I'll give you a vision of the future, with which perhaps none of you will agree. It will take 5 minutes to read, so skip it if you are ADD.
The current state of election lying and hate/tribal mongering has turned many a stomach, including my own. There are a lot of people from both parties who are not only tired of that, but also tired of the extreme portions of each party controlling their party's agenda. It is looking like Israeli politics. I think there is a desire for a positive change. Here is one example of how I think that will take place within my lifetime (I am early 60's). And while it may not start in California, California will be a prime driver in the change.
The Republican party in CA has been winning stupid awards for 30 years on the immigration issue. Other issues, as well, but immigration is their poster child for dumb. CA's economy desperately needs a guest worker program for several key industries...just to name a few: grape, fruit, nut and veggie picking; meat processing; ranching; dairy; service industries of many types; and portions of residential construction. Every one of those industries is controlled by the more conservative block of the state. So the state party's insistence on demonizing illegal immigrants has hurt the Republicans here not only with those who could be expected to sympathize with the immigrants themselves; it has also hurt the Republicans with a good chunk of the business owners. I could go into more detail, but I think I've made that point. Just based on those I know, I'd hazard a guess that maybe 2/3 of the independents here are folks that have left the Republican party due at least in part to these positions.
As several of you have noted above, there is no such thing as a monolithic voting block. The evangelicals are probably the closest to that, since their leadership all follow the same business model...but even with the evangelicals there are those who don't drink the same koolaid as the rest. The key blocks for change for the Republicans in CA will be the hispanics and the asians. The asians are already majority conservative by most counts. The hispanics have a huge conservative component...the failure of the Republicans to appeal to conservative Catholics and conservative hispanic Protestants (probably the fastest growing individual segment in CA, though it started small and is still no where near as big as the Catholic church) has been a leadership failure of epic proportions. What has changed is that there are now some hispanics and asians reaching leadership positions within the party, and the party's abject failure to win elections is finally having some effect. I expect someone in CA politics to start a bipartisan movement for immigration reform that will include a legitimate guest worker program...in some ways similar to what we had up through the 60's...and it will be truly bipartisan. The business owner group I cited above, as well as others, will support this from the Republican side. The Catholic and evangelical Protestant hispanic churches will support it. In all likelihood there will be either a hispanic or asian Republican leading that charge. Of course the liberal wing of the Democrats will have to support it; they really won't have a choice after the last 30 years of criticizing the Republicans here for being stupid about immigration. And the political center of both parties will see it as a path forward. I could go on, but I've made my point about what I expect to see over the next 5-10 years.
Once you remove the immigration obstacle, the biggest remaining social hot issue is probably the LGBTQ etc. issue. I can only report what I see, but from where I am sitting, the conservative position on this issue has softened considerably. Now that it is not as socially prohibitive to identify as being a part of that group (which, again, is not a political monolith), a lot of conservative families have learned that a family member is part of this group. That has had the expected result. We actually have some conservative LGBTQ politicians in SoCal, and I expect that to continue. That is important from an electoral standpoint for many reasons, but a few to consider are the elimination of yet another emotional club for the Democrats to use on the Republicans and the splintering of what was heretofore a reliably Democratic voting group.
To sum up: I see Republicans in CA making immigration a positive, pro-business and pro-human rights issue. And I see a general tendency to simply leave the LGBTQ issue alone...essentially live and let live, surprisingly in line with the current Pope's thoughts. That old saw about California leading the nation...regardless of whether CA is truly first...is going to happen. And with those issues out of the way, the traditional Republican issues...fiscal responsibility, a fair tax system, reasonably free trade, etc., will again become relevant items for people as they make their voting decisions. I foresee CA leading a path away from social issue politics, mostly because the center will have agreed to let go on a lot of the social issues, and the total failure of the Republican party here will cause even the zealots to look for a way to again be relevant.
I'm sure many if not most of you will disagree. But I have legitimate hope...really, more than just hope...that CA will head in that direction. Sooner rather than later.
