West coast politics will certainly kill "attended" fall and spring sports.

[Cougsocal]

West Coast governors, claiming science for their slow return to normalcy, are really afraid of pulling the trigger, fearing a political backlash. COVID-19 is a crap sandwich, many have and will die as a result. Because of its infection rate, and because it frequently is transmitted by those who are asymptomatic, it will not go away until we arrive at herd immunity levels, or an effective vaccine is developed and billions of people are immunized. What are the chances of the latter in the immediate future? To date, how many effective corona virus vaccines are there? What effective and proven treatments are there for the common cold, a series of corona viruses? None!

Future death from this disease is pretty much inevitable, if you or I are among the unlucky few who a overly susceptible to the virus our number is up, the only question is whether it is sooner or latter. Sweden scientists realized this, and because of a strong universal medical system, they didn't have our need to "flatten the curve" initially, and went straight into the developing herd immunity process by only implementing only modest social distancing measures. Without any meaningful lock down, to date, about 3300 people in Sweden have past away, a horrible number, particularly if it includes your loved ones, but they are approaching the half way point towards herd immunity, already.

On the West Coast, quick action was successful in flattening the curve, and we did not have to suffer what happened to the Northeast. Now what? The medical system is about as ready as it will be for this pandemic. A slow to return to normalcy will only slow the attainment of herd immunity, while utterly crushing the economy and peoples lives, financially, in the process. Delaying when those overly susceptible to virus from being infected by months maybe a year or two, might save a few, as symptom management measures improve, but few on respirators survive, anyway. Those saved by delay will be small compared to harm caused by a deep recession or depression resulting from a too slow return to normalcy.

It is time to get back to normal in a safe and sane way. It is called good hygiene, self isolation if you have a respiratory infection of any type, and wearing a mask. Let us decide for ourselves if we want to attend events with crowds, and how much we want to self isolate. If you want to continue to hole up in a bunker, that fine, but others willing to assume the risk, should be allowed to. We will be the people developing herd immunity for society. I know that I may die. I have considered that risk, am willing to take it.

Sadly, our nanny governors will not allow this, simply for fear of political ramification, not science.

 

[CougPatrol]

I’ve worked in the medical/dental space my entire career. I, of course, am not an expert, but I know who the unbiased experts are. This group, led by the Stanford epidemiology heads, are among the best in the world. I’ve provided a link to the full abstract, but here’s the conclusion.

“People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic, and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1.full.pdf

 

[sylean]

not an expert either except I am somewhat close to the situation.. there are ongoing layoffs/furloughs or whatever euphemism you want to use in the Spokane area of health care workers, because the hospitals are empty...there was never a surge here at all...I suspect this is true in most areas in the country.

NYC is a case unto itself. even in mid march, officials there were encouraging large events, specifically the Chinese New Year. subways were not shut down. and Cuomo decided to send covid positive patients back to the nursing homes and nursing homes are where the predominant damage has been done, sadly, but not unexpectedly.

I don't want to make this political either but the numbers are all dropping, except where the officials go back and add unconfirmed, untested dead patients to the list of covid victims, without any testing, just assumptions..

I wonder what the death toll between March 15 to May 1st is from strokes, heart attacks, diabetic shock, etc. could it be that the total number of deaths is within our usual range as a country, with some leeway?

FTR, I am in a high risk group.. we all should protect ourselves as we see fit which is why I have worn a mask for many weeks and do careful handwashing...

the risks are ours to take.

I just can't see Nike sitting by and letting college football be shut down for this. I know its probably all about liabilities.

 

[CougEd]

Yeah. Hate to get political, but this is inherently, and very heavily, political. I constantly see people give platitudes about this "not being a partisan issue" and then spewing partisan talking points.

Generally:

- It has been obvious since March that Dem governors know they can blame economic problems on the federal government, and they will be viewed positively if they are "saving lives," even if their own decisions to keep things locked down are contributing to the economic tumult. This has been clear since the first Cuomo press conference, if not already obvious just from looking at incentives at play. There also are political incentives at the national level--whether or not those are driving particular decisions, the incentives are obvious--to have the economy as bad as possible through early November.

- "Flattening the curve" was pitched originally as shutting things down for a short period to not have the health care system be overwhelmed. It has morphed into an indefinite lockdown in which anyone who would want to open things up for economic reasons is positioned as "focused on greed" and "willing to kill people."

(I've seen that here in Texas, where those exact assertions are being made despite the governor's plan being measured and designed to be responsive to infection rates. The governor noted, accurately, that opening things up by definition will lead to more cases than if things were locked down, and the result from Newsweek and the like were as follows: https://www.newsweek.com/texas-gove..._ewpO49ER_gRxdKrsva0MIavdiuI4AQe71plYfNzi4vY4).

