Massey's view of 2023 WSU football

[Flatlandcoug]

I hadn't looked at Massey's ratings this year but I checked it out today. The good news is that our schedule is pretty damned manageable if we don't suck. Following is his breakdown:

Easy wins: CSU, N Colorado, Arizona, Stanford and Colorado
Close wins: ASU, Cal
Close losses: OSU, UCLA
Likely losses: Wisconsin, Oregon, UW

He says we beat CSU by 19, N. Colorado by 39, Arizona by 10, Stanford by 8 and Colorado by 20. His ratings are based on the past performance of teams so the Buffaloes are obviously a bit of a mystery at this point. ASU and Cal are road games and we'd be favored to beat both of them by a touchdown or more in Pullman.

OSU and UCLA are games that would be tossups in Pullman. Personally, I think UCLA is going to struggle this year. It looks like they may be starting a true freshman at QB. Their opening schedule is squishy soft and they'll probably start 3-0 but they face Utah right before they play us. I think it's a game that we have a great opportunity to win.

Massey is predicting yet another 7-5 finish for the Cougs and that wouldn't be the end of the world. Obviously a lot has to happen the right way for that to pan out.

 

[mikalalas]

I hadn't looked at Massey's ratings this year but I checked it out today. The good news is that our schedule is pretty damned manageable if we don't suck. Following is his breakdown:

Easy wins: CSU, N Colorado, Arizona, Stanford and Colorado
Close wins: ASU, Cal
Close losses: OSU, UCLA
Likely losses: Wisconsin, Oregon, UW

He says we beat CSU by 19, N. Colorado by 39, Arizona by 10, Stanford by 8 and Colorado by 20. His ratings are based on the past performance of teams so the Buffaloes are obviously a bit of a mystery at this point. ASU and Cal are road games and we'd be favored to beat both of them by a touchdown or more in Pullman.

OSU and UCLA are games that would be tossups in Pullman. Personally, I think UCLA is going to struggle this year. It looks like they may be starting a true freshman at QB. Their opening schedule is squishy soft and they'll probably start 3-0 but they face Utah right before they play us. I think it's a game that we have a great opportunity to win.

Massey is predicting yet another 7-5 finish for the Cougs and that wouldn't be the end of the world. Obviously a lot has to happen the right way for that to pan out.

ATHLON, Lindy's, Massey's, Phil Steel, and about 75% of similar like ESPN, SI, 247, Rivals, etc, as examples, say that WSU is probably going to win 7, and a bowl, because of EASY schedule, and because of World Class OC, a more mature O Line, the turnaround of Cam in Spring Game, and Dickert finding, Getting 1,2,3,4 highly sought after 3,4 star JC, Grad, Transfer Portal Transfers, for, to replace every player that graduated, left early, transfered out, etc, that caused holes that each hole was plugged.

While 1 of those sources can be wrong, ALL of those sources combined, are usually not wrong, when combined, saying same, agreeing with each other.

And while there have been times that all are wrong, usually not all are wrong.

The fact that so many of those sources, predict 7 wins for WSU, that's telling, saying something.

 

[ttowncoug]

I think Arizona will be decent this year. They've been doing well with recruiting. That has to pay off soon.

I think UCLA will decline...OSU might be down as well.

Wisconsin, in my opinion, might be down a bit with a new coach coming in and we catch them early before they start to mesh.

 

[Coug90]

I think Arizona will be decent this year. They've been doing well with recruiting. That has to pay off soon.

I think UCLA will decline...OSU might be down as well.

Wisconsin, in my opinion, might be down a bit with a new coach coming in and we catch them early before they start to mesh.

Wisconsin being in the likely loss category is interesting. 1. We beat them last year at Wisconsin. 2. This is a big game for the program and the atmosphere should make things tough on Wisconsin. It won’t be quite Oregon/CGD atmosphere but I think about as close to it as you are going to see outside of a top 25 clash in the AC. If I were to handicap this game now it would be a pick ‘em to slight Coug favorite.

 

[CougInSpain]

Wiscy has one of the nations best RBs and if they utilize him better, he could run all over our asses.

