Seems like so far, fatalities are almost exactly what they said they would be. I think it was Dr. Birx who put out a prediction of 100,000 or so deaths with social distancing measures in place. We are in the low 80,000s now and are not done counting.
West coast politics will certainly kill "attended" fall and spring sports.
- Thread starter Cougsocal
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I guess but I didn’t see any predictions from authoritative sources that were too far from that. As a matter of fact the U of W projections that once had considerable credibility at the White House initially predicted only 60,000 deaths. They changed it and it now predicts something like 140,000. All the predictions have very large uncertainty bands though.
It the London model that predicted 1M+ US deaths (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...o-reopening-country/5e83736988e0fa101a757059/). We are a loooooong way from that.
So which model are we to believe? And why?
You’re right, this isn’t partisan at all:
“Republican Governors Are Kicking The Butts Of Democratic Governors On Covid-19 Response”
The title lays bare the authors intentions. As I stated before it’s way too premature to assess and compare responses by different states. Clearly it’s a hit piece and an amateurish one at that. There are way too many variables that the author has failed to account for, a handful of which have already been pointed out by myself and others in previous posts.
This serves as an example of confirmation bias and self deception or willful ignorance of data analysis on the authors part.
Maybe I am misreading the London study but it seems to project the number of deaths through the end of the pandemic. They define that as where 81% of the population has gotten the virus over about 15 months. In that respect it differs from many other studies that only project out to August. The London study is not claiming we would have 1 million deaths at this point in the pandemic. In fact I didn’t find any sort of month by month projection. So comparing their projection to the U of W projection or our current death count is kind of an apples and oranges comparison. Have to wait until the pandemic runs its course to see if London was right. Hopefully we have a vaccine before that and never get to know.
Truth is we won’t know for years what was the best response . Even then people will bend the numbers .
There are credible sources saying that it's not going to stop until 70% of all Americans get this if they don't discover something to slow it. An overly optimistic death rate of 1% puts total deaths at 2.2 million. Hopefully it's been here earlier than thought and more have had it than previously thought.
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I think it was the Oxford model that said 2.2 million if we did nothing. The UW model has been up, down, and up again. I think at one point they were around 180K, they got as low as 60K when everything shut down, and now they’re climbing again.
I don’t think your 1% death rate is overly optimistic. I think when it’s all said and done, and they make their final estimates of the number of total cases, it’ll be closer to 0.5%.
Actually the 1% death rate wasn’t mine. Came from someone responding to me. The 2.2 million deaths or 1.1 mil with mitigation in the British study assumed 81% of the population gets the disease so is a death rate of 0.7% or 0.35% with mitigation. Probably about right but only time will tell.
Inslee's snitch list isn't hard to find online.
If the population of EW is 20% of WA, the percentage of EW businesses getting snitched on is WAY under that.
Mostly service industries on the west side turning in their competitors, neighborhood Karens turning in dog walkers, dog groomers, the neighbors landscaper.
Tracy Ford of FSP got snitched on.
About 25% of the time the snitch gave their own name (usually female)
(Mayor of Mukilteo used the snitch website to turn in a dog groomer - why didn't she call them as part of her job?)
I only looked at the local reports, but was amused by how many were people ratting on their competitors, and how many were reporting on things that were actually OK.
no we are not. Those #'s are highly disputed. Deaths from pneumonia and heart disease in a positive Covid positive patient shouldn't be considered a Covid death.
I admitted it was partisan. But it isn't a hit piece. It is a reasonable conclusion after looking at the numbers. Red State governors are not living in fear and are not committed to crippling the economy.
That may be partisan, but it isn't a hit piece. It's a fair conclusion.
Spokane County petitioned for an exemption to move into phase 2. Inslee said he'd "look at" the request but doesn't expect to have anything for larger counties for a "couple of weeks". 4 people (4!) are being hospitalized for Covid in all of Spokane County. Inslee ought to be donating his entire salary as he obviously doesn't give 2 shyts about money and his constituents ability to make a living.
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/may/12/spokane-county-commission-votes-to-ask-state-to-im/
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/may/12/spokane-county-commission-votes-to-ask-state-to-im/
Significant variables like population density and testing capacity are overlooked. New York, Jersey, and Connecticut are heavily populated and a lot of testing was done there. South Dakota...not so much. Texas, Florida, and Michigan are in between.
Rather than cherry picking blue/red, I’d be curious to see an analysis that included the relevant demographics.
Then its also fair to say that many of those hypothetical suicides suggested by the "cure is worse than the disease" crowd are not due to Covid-related economic hardships or social distancing rules but from other underlying depression or mental health issues.
Again, it fails to take into account what factors/variables contribute to what is essentially raw data. One could conclude it is reasonable only if you lack depth of understanding and engage in self deception or willful ignorance or outright dishonesty.
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Since I live in South Dakota, I'll pass along some observations that may help give some perspective from a red state. First, our COVID #s are increasing as expected. More testing is being done, especially after the occurrence of outbreaks in a couple of meat processing facilities, which have been responsible for more than a third of all cases statewide. I live in the 3rd largest city in South Dakota....still only about 30,000 residents. That shows you the general lack of population and population density within the state's borders. That has certainly played a role in the data and how our governor has responded. There has been no statewide stay-at-home order, but local jurisdictions have enforced ordinances that resemble mandates issued in other states. In our community, non-essential businesses that could not accommodate recommended social distancing measures (i.e., maintain 6-foot distances between people, less than 10 customers at a time, etc.) were shut down. Restaurants offered take out only. Salons and gyms closed temporarily. Some longtime local businesses have folded up for good. Only now are some of businesses re-opening with strict measures in place. In short, we haven't had a lockdown ordered by the governor, but it feels like one. It's not the wild, wild west out here as some people on the two coasts often think. The governor is relying on people's common sense and expectation that the public will do the right thing in social distancing and imposing self-quarantines if they don't feel well. It seems to be working but there is always the possibility that COVID ramps up. In that case, I would expect the governor to be responsive as needed.