Uh, yeah ... if you open things up, there will be more cases than if everyone was locked inside. To suggest otherwise is ridiculous, and that isn't the pertinent question. Flattening the curve doesn't necessarily mean a decrease in total infections, especially given all the questions about the timing and efficacy of a vaccine. It means avoiding peaks that overwhelm our health care system. The flip side, asking whether it's reasonable to destroy the economy for months or years, or to consider the consequences of that, is ignored. This is despite economic-driven misery also leading to numerous negative health impacts and terrible things families will have to deal with.

I don't mean to minimize the health risks or the impact this has had on anyone. It has been terrible. It just sucks to have the handling of this become so political.

To be honest I couldn't get past "early November". You and others are out to lunch if you believe dems want an epidemic and a bad economy to get rid of Trump. There is a reason we are in a Civil War in this country and most don't even know it. I will be the first to tell you I hate Trump. I hate anyone who lies even when there is no reason to lie, and claims he never said that. But my dislike for him would never come at this expense. Ever. I prefer beat the guy with a dynamic candidate.

My college roomie was retired at age 55, had great income coming in from his commercial buildings. In January probably worth more than 25 million. His mall that he owns will be 80% vacant by months end, he owns a great building in down town Seattle, the tenant is a very famous chef. I am not certain he is "retired" any longer. In 09 a certain population was hit by the depression, but this is everyone. There are very few people who aren't affected by this. You think I want to see and not empathetic to a poster on this board through no fault of his own lost his job? You think as liberal as I am like to see my 401k and investments take a hit?

You may think Inslee is out of line, I get that. But his motives aren't political. I sat down with two friends last friday. One is a scientist, runs a highly successful BioTech. The other is a CEO of a consumer product. The Biotech person knows Inslee, supports him, and used his knowledge of diseases to make his point of going slow. The other CEO didn't vote for Trump, is a centrist, thinks Trump is an idiot and pledged 100k to start with to defeat Inslee. He knows enough people statewide that he can raise 5 million. so to think Inslee is doing it to get Trump out of office is flat out insane (there will be political backlash for Inslee). You can make the argument it is misguided, that he should have opened things up earlier, or that he should be phasing in certain segments earlier, and I am not sure I would disagree with you.

 

[chugspig]

I am weary of getting Covid19 and more scared of my folks or their friends getting it. I’m also scared of having 20% of people around me have no work and no way to realistically pay for their possessions that make life worth living.

I’m not sure it’s been weighed yet how we gauge a life lost to economic issues as compared to a virus. And we are quickly approaching a time where some people will see more risk in losing their way lives as opposed to a .5% chance of dying.

I dont envy anyone who has to make those decisions at any level.

 

[COCoug]

Its WAY too soon to be analyzing which state or country perfectly balanced their COVID19 response between public health and economic health. It is like watching the first 6 plays of a football game, turning off the TV and writing the post-game summary. Its going to take years to understand the epidemiology, and every day we are seeing new manifestations of the infection, including very serious syndromes in children. The available data now suggests that COVID19 deaths are far underreported as we start to understand the cardiovascular, neurologic and clotting disorders that are linked to it. In retrospect, it may be judged that some states were overly cautious, but in the absence of data that is probably smart. Of course it goes without saying that Governors, Mayors, college administrators, and businessmen are making all of these decisions, because of the leadership vacuum of the president. You can criticize them if you want, but for better or for worse, Democrat or Republican, they are actually taking responsibility and leading. Nobody even considers that the federal government should be making this policy, given the utterly incoherent course of the past months, with the president literally contradicting himself sometimes within hours of any given statement.

Specific to WSU, if you are bring 38,000 people together in a county that has a max of 8 ICU beds (with maybe 4 of them empty at any one time) you better really understand this virus and all of the risks, because you have no margin for error.

 

[dgibbons]

Flattening the curve was essentially taking the line graph with the big spike of deaths and cases and turning it 90 degrees to the right. Maybe that would result in fewer cases, but really it was spreading it out over a longer time to prevent the healthcare system getting overwhelmed. The end game was always a vaccine, or treatment or whatever. Locking yourself in your house keeps you isolated but doesn’t cure anything.

One thing hopefully has become clear to everyone is the “science” coming from the “experts” is opinion, not certainty. Experts miss and miss big all the time, especially dealing with something novel. Science is excruciatingly slow.

What’s scary is one of the IHME doctors that Inslee is listening to said two weeks ago that the daily new case rate would have to dip to one per one million of population to relax social distancing. That equates to 8 new cases per day in Washington and if you extrapolate to the nation, 330 new cases per day. Washington has about 200 new cases per day, the country about 30,000. I’m sure this doctor is a very smart guy, highly educated, done wonderful things in science, etc. But it seems like he wasn’t smart enough to realize that his conclusion was impossible to achieve, and he was advising a cure that was worse than the disease.

 

[AncientCoug]

FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting article based on data from a company that tracks GPS enabled cell phones. Their data shows that more than 20% of people in a sample of southern red states were already staying home by the first week of March. That’s well before any state had issued stay at home orders. It went to almost 50 percent in those states by the first week in April. Some of those states still don’t have stay at home orders of any sort and most others didn’t issue one until late March or early April.