 

[Wazzubrooz]

Look at the stats of last years win in Madison. Everything had to be ‘perfect’ for WSU to edge out the Badgers. We will not win this year playing like last year at all.

 

[Coug90]

Look at the stats of last years win in Madison. Everything had to be ‘perfect’ for WSU to edge out the Badgers. We will not win this year playing like last year at all.

That game was far from perfect. Cougs punched them in the mouth for 60 min. Watson and Jenkins were the best backs on the field and are both back m. Offense was still finding its way.

Wisconsin will have a different look, but I wouldn’t call this a likely loss.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

That game was far from perfect. Cougs punched them in the mouth for 60 min. Watson and Jenkins were the best backs on the field and are both back m. Offense was still finding its way.

Wisconsin will have a different look, but I wouldn’t call this a likely loss.

History suggests that it's a likely loss, but the Badgers never really got their crap together last year in a meaningful way. They recovered enough to go 7-6, but they were lucky to even qualify for a bowl game last year. Nebraska had them dead to rights at home and gacked because they don't know how to win games.

There's no doubt that we should have a puncher's chance of beating the Badgers in Pullman.

 

[Coug90]

History suggests that it's a likely loss, but the Badgers never really got their crap together last year in a meaningful way. They recovered enough to go 7-6, but they were lucky to even qualify for a bowl game last year. Nebraska had them dead to rights at home and gacked because they don't know how to win games.

There's no doubt that we should have a puncher's chance of beating the Badgers in Pullman.

We are 1-0 against non conf power 5 teams in Martin Stadium.

I’m not sure history has much precedent here. Two things I’ll say to the contrary. When the Cougs have winning teams, Pullman has been a tough place to play for everyone but the other UW.

Home or away…mostly away, WSU has handled itself well against Non Conf P5 opponents. Aside from Wisc last year, almost knocked off ND and tOSU in early 2000s. Upsets at Tennessee, Nebraska, Michigan State.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

We are 1-0 against non conf power 5 teams in Martin Stadium.

I’m not sure history has much precedent here. Two things I’ll say to the contrary. When the Cougs have winning teams, Pullman has been a tough place to play for everyone but the other UW.

Home or away…mostly away, WSU has handled itself well against Non Conf P5 opponents. Aside from Wisc last year, almost knocked off ND and tOSU in early 2000s. Upsets at Tennessee, Nebraska, Michigan State.

From the internet:

Washington State vs conferences 1980-2021

stassen.com

WSU has the following records against Power 5 conferences since 1980:

ACC: 1-0
Big 12: 5-9
Big 10: 7-13
SEC: 1-6
Pac-12: 143-197-4

I'm a little surprised that Miami is the only ACC team that we've faced in the past 40+ years. Our winning percentage against Pac-12 opponents is slightly better than our record against other Power 5 conferences. Our history suggests that we have about a 1 in 3 chance of beating Wisconsin and you are right that we rarely get to see Power 5 teams in Pullman, so our winning percentage is undoubtedly skewed by that.

FWIW, WSU is 5-23 against Power 5 OOC opponents with 7+ wins and our wins were in the 1994 Illinois, 2003 Holiday Bowl, 2015 Sun Bowl, 2018 Alamo Bowl and 2022 Wisconsin. So, it's a pretty select list but it's a list that has Wisconsin on it.

Of course, historical statistics only mean so much when it comes to these types of things. Wisconsin appears to be below average by their standards and they have a lot of questions. If our o-line and Cam can get their crap together, we definitely have a chance to win.

 

[Coug90]

From the internet:

Washington State vs conferences 1980-2021

stassen.com

WSU has the following records against Power 5 conferences since 1980:

ACC: 1-0
Big 12: 5-9
Big 10: 7-13
SEC: 1-6
Pac-12: 143-197-4

I'm a little surprised that Miami is the only ACC team that we've faced in the past 40+ years. Our winning percentage against Pac-12 opponents is slightly better than our record against other Power 5 conferences. Our history suggests that we have about a 1 in 3 chance of beating Wisconsin and you are right that we rarely get to see Power 5 teams in Pullman, so our winning percentage is undoubtedly skewed by that.