Glad Cougar
You know that saying, “common sense isn’t common”? I live in a small town that is fairly liberal and commute to work in a larger small town that is much more conservative. Not to over generalize and it occurs in both towns but where I work I see far fewer people engaging in “common sense” behavior than I do where I live. I was at the grocery store in the town where I work the other day and witnessed 2 unrelated people without masks coughing repeatedly inside the grocery store. This is far from the first time I have witnessed people engaging in anything remotely resembling “common sense” behavior.
My evidence may be anecdotal only but I don’t have a lot of faith in public health models that rely on people doing the “right thing” using “common sense” voluntarily.
What's funny to me is Woodward took some flack for misunderstanding that the no new cases for three weeks thing only applied to counties with population of 75,000 or less. "We won't have standards for a few weeks" is so much better....
Which is why it has been a combination of enforced measures at the local level and an appeal to the public for common sense & individual responsibility. Nobody will ever be able to enforce 100% compliance. Even in states with stay-at home orders, you obviously have people doing the wrong thing. In South Dakota, there are only a handful of communities with a population density that I would consider to be conducive to a general community spread of COVID. It never made sense to me for the entire state to be shut down by order of the governor when we have entire counties with zero cases and less than 2,000 residents. To this point, she has agreed.
Glad Cougar
In hindsight it may not make as much sense to have shut down entire states but we (hopefully) know a bit more now. When this first started we were really facing the unknown and it was perfectly reasonable to err on the side of caution.
I can’t help but feel that we are now all part of a huge experiment run by a number of competing interests many of which lack credible credentials and have questionable motivations.
This might be the catalyst that flips Spokane from blue back to red. We'll see in November.
Flips from blue to red ??? I think if the most repugnant human being in existence won in Spokane with an R in front of his name, then the county is already pretty red.
Spokane County
91% Reporting
Tweet
R D. Trump 49.9% 103,846
D H. Clinton 41.6% 86,590
L G. Johnson 5.7% 11,758
G J. Stein 1.7% 3,569
C D. Castle 0.9% 1,807
S A. Kennedy 0.1% 302
P G. La Riva 0.1% 209
Ah yes, Inslee just put a spending and hiring freeze on all government agencies. Surprisingly just a day after announcing the training of 1100+ people to be "Covid Tracers"...Lol. Bend over Washington, new and higher taxes are coming your way!!!
Yeah, I don't know what the right answer is even with the benefit of hindsight. As much as I don't always like people on the east and west coasts claiming to know what's best for South Dakota, I'm not in a position to judge what Washington, Oregon, California, NY, etc...should be doing either. The only thing I can really do and control is acting responsibly and unselfishly....and even that is too often a challenge.
Glad Cougar
President of the state senate is from Spokane and a Democrat (Andy Billig) and did not face a GOP candidate in the general election in 2016.
His predecessor is Lisa Brown (also D) was appointed by Inslee as Secretary of Commerce and just appointed by Inslee as the head of the "Safe Work And Economic Recovery Group"
Well, Pelosi just promised $3 trillion, so best get to spending it. Heaven forbid we have the nurses who have been laid off because of the lack of a surge get trained to do this...
Not saying there aren’t individual precincts and districts within Spokane County that are blue. But the dominant party in the county is Republican. Hell, even Mississippi has some blue districts.
Oh, that’s perhaps true. I haven’t been to Spokane for a few years but from what I remember, as long as pot dispensaries and liquor stores are considered essential businesses, there won’t be a great deal of pushback from most of the inner city precincts. They will remain blue. Might even get bluer.
Spokane City is blue, Spokane Valley is very red, outer burbs are purplish with a red tinge, is what I remember, but I've been gone a long time. So yes, the county is red (just), but the city is blue. Like a lot of places
Spokane will be red by the time this is all over. It's more of a purple shade than anything as of the last election. Beggs won by approx 800 votes, Woodward won by about the same margin.
If social media is any indication, I'm halfway surprised city council people don't have folks with pitchforks and torches in front of their homes every day since this thing started.
Burke will get bounced for anyone who can walk and chew gum at the same time.
Wendle or Poole will defeat Wilkerson (appointee). Both built big name recognition swinging for spots slightly above their fighting weight last election.
Mumm's spot in NW Spokane is the swing seat.
County Commissioners may not even have any opponents - decidedly conservative.
And after you recalculate that number with the understanding that approximately 80% of those fatalities were people suffering from pre-existing conditions (often times with multiple comorbidities), there's a strong case that we should have quarantined those at risk and those who work with or are around those at risk, not the general population.
I’m not arguing that particular point, at least in theory, There are a number of things we could have done differently that might have been equally or more effective than what we did. We could have tried to quarantine those 60 and over for instance but it would have had to be voluntary and therefore probably wouldn't have worked. US residents regardless of age don’t seem to be that good at following suggested measures preserve their health. It took decades and billions of dollars to finally convince a working majority of the population that smoking is bad for you, just as an example.