So, maybe it’s not just politicians driving this. Maybe the people are just as responsible for driving the economic slowdown. If that’s true, it means the politicians actually can’t just turn the economy back on. I don’t know how many stores, restaurants, fairs, concerts, theme parks, sports venues and hotels can stay in business if 20 to 50 percent of their customers decide to just stay home.

 

[dgibbons]

not an expert either except I am somewhat close to the situation.. there are ongoing layoffs/furloughs or whatever euphemism you want to use in the Spokane area of health care workers, because the hospitals are empty...there was never a surge here at all...I suspect this is true in most areas in the country.

NYC is a case unto itself. even in mid march, officials there were encouraging large events, specifically the Chinese New Year. subways were not shut down. and Cuomo decided to send covid positive patients back to the nursing homes and nursing homes are where the predominant damage has been done, sadly, but not unexpectedly.

I don't want to make this political either but the numbers are all dropping, except where the officials go back and add unconfirmed, untested dead patients to the list of covid victims, without any testing, just assumptions..

I wonder what the death toll between March 15 to May 1st is from strokes, heart attacks, diabetic shock, etc. could it be that the total number of deaths is within our usual range as a country, with some leeway?

FTR, I am in a high risk group.. we all should protect ourselves as we see fit which is why I have worn a mask for many weeks and do careful handwashing...

the risks are ours to take.

I just can't see Nike sitting by and letting college football be shut down for this. I know its probably all about liabilities.

My recollection is Cuomo and De Blasio were fighting about who had the authority to shutdown the city. In the meantime, the St. Patrick’s day parade was canceled but all the bars and restaurants remained open, and that was well after the outbreak in New Rochelle.

 

[dgibbons]

To be honest I couldn't get past "early November". You and others are out to lunch if you believe dems want an epidemic and a bad economy to get rid of Trump. There is a reason we are in a Civil War in this country and most don't even know it. I will be the first to tell you I hate Trump. I hate anyone who lies even when there is no reason to lie, and claims he never said that. But my dislike for him would never come at this expense. Ever. I prefer beat the guy with a dynamic candidate.

My college roomie was retired at age 55, had great income coming in from his commercial buildings. In January probably worth more than 25 million. His mall that he owns will be 80% vacant by months end, he owns a great building in down town Seattle, the tenant is a very famous chef. I am not certain he is "retired" any longer. In 09 a certain population was hit by the depression, but this is everyone. There are very few people who aren't affected by this. You think I want to see and not empathetic to a poster on this board through no fault of his own lost his job? You think as liberal as I am like to see my 401k and investments take a hit?

You may think Inslee is out of line, I get that. But his motives aren't political. I sat down with two friends last friday. One is a scientist, runs a highly successful BioTech. The other is a CEO of a consumer product. The Biotech person knows Inslee, supports him, and used his knowledge of diseases to make his point of going slow. The other CEO didn't vote for Trump, is a centrist, thinks Trump is an idiot and pledged 100k to start with to defeat Inslee. He knows enough people statewide that he can raise 5 million. so to think Inslee is doing it to get Trump out of office is flat out insane (there will be political backlash for Inslee). You can make the argument it is misguided, that he should have opened things up earlier, or that he should be phasing in certain segments earlier, and I am not sure I would disagree with you.

Does this mean you hate yourself?

 

[dgibbons]

You appear to have poor reading comprehension, exacerbated by an apparent refusal to read the post in its entirety. There is significantly more nuance presented, as well as much more context and information. If you won't read anything to understand opinions that may differ from your own, you'll have a hard time learning anything or considering potential adjustments to your positions.

You mean your post was not directed specifically at Ed? You crafty trickster.

I will say, issues only matter in battleground states. Washington, Oregon and California are blue, end of story. It doesn’t matter if Biden is a walking corpse that will be pronounced dead the day after they election. The criticism focused on Gretchen Whitmer is no accident, regardless of whether it was deserved. She was considered a front runner for Biden’s running mate in March.

 

[dgibbons]

Its WAY too soon to be analyzing which state or country perfectly balanced their COVID19 response between public health and economic health. It is like watching the first 6 plays of a football game, turning off the TV and writing the post-game summary. Its going to take years to understand the epidemiology, and every day we are seeing new manifestations of the infection, including very serious syndromes in children. The available data now suggests that COVID19 deaths are far underreported as we start to understand the cardiovascular, neurologic and clotting disorders that are linked to it. In retrospect, it may be judged that some states were overly cautious, but in the absence of data that is probably smart. Of course it goes without saying that Governors, Mayors, college administrators, and businessmen are making all of these decisions, because of the leadership vacuum of the president. You can criticize them if you want, but for better or for worse, Democrat or Republican, they are actually taking responsibility and leading. Nobody even considers that the federal government should be making this policy, given the utterly incoherent course of the past months, with the president literally contradicting himself sometimes within hours of any given statement.