FWIW, WSU is 5-23 against Power 5 OOC opponents with 7+ wins and our wins were in the 1994 Illinois, 2003 Holiday Bowl, 2015 Sun Bowl, 2018 Alamo Bowl and 2022 Wisconsin. So, it's a pretty select list but it's a list that has Wisconsin on it.

Of course, historical statistics only mean so much when it comes to these types o. Wisconsin appears to be below average by their standards and they have a lot of questions. If our o-line and Cam can get their crap together, we definitely have a chance to win.

Good stuff. Does this include bowls or just reg season?

To your point, and mind from earlier, almost all of these games excluding bowls if that’s part of this were road games. A decent number of them were expected losses against top flight teams at the time (Auburn, Nebraska, tOSU, ND, etc). That said I’d consider 1/3 holding our own, and there was a few that we had in the bag too!

You’re right though, history doesn’t matter it’s just fun to look at. I sorta look at it like playing a pretty good UCLA team or Oregon State team at home…probably Wisconsins equivalent RN. While we know those are gonna to be tough games, certainly wouldn’t put them in the loss column.

 

[Coug1990]

From the internet:

Washington State vs conferences 1980-2021

stassen.com

WSU has the following records against Power 5 conferences since 1980:

ACC: 1-0
Big 12: 5-9
Big 10: 7-13
SEC: 1-6
Pac-12: 143-197-4

I'm a little surprised that Miami is the only ACC team that we've faced in the past 40+ years. Our winning percentage against Pac-12 opponents is slightly better than our record against other Power 5 conferences. Our history suggests that we have about a 1 in 3 chance of beating Wisconsin and you are right that we rarely get to see Power 5 teams in Pullman, so our winning percentage is undoubtedly skewed by that.

FWIW, WSU is 5-23 against Power 5 OOC opponents with 7+ wins and our wins were in the 1994 Illinois, 2003 Holiday Bowl, 2015 Sun Bowl, 2018 Alamo Bowl and 2022 Wisconsin. So, it's a pretty select list but it's a list that has Wisconsin on it.

Of course, historical statistics only mean so much when it comes to these types of things. Wisconsin appears to be below average by their standards and they have a lot of questions. If our o-line and Cam can get their crap together, we definitely have a chance to win.

Nice informative link. When you look at the P5 out of conference records, WSU is 7-8 on a neutral field. On the road, WSU is 7-20. Of course, they are 1-0 at home. I think WSU is better against OOC teams when they play at home or on a neutral field than is thought.

 

[Coug1990]

Good stuff. Does this include bowls or just reg season?

To your point, and mind from earlier, almost all of these games excluding bowls if that’s part of this were road games. A decent number of them were expected losses against top flight teams at the time (Auburn, Nebraska, tOSU, ND, etc). That said I’d consider 1/3 holding our own, and there was a few that we had in the bag too!

You’re right though, history doesn’t matter it’s just fun to look at. I sorta look at it like playing a pretty good UCLA team or Oregon State team at home…probably Wisconsins equivalent RN. While we know those are gonna to be tough games, certainly wouldn’t put them in the loss column.

It has to include bowls, as playing Miami was in a bowl.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Nice informative link. When you look at the P5 out of conference records, WSU is 7-8 on a neutral field. On the road, WSU is 7-20. Of course, they are 1-0 at home. I think WSU is better against OOC teams when they play at home or on a neutral field than is thought.

STASSEN.COM College Football Information

The master index to college football information on this site. All-time I-A win/loss records and preseason magazine information.

stassen.com

The above is one of my favorite websites when it comes to looking up scores and football record related information. He uses another website to extract his data:

Historical Scores - Alphabetically by Team

www.jhowell.net

and of course, every Coug should know the following by heart:

Washington State Historical Scores

www.jhowell.net

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Great info! Thanks for passing it along.

