Spread down to 10.5
- Thread starter 32eekortS
- Start date
It probably should be single digits. OSU lacks in certain areas, but as the season has gone on they have improved and don't kill themselves with self-inflicted mistakes.
We will win if we play like we did last week, but at this point I think OSU is probably a better team than Stanford...so it is not a gimme and single digits would not be a shock. Besides, the OSU fans are hungry for hope, and this game provides that, along with the magic 6 win bowl eligibility. The decrease in the spread shows pretty clearly that the OSU crowd is putting money down.
Unless OSU pulls out a rabbit and beats UO, this game is their shot at a bowl. They will be ready. We should be, as well. Promises to be a good game.
We will win if we play like we did last week, but at this point I think OSU is probably a better team than Stanford...so it is not a gimme and single digits would not be a shock. Besides, the OSU fans are hungry for hope, and this game provides that, along with the magic 6 win bowl eligibility. The decrease in the spread shows pretty clearly that the OSU crowd is putting money down.
Unless OSU pulls out a rabbit and beats UO, this game is their shot at a bowl. They will be ready. We should be, as well. Promises to be a good game.
Interestingly enough, OSU has played well on the road (3-1) and bad at home (2-4). They also have given up more points than they have scored (311-312 overall, and 202-222 in conference).
Looking at their schedule, it appears their away schedule is weaker that it is with its home games. They caught AZ St slippin' last week at home. I don't think you will see the same out of the Cougs this weekend. At least I hope not.
Their schedule is weak in general. Road games against Hawaii, UCLA, Cal, Arizona. Home games have been more challenging and they’ve lost to everybody but Cal Poly and ASU (who has now lost 4 in a row). Oklahoma State, Stanford, Utah, UW all beat them in Corvallis.
Somebody was arguing with me about strength of schedule. I don’t care about SOS “rankings.” Oregon State has played patsies on the road and has played their challenging teams at home. It seems like it’s been the opposite for WSU: Oregon and Utah on the road. The ASU team we faced in Tempe was not the same team Oregon State played in Corvallis last weekend. They’ve completely tanked.
This mental midget WSU team is capable of losing to anybody, but Oregon State is a bad team. Poopy-butt, stinky, hodgepodge of random skill players.
I’m not a gambler but I think from what I’ve seen in all of sports, particularly football, there’s a momentum factor that’s extremely important but also difficult to measure. We know as far as betting lines go, the goal is to get equal action on either side. I think OSUs improvement throughout the season and momentum at the moment is undersold. WSU has been up and down week to week. My line on this game would be Cougs by 3. I think it’s going to be back and forth.
That was me, and unfortunately reality does not hinge on you "caring" about SOS.
Pointing the finger at a division opponent who is playing all the same teams, but who has a stronger schedule out of conference, is utterly bemusing.
But I suppose that is where you "don't care" things into nonexistence...
As someone else pointed out, the bookies are setting the line based on the betters—They’re trying to entice folks to bet on the beavers by setting the large spread so as to have fairly equal money on both teams, which guarantees they make money.
Yeah, I get how lines work generally (although, as an aside, I have read that it sometimes is more complex -- sometimes they try to actually come out on one side, not just to get the spread), but (i) I'd have set it at -6.5 to get equal action on both sides and (ii) the general explanation of how lines work is what I'm referring to. A line that's heavily tilted to one side wouldn't support an argument that they're trying to get money on both sides. What lunatic would bet WSU -15.5?
I don't bet on sports (or anything for that matter) but I think the idea is that since it's a home game for the Cougs and they just trounced the Cards, the bookies set the spread high enough that people are willing to put money on the Beavs to cover the spread, then as the bets come in they start to lower the spread to make it more appealing to put money on the Cougs and even out the bets.
Cool ... yeah, I'm not a huge gambler, but I don't think they'd set it it what they believe is an unnaturally high level just to get money on the Beavs, since that would primarily be expected to result in people making a relatively high-percentage wager on the Beavs and very few (you'd think) willing to bet on the Cougs at that level.