Specific to WSU, if you are bring 38,000 people together in a county that has a max of 8 ICU beds (with maybe 4 of them empty at any one time) you better really understand this virus and all of the risks, because you have no margin for error.

Just wanted to point out that there have been zero hospitalizations in Whitman county. Obviously you cannot conclude anything definitive from that, but it is relevant.

 

[dgibbons]

FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting article based on data from a company that tracks GPS enabled cell phones. Their data shows that more than 20% of people in a sample of southern red states were already staying home by the first week of March. That’s well before any state had issued stay at home orders. It went to almost 50 percent in those states by the first week in April. Some of those states still don’t have stay at home orders of any sort and most others didn’t issue one until late March or early April.

So, maybe it’s not just politicians driving this. Maybe the people are just as responsible for driving the economic slowdown. If that’s true, it means the politicians actually can’t just turn the economy back on. I don’t know how many stores, restaurants, fairs, concerts, theme parks, sports venues and hotels can stay in business if 20 to 50 percent of their customers decide to just stay home.

Undoubtedly. Before the lockdown became effective in Washington most retailers were closing down. The lack of foot traffic did not justify paying a single person minimum wage to man the cash register.

 

[AncientCoug]

Sadly, our nanny governors will allow this, simply for fear of political ramification, not science.

it’s worth keeping in mind that the NCAA, NBA and MLB shutdown sports well before there was any government directive that compelled them to do so. So even if all the governors got together and decided large gatherings at sports venues are ok, those organizations would have have a tough decision to make. The NCAA has already said two things that don’t make me very optimistic. One is that they will wait to see what the professional leagues do before making their decision. The other is that there will be no football at schools that elect to not have on campus classes. So a lot of moving parts have to line up perfectly and quickly for the 2020 college football season to happen.

 

[Observer11]

not an expert either except I am somewhat close to the situation.. there are ongoing layoffs/furloughs or whatever euphemism you want to use in the Spokane area of health care workers, because the hospitals are empty...there was never a surge here at all...I suspect this is true in most areas in the country.

NYC is a case unto itself. even in mid march, officials there were encouraging large events, specifically the Chinese New Year. subways were not shut down. and Cuomo decided to send covid positive patients back to the nursing homes and nursing homes are where the predominant damage has been done, sadly, but not unexpectedly.

I don't want to make this political either but the numbers are all dropping, except where the officials go back and add unconfirmed, untested dead patients to the list of covid victims, without any testing, just assumptions..

I wonder what the death toll between March 15 to May 1st is from strokes, heart attacks, diabetic shock, etc. could it be that the total number of deaths is within our usual range as a country, with some leeway?

FTR, I am in a high risk group.. we all should protect ourselves as we see fit which is why I have worn a mask for many weeks and do careful handwashing...

the risks are ours to take.

I just can't see Nike sitting by and letting college football be shut down for this. I know its probably all about liabilities.

Spokane and E Washington are getting phucked in this debacle.

Absolutely reamed in the sphincter.

There will be civil unrest quite soon if Inslee doesn’t face up to the realities of the numbers.

 

[AncientCoug]

Don’t know if the NCAA will follow MLBs lead but they might. The following is from Sports Illustrated.

While no plans have been finalized, Major League Baseball is working toward finishing up its proposal to the players' union for when to start the 2020 season. According to a report from The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, the proposal will be discussed by team owners on Monday and presented to the players' union on Tuesday.

The regular season would begin in early July and consist of approximately 80 games, per Rosenthal. Teams would play regionalized schedules, only facing other teams in their own division, or the corresponding division in the other league. For example, American League West teams would only face other AL West teams and National League West teams. Schedules would feature more matchups between teams that are in the same division.

Games would be played in as many home cities as possible. Teams that are not able to play at home would have to relocate, either to their spring training sites or other major-league parks in different cities, Rosenthal reports. A second "spring" training would take place either in teams' home parks, or in Arizona or Florida.

Games will be played without fans, at least initially. A potentially contentious point of this proposal is the players being asked to take a further pay cut to help offset the loss of revenue that comes with having no fans in attendance, according to Rosenthal. The players agreed in March to take prorated salaries for 2020, but that only covers the regular season. Playoff bonuses are based on gate receipts, a payment structure that would have to be altered should fans remain out of the picture for the entirety of the season

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

One thing hopefully has become clear to everyone is the “science” coming from the “experts” is opinion, not certainty. Experts miss and miss big all the time, especially dealing with something novel. Science is excruciatingly slow.

What’s scary is one of the IHME doctors that Inslee is listening to said two weeks ago that the daily new case rate would have to dip to one per one million of population to relax social distancing. That equates to 8 new cases per day in Washington and if you extrapolate to the nation, 330 new cases per day. Washington has about 200 new cases per day, the country about 30,000. I’m sure this doctor is a very smart guy, highly educated, done wonderful things in science, etc. But it seems like he wasn’t smart enough to realize that his conclusion was impossible to achieve, and he was advising a cure that was worse than the disease.

