TCU and Iowa State. Just threw up in my mouth.
I think a lot of it depends on if their is a seat at the big boys table for UW, Oregon and Stanford and if the B12 has thier act together, which historically they haven't. I know Scott screwed the Pac, but it still seemed to be a stronger conference (at a organizational level) then the B12. If the B10 doest want the huskies, ducks or cardinals, they really are not in a different situation then us, though I could see Stanford going independent. I don't see them jumping ship to the B12.
The B10 has a lot of nobodies and has beens i. the league. The top of the conference needs talent. Hence, SC. Oregon would be a big get for them too, they beat Ohio State last year. The uw sucks ass and always will suck ass. They are still better than Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, etc.
Why do I feel like Stanford and Cal like being West Coast schools? I dunno.
Would be nice to see some schools stand up and say we love being here and aren’t leaving.
I agree, but it seems like USC and UCLA and the B10 have been working on this for a while to the surprise or Oregon, UW and the rest of the conference. No one else was invited to the party. Definitely see them moving on in a few year, but not this year. If that hold true the Pac survives and couple of years and commish has his work cut out for him.
The AAU is a social club for chancellors and presidents. But...the Big 10 has never admitted a school that did not have AAU status. Nebraska did lose their AAU status about a year after joining the Big 10. Money is king. The only way to explain the Big 10 offering membership to Rutgers and Maryland - eyeballs on the tv. The other ugly possibility is editing. We are headed toward two super conferences. Within those conferences are schools that don't bring the dollars to the party - Vanderbuilt, Mississippi St., Ole Miss, South Carolina, maybe Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue. I don't know if there is a procedure that enables a conference to kick out a school or not, but this is about money and the biggies are eventually going to not want to carry some of these schools. Let the killing begin.
Interesting that the LA market is coveted by the Big 10, simply because of it's TV market share.
The truth is, there doesn't seem to be a ton of interest in college football in LA. People in LA don't really care about Trojan or Bruin football, unless they're a student, a hardcore fan, or an alum that happens to be a fan.
When was the last time a USC or UCLA home game was sold out? LA people don't care. They're off doing other things on Saturday. But what's even more interesting is that I can't imagine TV ratings are that great.
Who in LA is going to be watching when UCLA vs. Maryland is at 9:00am on a Saturday morning?
The truth is, there doesn't seem to be a ton of interest in college football in LA. People in LA don't really care about Trojan or Bruin football, unless they're a student, a hardcore fan, or an alum that happens to be a fan.
When was the last time a USC or UCLA home game was sold out? LA people don't care. They're off doing other things on Saturday. But what's even more interesting is that I can't imagine TV ratings are that great.
Who in LA is going to be watching when UCLA vs. Maryland is at 9:00am on a Saturday morning?
This is a great point. With 20 teams in the conference and 2 teams getting a bye each week...that is 9 games on a Saturday (maybe a Friday night game to make it 8?).
Anyway, how is this helping the overall ratings/cash flow if these games have to all be stacked up all day on a Saturday? Very few will be interested in Maryland vs UCLA at 9am as you point out.
In hindsight, it's a good thing we didn't build that 80K seat stadium.
Apparently (and not surprisingly) UW and UO already reached out to the Big 10 and got turned down.
If they were interested in any more pacific teams, they would have talked to them along with SC/UCLA. I think if they expand at all, they first try to pull from the SEC. Or the Kansas schools, and last Iowa state/Oklahoma state. There’s little incentive for them to take UO/UW. UO provides some competition in football and sometimes basketball, but has an outsized opinion of their value and doesn’t bring a market that compares to the top half of the existing Big 10. Kansas gives them more in basketball and a couple whipping boys in football. Iowa state/OkSU bring little more than geography and a few decent opponents. They might just stand at 16….for now.
More importantly, this proves that UO and UW are not reliably committed to anything but themselves (again, no surprise). That should figure into planning going forward.
I read an article that said that all 10 remaining teams had reached out to either the Big 10 or Big 12 to gauge interest.....so I don't think anyone is well positioned to throw stones.