When it then got to a level where people generally are betting on both sides, you'd then just have people filling in the rest of the wagers on both sides at the -12 level, and that early cadre of bettors with the relatively solid risk/reward bets of the Beavs +15.5.
Instead, I think the linemakers usually set it where they actually expect bettors to bet both ways, with the line then moving to reflect where bettors are actually betting.
General thought is that the home field is worth 3 points, but that's not a hard and fast rule if teams are particularly good or bad at home or on the road. Vegas linemakers are usually incredibly good and account for everything.
I don't do really well on betting spreads, but to my eyes it looks like something like 8 points would be close.
Oregon State played a decent OOC team at home and got destroyed. They played a bad OOC team on the road and lost. They played a worse OOC team at home and won. They didn’t have to play at Oregon, like WSU did, and they played Utah at home (and got destroyed) instead of on the road in a storm like WSU did. That matters. They also played ASU in Corvallis after they had lost 3 straight, instead of in Tempe while the Sun Devils we’re playing well and ranked. That matters. Sure, they played at Cal like WSU did and played UCLA down there. WSU shit the bed against both of those teams. Both of those teams suck. That’s on WSU. Both teams played Stanford at home, far different results. The Beavers beat Arizona, WSU beat Colorado, both of those teams suck.
Oregon State’s challenges have all come at home. WSU’s have been on the road. I think you’d rather have your tougher opponents on your home field, right?
Like I say I’m not expert, but I’d expect that to get even betting the line would have to be pretty high given 1) we have an excellent home record going back several years, 2) we’re putting up a lot of points, 3) the Beavs just aren’t very good, 4) we showed some signs of life in putting a pretty good beating against Stanford—all those things to me add up to a decent chance that this is a 2-td margin of victory. Looking at it from the other side of the coin, I’m not putting a red cent on a mediocre-at-best Beavs team on the road against the Cougs without a decent spread.
From what I can see, only 1 book opened at -15.5 'Circa' (They are always the 1st Book to post lines in Vegas) and that lasted for only 14-mins and they moved down to -13.5. 'Circa' is currently at -11. Most books in Vegas & Offshore Consensus Line opener was at -12.5. They are down to -10.5 as of today.
I bet we'll see a lot of OSU fans coming up for the game. Not surprised if they've sold out their allotment.
WSU should absolutely win this game. A home game, against a poopy-butt, stinky team, with bowl eligibility on the line.
Whether WSU wins by 1 or 101, UW will smoke us in the AC like they always do. They’ll score the first 21 points and put it away early.
Pay no attention to Anus Boy, he’s just seeking out attention
You’re apparently paying attention, hypocrite. If you’d like some in-person attention, DM me.
If you wish to Ignore a poster, click on their actual User Name on the left. You'll find the ignore button.
Thanks, I figured that one out. I’m looking for the direct message function, if it exists.
Too many logical fallacies here to unpack, so I'll just ask: you understand Jeff Sagarin takes all of this under consideration, correct? And that he has their schedule being stronger than ours? Forgive me for not adopting a homer Internet poster's spur-of-the-moment, non-statistical power rankings over his. All due respect, I recommend you do the same or at a minimum drop any attempts to convince the Internet your nonscientific personal approach is superior.
He's here for a month pointing out that WSU shouldn't lose, but could lose OSU ad then absolutely lose to his uw team. If you enter his handle into a google search...you'll find out he's an anus boy.
I’m not trying to convince you of anything. You don’t mean anything. I respect my opinion and observations more than Jeff Sagarin’s and certainly more than some argumentative dork named Chip Douglas‘. The Beavers suck and their patsy schedule is the only reason their record is what it is. My opinion. I don’t value yours.
He's a worthy candidate for the ignore button--childish, crude posts, threatening people, wanting to flex and show how tough he is via DM's, etc. My first inclination was to say he's a frat boy, but even frat boys are more mature than he is. Maybe high school boy?
I’m not sure they smoke us this year but I don’t expect us to win. Defense is playing better and UW offense struggling. Think you’ll see a 27-21 kind of game.
Think mommy's basement or an older deranged dude like the character from The Fan.
You are absolutely fascinating. You belong in a museum.