The only certainty is that this is NOT happening.

I see/hear/experience daily "I trust Gov Inslee because he listens to science..." or similar refrains. People who are afraid are incapable of rational thought and often look to someone else to make their decisions. Unfortunately, its politicians and scientists speaking from a position of authority while not having enough information to make long term decisions. Shutting anything down in September at this time is assinine.

 

[95coug]

West Coast governors, claiming science for their slow return to normalcy, are really afraid of pulling the trigger, fearing a political backlash. COVID-19 is a crap sandwich, many have and will die as a result. Because of its infection rate, and because it frequently is transmitted by those who are asymptomatic, it will not go away until we arrive at herd immunity levels, or an effective vaccine is developed and billions of people are immunized. What are the chances of the latter in the immediate future? To date, how many effective corona virus vaccines are there? What effective and proven treatments are there for the common cold, a series of corona viruses? None!

Future death from this disease is pretty much inevitable, if you or I are among the unlucky few who a overly susceptible to the virus our number is up, the only question is whether it is sooner or latter. Sweden scientists realized this, and because of a strong universal medical system, they didn't have our need to "flatten the curve" initially, and went straight into the developing herd immunity process by only implementing only modest social distancing measures. Without any meaningful lock down, to date, about 3300 people in Sweden have past away, a horrible number, particularly if it includes your loved ones, but they are approaching the half way point towards herd immunity, already.

On the West Coast, quick action was successful in flattening the curve, and we did not have to suffer what happened to the Northeast. Now what? The medical system is about as ready as it will be for this pandemic. A slow to return to normalcy will only slow the attainment of herd immunity, while utterly crushing the economy and peoples lives, financially, in the process. Delaying when those overly susceptible to virus from being infected by months maybe a year or two, might save a few, as symptom management measures improve, but not few on respirators survive, anyway. Those saved by delay will be small compared to harm caused by a deep recession or depression resulting from a too slow return to normalcy.

It is time to get back to normal in a safe and sane way. It is called good hygiene, self isolation if you have a respiratory infection of any type, and wearing a mask. Let us decide for ourselves if we want to attend events with crowds, and how much we want to self isolate. If you want to continue to hole up in a bunker, that fine, but others willing to assume the risk, should be allowed to. We will be the people developing herd immunity for society. I know that I may die. I have considered that risk, am willing to take it.

Sadly, our nanny governors will allow this, simply for fear of political ramification, not science.

The concept behind “flattening the curve” still applies in reopening. If it happens too fast, it creates a new surge and overwhelms the hospitals. That probably happens even sooner now, since the supply chain for PPE and medical supplies has been hit by the first wave.

I’m not convinced the full shutdown is necessary, but letting large groups assemble doesn’t seem like a great idea. I’m also not convinced that there will ever be a vaccine for it - at least not one that’s any more effective than the flu vaccine, which is 50-60% in a good year. I think a big part of the problem is how widely it’s still being reported that this thing has a 5-7% mortality rate. That’s a severe overstatement.

Once testing is ramped up, it’ll be easier to get a clear picture of how widespread this thing in, and to respond more rapidly when it’s detected. It seems that testing is finally starting to pick up a bit. It’s nowhere near where it needs to be, but as long as it continues improving without political interference we should be in reasonable shape by the end of summer.

 

[AncientCoug]

The concept behind “flattening the curve” still applies in reopening. If it happens too fast, it creates a new surge and overwhelms the hospitals. That probably happens even sooner now, since the supply chain for PPE and medical supplies has been hit by the first wave.

I’m not convinced the full shutdown is necessary, but letting large groups assemble doesn’t seem like a great idea. I’m also not convinced that there will ever be a vaccine for it - at least not one that’s any more effective than the flu vaccine, which is 50-60% in a good year. I think a big part of the problem is how widely it’s still being reported that this thing has a 5-7% mortality rate. That’s a severe overstatement.

Once testing is ramped up, it’ll be easier to get a clear picture of how widespread this thing in, and to respond more rapidly when it’s detected. It seems that testing is finally starting to pick up a bit. It’s nowhere near where it needs to be, but as long as it continues improving without political interference we should be in reasonable shape by the end of summer.

I really don’t see how most colleges even open up for on campus classes without solving the testing problem. If too many college presidents and regents decide against on campus classes they would quite likely kill football season as well.

The problem the university presidents face is daunting. Fall semester starts right around the start of flu season so there is certain to be many students exhibiting COVID like symptoms. In years past many, if not most, students with flu and cold symptoms stayed in their dorm room a few days and self medicated. And student health centers were still often near their limits. This year everyone with symptoms will want to be tested. The capacity to do that much testing does not currently exist on college campuses and it will be expensive. Who pays?

Further, some will no doubt test positive for COVID and what do you do then. Contact tracing? Sanitize every building that student has been in? There might be 100s of contacts and dozens of buildings involved for some students. Those are big jobs they are not currently set up to handle.