As for the Wisconsin game, in my limited, small mind, it is going to come down to our O line. If we can put together a credible run threat (which will require a competent passing attack), then we do indeed have a puncher's chance. The better we can run the ball, the better chance we have. If we run at least 25% run plays and average 4 yards or more per carry, I think we win. Still close to a win at 3.5 ypc. If less than 3, I see a loss. I'll add that I don't see good things happening without some significant utilization of the TE. I think we have to put Wisconsin in the mode of defending both the run and the TE pass, including a delayed TE pass, in order to open things up in the passing game. And that means the O line gives Cam at least 3 seconds. Which, with the TE in the game, should be possible. I would not be shocked if the TE is in 40% + of the plays. It has been a loooong time since I've said that!

 

[wazzucougs96]

This team has 4-8 written all over it. Anything better than that is either luck or late bloomers shining.

 

[Coug90]

This team has 4-8 written all over it. Anything better than that is either luck or late bloomers shining.

Let’s hope not based on this. I think the pac 12 will be pretty good this year but we miss USC and Utah, so that should help. My guess is 7 wins but I think we have a decent amount of close shootouts which can get you to 4-8 if the ball doesn’t bounce your way

 

[wazzucougs96]

FWIW, WSU is 5-23 against Power 5 OOC opponents with 7+ wins and our wins were in the 1994 Illinois, 2003 Holiday Bowl, 2015 Sun Bowl, 2018 Alamo Bowl and 2022 Wisconsin. So, it's a pretty select list but it's a list that has Wisconsin on it.

Why aren't we counting the win over Baylor in the Alamo Bowl?

 

[cr8zyncalif]

If we have just an average O line we are looking at 7 wins, with a better shot at 8 than 6. However, the O line is the major question, so everything remains to be seen.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Why aren't we counting the win over Baylor in the Alamo Bowl?

They were in the Southwest Conference at the time.......

 

[wazzucougs96]

They were in the Southwest Conference at the time.......

So were Texas and Oklahoma and aTm...

 

[Flatlandcoug]

So were Texas and Oklahoma and aTm...

Ummmm...they were at one point in time. We played Baylor in 1994. They didn't join the Big 12 until 1996. We played OU and Texas when both of them were in the Big 12 (2002 and 2003 respectively). We haven't played Texas A&M since the 1940s. My snapshot stopped at 1980.

If you were to look at the site where I gathered the data, they included Colorado as a Big 12 opponent for our games played back in the 90's and early 2000's. The records are based on conference affiliation at the time of the game. So, even though USC and UCLA are going to be B1G teams soon, that website would reflect our past games as Pac-12 conference games.

 

[wazzucougs96]

Ummmm...they were at one point in time. We played Baylor in 1994. They didn't join the Big 12 until 1996. We played OU and Texas when both of them were in the Big 12 (2002 and 2003 respectively). We haven't played Texas A&M since the 1940s. My snapshot stopped at 1980.

If you were to look at the site where I gathered the data, they included Colorado as a Big 12 opponent for our games played back in the 90's and early 2000's. The records are based on conference affiliation at the time of the game. So, even though USC and UCLA are going to be B1G teams soon, that website would reflect our past games as Pac-12 conference games.

No I am saying that 1994 Baylor/the SWC was a major conference and the win should count.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

No I am saying that 1994 Baylor/the SWC was a major conference and the win should count.

Fair enough.

 

[Coug90]

If we have just an average O line we are looking at 7 wins, with a better shot at 8 than 6. However, the O line is the major question, so everything remains to be seen.

Seems like the O-Line is always a major question. I see tempo with Arbuckles offense along with a more confident Cam making our OLine look better.

 

[ttowncoug]

Look at the stats of last years win in Madison. Everything had to be ‘perfect’ for WSU to edge out the Badgers. We will not win this year playing like last year at all.

Our offense was crap last year. Call a spade a spade. Morris bubble screen attack wasn't effective and it was predictable.

I'm optimistic Arbuckle's air raid is going to be both unpredictable and explosive. Cam should be more mature and posed. If Cam uses his legs more -- which he will be told to do - we could be hard to stop.

Combine that with a decent defensive front, we should be pretty good is my prediction.