I would say that KU has a good chance of being invited to the B1G.....I don't believe that KSU has a reasonable chance to be invited. After talking with a Cyclone alum, Iowa does NOT want Iowa State in the B1G and they will fight that vigoruously.
Just read another article that claims Big 10 is waiting on a decision from Notre Dame. If the Irish join, they may take oregon, UW, Stanford, or all 3. If the Irish stay out, they hold at 16.
Also read there's discussion of UNC if ND accepted. That seems more tied to Stanford being in the mix. I simply doubt they have much interest at this point whether they are wanted or not. It's not like they are hurting from a perception or resource standpoint.
It’s a high financial bar for ACC teams too. To this point, it’s apparently cost so much for any team to leave that none have seriously considered it.
This is all motivated by money, so that’s not necessarily insurmountable, but probably more complicated and expensive than any non-ACC option.
The LA market that almost all locals don't care about the Trojans or the Bruins. Seriously. The majority don't care.
I know that. You know that. The B10 shows up once a year to a packed Rose Bowl, has a great time, their fans love it, they go home thinking it was awesome.
The West Coast sees it as a shithole filled with people that don’t care about football.
Jokes on them.
That market probably cares a lot more about Liga BBVA MX league games than UCLA/USC.
The Pac 12-2 conference issued a statement today saying they were committed (the remaining 10) to staying together and would look at all possibilities for expansion. This would be my strong preference. Adding Ok State and Texas Tech or Kansas would keep the flavor or the conference together and be extremely competitive. They don't have the name or the media market that USC/UCLA (who does) but in terms of performance in the major sports the teams I mentioned have done every bit as well as UCLA and USC in the last 10 years.
Fundamentally, the Pac12 has a geography problem...and a cultural problem. Those cannot be fixed.
UCLA and USC are going to find out this will be tough being in the B1G.
In the current environment, I’m not sure that’s out of reach. Big 10 teams are already getting $40M per year in their deals. New contract probably goes even higher.
If they want to poach someone from the ACC, and the ACC team is game, they make a deal. ACC team pays 10-20%. Each Big 10 team kicks in a 1-time cut of about $3M from their TV money next year, and the penalty is paid. Their contribution gets repaid almost immediately with the increase in value in the new TV deal.
I wouldnt expect anyone else to pay that bill bit the school that left. There are ways to make it more palatable for sure.
If Im one of the big 3 left in the ACC, Im not paying $50,000,000. They can wait. And they will.
No, I mean the Big 12 teams chip in for the penalty. In the long run (maybe only a year or two) they’ll benefit financially anyway.
I dont see any scenario where a league’s teams agree to write checks for millions of dollars to cover the buyout of a team. Doesnt matter id they benefit down the road or not. No state institution is going to agree to that.
Greed is the stumbling block. Even state institutions could - if they wanted to - temporarily alter a conference revenue sharing agreement. It’s not taxpayer money, and at that point it’s not even athletics funds.
Now, would they agree? Some might. Most probably wouldn’t. I’d just about bet that the private schools who could pay it out of their own funds would be the least likely to agree.
In the end, I think the ACC is extremely unlikely to lose any teams in this cycle. But I don’t think they’ll make it to the end of their contract either.
I also think it’s unlikely that WSU and the PAC-whatever continue as P-5. The only scenario that allows that is the Pac-12/Big12 merger, and I don’t think the Big 12 has much incentive to take on all of us.
I don’t agree. Other than CA which is relatively stagnant growth wise right now all of the other states in the west are exploding with growth compared to the rest of the country. On business deals it’s as much about the future as the now. The west geography should be enticing considering future prospects but we had an arrogant dipshit at the wheel for 11 years. Companies with good fundamentals burn to the ground when they have shitty leadership and terrible strategy.
not likely that the ducks get a tailor made schedule to help them into the playoff from the big 10
If Pac 12, go after either 2 or 4 of Ok St, AND EITHER Texas Tech, OR Kansas,
or Baylor, and at least Ok St, and 1 of the others, the Big 12 dies.
If Pac 12 goes after either 2 or 4 of either, and at least Ok St, and 1 other, and either Gonzaga, Or BSU, Or UNLV, or SDSU, then Big 12 on life support.