 

[Observer11]

Over my dead body that I'll ever submit to 'contact tracing' or 'forced isolation'.

You can mark that down in ink. At some point we the people need to quit acting like pussies and demand the actions match our lawfully given rights.

You want contact tracing? Fine - voluntary with consent. You want isolation - fine - with compensation for lost wages and income.

And you ask how all this is being paid for? It's pretty damned simple - with taxes. How are taxes derived? From the sweat of the people - unless the plan is to confiscate property and sell it to the highest foreign bidder. That's why getting back to work is just as important to the local, state and federal coffers as it is to the physical and mental well-being of the people.

 

[BSpike76]

FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting article based on data from a company that tracks GPS enabled cell phones. Their data shows that more than 20% of people in a sample of southern red states were already staying home by the first week of March. That’s well before any state had issued stay at home orders. It went to almost 50 percent in those states by the first week in April. Some of those states still don’t have stay at home orders of any sort and most others didn’t issue one until late March or early April.

So, maybe it’s not just politicians driving this. Maybe the people are just as responsible for driving the economic slowdown. If that’s true, it means the politicians actually can’t just turn the economy back on. I don’t know how many stores, restaurants, fairs, concerts, theme parks, sports venues and hotels can stay in business if 20 to 50 percent of their customers decide to just stay home.

Saw that article. Very interesting.

 

[COUGinNCW]

I am weary of getting Covid19 and more scared of my folks or their friends getting it. I’m also scared of having 20% of people around me have no work and no way to realistically pay for their possessions that make life worth living.

I’m not sure it’s been weighed yet how we gauge a life lost to economic issues as compared to a virus. And we are quickly approaching a time where some people will see more risk in losing their way lives as opposed to a .5% chance of dying.

I dont envy anyone who has to make those decisions at any level.

collateral damage-
A lost year of education- especially fir the kids that need school the most.
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/may/10/alarmingly-high-number-of-spokane-students-arent-e/

 

[AncientCoug]

Over my dead body that I'll ever submit to 'contact tracing' or 'forced isolation'.

You can mark that down in ink. At some point we the people need to quit acting like pussies and demand the actions match our lawfully given rights.

You want contact tracing? Fine - voluntary with consent. You want isolation - fine - with compensation for lost wages and income.

And you ask how all this is being paid for? It's pretty damned simple - with taxes. How are taxes derived? From the sweat of the people - unless the plan is to confiscate property and sell it to the highest foreign bidder. That's why getting back to work is just as important to the local, state and federal coffers as it is to the physical and mental well-being of the people.

Well good for you. Hope you are also willing to forgo hospitalization if you get sick.

 

[COUGinNCW]

it’s worth keeping in mind that the NCAA, NBA and MLB shutdown sports well before there was any government directive that compelled them to do so. So even if all the governors got together and decided large gatherings at sports venues are ok, those organizations would have have a tough decision to make. The NCAA has already said two things that don’t make me very optimistic. One is that they will wait to see what the professional leagues do before making their decision. The other is that there will be no football at schools that elect to not have on campus classes. So a lot of moving parts have to line up perfectly and quickly for the 2020 college football season to happen.

I see limited seating, maybe every other row, required masks, temperature screening to get in the games and expect to sign a waiver that you won’t blame/sue WSU, the Seahawks or whoever organized the event. Too much money at stake to not play this fall. I’ll then have to sneak a straw in to drink my alcohol in the stadium.

 

[Lollapalousa]

UFC crushes it last night. Those fights were amazing.

Break out the good stuff. Sports are back

 

[dgibbons]

Well good for you. Hope you are also willing to forgo hospitalization if you get sick.

Spokane has about 1100 hospital beds. Not sure on the ICU bed numbers, or what the surge capacity is for either category.

The hospitalization rate is 50.3 per 100,000. The link is not explicit, so I don’t know whether that means population or covid positives. Either way, we oughta be in good shape in Spokane.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...ronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview.html

 

[AncientCoug]

Spokane has about 1100 hospital beds. Not sure on the ICU bed numbers, or what the surge capacity is for either category.

The hospitalization rate is 50.3 per 100,000. The link is not explicit, so I don’t know whether that means population or covid positives. Either way, we oughta be in good shape in Spokane.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview.html

Yeah, I wasn’t so much talking about hospital beds as the general attitude reflected in Observers post. Seems to me that if you are unwilling in any way to participate in societal efforts to contain the virus or slow it’s spread, then you should also have no expectation that doctors and nurses will risk their lives to care for you. Or that society at large will pay for your care should it become necesssary.

 

[95coug]

Over my dead body that I'll ever submit to 'contact tracing' or 'forced isolation'.

You can mark that down in ink. At some point we the people need to quit acting like pussies and demand the actions match our lawfully given rights.

You want contact tracing? Fine - voluntary with consent. You want isolation - fine - with compensation for lost wages and income.

And you ask how all this is being paid for? It's pretty damned simple - with taxes. How are taxes derived? From the sweat of the people - unless the plan is to confiscate property and sell it to the highest foreign bidder. That's why getting back to work is just as important to the local, state and federal coffers as it is to the physical and mental well-being of the people.

Refusing to participate in contact tracing? So if you’re sick you’re not going to say where you’ve been and who you may have exposed? That’s right up there with the most selfish things I’ve heard.
Forced isolation isn’t a new idea, and the courts have repeatedly affirmed that it’s legal. Your constitutional rights end where they start to infringe on those of others...and that includes when you’re carrying disease.

And then there’s the contradiction. You want voluntary participation but mandatory compensation? Forget it. Neglecting the broad opportunities for fraud in that system, bottom line is that It’s nobody’s fault you got sick, so nobody should have to pay you. Especially if you’re not willing to do what’s being asked in the first place.

 

[dgibbons]

Refusing to participate in contact tracing? So if you’re sick you’re not going to say where you’ve been and who you may have exposed? That’s right up there with the most selfish things I’ve heard.
Forced isolation isn’t a new idea, and the courts have repeatedly affirmed that it’s legal. Your constitutional rights end where they start to infringe on those of others...and that includes when you’re carrying disease.

And then there’s the contradiction. You want voluntary participation but mandatory compensation? Forget it. Neglecting the broad opportunities for fraud in that system, bottom line is that It’s nobody’s fault you got sick, so nobody should have to pay you. Especially if you’re not willing to do what’s being asked in the first place.

Hard to blame people who are fed up with quarantine when the local hospitals barely saw any Covid cases and are laying off employees.

 

[95coug]

I see limited seating, maybe every other row, required masks, temperature screening to get in the games and expect to sign a waiver that you won’t blame/sue WSU, the Seahawks or whoever organized the event. Too much money at stake to not play this fall. I’ll then have to sneak a straw in to drink my alcohol in the stadium.

Every other row doesn’t thin the crowd enough. Needs to be every other row and - with the way they pack people in - about every 4th seat. So, six people per row, every other row. Ends up being somewhere around 5,000 people in the stands. You could ease the distancing a bit by allowing households to sit together, but it’s hard to make an equitable system for that. Oh, and no concessions.

Here’s a thought - students only. 5,000 per game, attendance by lottery. That way it’s limited to the people who are already in Pullman, and doesn’t spread it around the state. Eliminates issues with travel and controlling the RV lots (tailgating is NOT going to be allowed), and greatly reduces the lines at the gates. Just spread the students around the whole stadium. You get drawn on Monday or Tuesday, and to get in you either show a negative test result within 24 hours of kickoff (if rapid tests are available by then), evidence of immunity (whatever that is), or at the very least have a fever check at the gate.

The other option is that you face the fact that butts in seats are only a fraction of revenues, so they don’t matter. With most people forced to watch on TV, the broadcast revenues will be up enough that the broadcasters should be able to UO the payment to the schools to offset (partially) the loss of gate receipts.

I don’t know what it’s going to look like, but I don’t expect to be allowed to use my seats this fall. I do expect to get a message from the athletic department - probably by about July 1 - indicating that. I also expect that they’ll try to discourage people from getting refunds. They may offer to advance our season ticket payments to fall 2021. I’m sure they’ll also ask us if we’d like to donate what we’ve already paid ‘to assist COVID-19 response.’ Refunds will be the last and least supported option.

 

[95coug]

Hard to blame people who are fed up with quarantine when the local hospitals barely saw any Covid cases and are laying off employees.

That’s why the response needs to be more local. But it’s pretty certain you have more local cases than anyone knows about. And if you lift the lid, you’ll see a surge.
That said, even in Tri-Cities - which is supposedly one of the current state hot spots - there have not been more than 45 COVID patients in the local hospitals, and normal hospital traffic is down enough that treating them hasn’t seriously strained the system. But there’s still a severe shortage of testing, and limitations on PPE supplies, contrary to what some government sources are claiming.

 

[Observer11]

Well good for you. Hope you are also willing to forgo hospitalization if you get sick.

I pay handsomely for medical insurance. It's no skin off your teeth.

By your logic, if an uninsured motorist hits me, I can't call the tow truck or go to the body shop even though my policy has full coverage.

 

[Observer11]

Refusing to participate in contact tracing? So if you’re sick you’re not going to say where you’ve been and who you may have exposed? That’s right up there with the most selfish things I’ve heard.
Forced isolation isn’t a new idea, and the courts have repeatedly affirmed that it’s legal. Your constitutional rights end where they start to infringe on those of others...and that includes when you’re carrying disease.

And then there’s the contradiction. You want voluntary participation but mandatory compensation? Forget it. Neglecting the broad opportunities for fraud in that system, bottom line is that It’s nobody’s fault you got sick, so nobody should have to pay you. Especially if you’re not willing to do what’s being asked in the first place.