If Pac 12 adds Ok St, Kansas, Baylor, BSU, UNLV, SDSU, then the Pac 12(10) goes to Pac 16, kills, ends the threat of Big 12, and with Oregon, Ok St, Utah, Stanford, UW, Baylor, Cal, Kansas, Arizona, Colorado, Arizona State, WSU, BSU, UNLV, SDSU, Ore St, which would still be a pretty good P4/P5 conference(Depending if Big 12 conference dies or not.)
Call the Saudis, maybe they can help the Pac with a few more dollars.
As the SEC and Big 10 keep gobbling up teams, the are trying to form a 36-40 super league, cover all the major markets, similar to the NFL. In theory it sounds great, but the a missing many important points. Tradition, rivalries, and passion just to name a few. That is what makes us fans, we are tied to our schools because we went there, had friend that played their, family members that went there, just to name a few passionate reasons. I would watch a USC or UCLA game, simply because they are in our conference. Well if I am not in yourconference or “new league”, I am not watching any of the games I really don’t care. I could be wrong, but I think there are a lot of people that feel the same way. This is driven by TV revenue, like stock that runs up because of the hype, ratings may climb, but eventually they fall, because they are missing the fundamentals that make college sports special.
As the SEC and Big 10 keep gobbling up teams, the are trying to form a 36-40 super league, cover all the major markets, similar to the NFL. In theory it sounds great, but the a missing many important points. Tradition, rivalries, and passion just to name a few. That is what makes us fans, we are tied to our schools because we went there, had friend that played their, family members that went there, just to name a few passionate reasons. I would watch a USC or UCLA game, simply because they are in our conference. Well if I am not in yourconference or “new league”, I am not watching any of the games I really don’t care. I could be wrong, but I think there are a lot of people that feel the same way. This is driven by TV revenue, like stock that runs up because of the hype, ratings may climb, but eventually they fall, because they are missing the fundamentals that make college sports special.
Good thing we didn’t move the apple cup to ellensburg and spend 100 mil on an indoor practice facility
If I wanted to watch a 40-team professional league, I’d watch the NFL. And as for the NFL-lite “National” BCS Championship Dr. Pepper-Allstate Advertisement Spectacle with some filler of Alabama vs Georgia (for the 3rd time in the season after inter-conference and SEC champ. Games have been played as a formality prior to them being automatically given playoff berths in separate brackets to ensure they meet in the final) thrown in, count me out. Burn the whole thing down cuz this NIL, players getting paid while skipping games to “focus on their NFL aspirations, transfer portal, super conference-tradition-in-the-toilet, money Uber alles bullshite the NCAA is selling us as “college football” is not worth a minute of my Saturdays.
That's exactly what will happen, but it won't derail the plan. We live in a Walmart world. They'll have a 36-40 team super league, and the same top-15 of them will dominate the upper echelon. The traditional rivalries and David vs. Goliath subplots that make college sports so great will largely disappear; particularly out West where football is already trending down.
If it goes this route, I hope the 60+ Group 6 / tier 2 programs unify their own league with their own playoff. It works in Europe, where some historically popular futbol is played below the D1 level. WSU in a league of 12 other Mountain West type programs would still be fun for me.
I think because I got started following WSU when we didn't even play home games in Martin Stadium, I'm not as afraid of these changes as a lot of people are. Despite the USC, UW, UCLA, etc. power programs offering unlimited scholarships and having every conceivable advantage over us, we still managed to field some fun teams to watch. Hopefully that will continue, and I think it will. Scheduling home games in November vs. the likes of San Jose State and Wyoming will be ugly attendance wise, but I'll bet you our attendance numbers won't be much worse than they are now. That's what's funny about WSU. We always seem to hover around 25K-30K fans/game.
Just no way that's gonna happens. Mountaineers have enough difficulty with road games during conference play. 'Eeer minor revenue sports road games are already a tremendous $ burden for them.
With the Mad Cows gone they could rejoin the B12 but that won't happen because of the
humongous $ difference.
Corn left us because of the Mad Cows dictating the conference.
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