You're making things up like I don't wash my hands and walking around licking homeless people. I don't go to work or out or when I'm sick anyway - why would I start now? That's just rude.

We were asked to 'flatten the curve' in the first place. We did that. We washed our hands, we stayed hunkered down for a few weeks and the mortality rate is a gnat's ass of the general population.

The draconia measures were implemented on a small data set and extrapolated out of 350 Million people. Man up and adjust it to reality. The UW model has been proved incorrect over and over again.


You know what is selfish? Denying parents the opportunity to go back to work to provide food for their kids. For 1/10,000th % of the risk of death. Sorry. Not buying what's being shoveled out there. The math don't work.

You still fearful? Fine - stay home. Nobody is prying people out of their homes for force labor or employment. But most certainly, they aren't coming into my home or my property without a warrant and due process being fully executed as we are guaranteed by the rule of law.

 

[BSpike76]

I pay handsomely for medical insurance. It's no skin off your teeth.

By your logic, if an uninsured motorist hits me, I can't call the tow truck or go to the body shop even though my policy has full coverage.

A more apt analogy would be you bought car insurance and then would expect the insurance to pay when you get drunk and get in collision with a tree. You would then bitch about not getting justly compensated.

As I remember you’re, like some .1%er who makes money giving out advice. So you can sit in your McMansion and advise companies to crowd their worker bees to make more money for you and them. “Some of you will die, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take”.

You really wouldn’t have any skin in the game of reopening anyway. Money yes, but no skin.

 

[AncientCoug]

You're making things up like I don't wash my hands and walking around licking homeless people. I don't go to work or out or when I'm sick anyway - why would I start now? That's just rude.

We were asked to 'flatten the curve' in the first place. We did that. We washed our hands, we stayed hunkered down for a few weeks and the mortality rate is a gnat's ass of the general population.

The draconia measures were implemented on a small data set and extrapolated out of 350 Million people. Man up and adjust it to reality. The UW model has been proved incorrect over and over again.


You know what is selfish? Denying parents the opportunity to go back to work to provide food for their kids. For 1/10,000th % of the risk of death. Sorry. Not buying what's being shoveled out there. The math don't work.

You still fearful? Fine - stay home. Nobody is prying people out of their homes for force labor or employment. But most certainly, they aren't coming into my home or my property without a warrant and due process being fully executed as we are guaranteed by the rule of law.

Not sure I understand the relationship between contact tracing and licking homeless people but it’s not important. The job situation will not be resolved until a very large majority (say 90% plus) of people feel safe going back to stores, restaurants, theme parks, etc. We are probably at about 40 to 50 percent right now but getting the next 40% on board won’t be easy. And I gotta say that knowing you and others like you are out there doesn’t make me want to head to my favorite restaurants or the shopping mall or Disneyland anytime soon.

 

[dgibbons]

You're making things up like I don't wash my hands and walking around licking homeless people. I don't go to work or out or when I'm sick anyway - why would I start now? That's just rude.

We were asked to 'flatten the curve' in the first place. We did that. We washed our hands, we stayed hunkered down for a few weeks and the mortality rate is a gnat's ass of the general population.

The draconia measures were implemented on a small data set and extrapolated out of 350 Million people. Man up and adjust it to reality. The UW model has been proved incorrect over and over again.


You know what is selfish? Denying parents the opportunity to go back to work to provide food for their kids. For 1/10,000th % of the risk of death. Sorry. Not buying what's being shoveled out there. The math don't work.

You still fearful? Fine - stay home. Nobody is prying people out of their homes for force labor or employment. But most certainly, they aren't coming into my home or my property without a warrant and due process being fully executed as we are guaranteed by the rule of law.

That’s not fair to the homeless people. Just sayin.

 

[Observer11]

A more apt analogy would be you bought car insurance and then would expect the insurance to pay when you get drunk and get in collision with a tree. You would then bitch about not getting justly compensated.

As I remember you’re, like some .1%er who makes money giving out advice. So you can sit in your McMansion and advise companies to crowd their worker bees to make more money for you and them. “Some of you will die, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take”.

You really wouldn’t have any skin in the game of reopening anyway. Money yes, but no skin.

That's your analogy. It's not more apt. I don't drive around drunk. But if I'm hit by a drunk, I'm insured. In fact, I have been.

I've washed my hands since March 13 (prior actually) but that's what we were asked to do. And with that, risk assessment begins and there's better chance of getting a blow job from Sofia Vagara than dying of COVID in Spokane County.

If you live your life by the .001% chance of something happening or not, feel free to call those 99.999% who live life 'lucky' or whatever helps you sleep at night.

And go ahead and assume that everybody behaves like they run around peeing on people or sneezing in their face or whatever other abhorrent exception that is probably already covered under some law so that the rest of us can resume life as it should be lived - under the rights we have duly been endowed and protected by the laws that have been properly legislated.

 

[95coug]

That's your analogy. It's not more apt. I don't drive around drunk. But if I'm hit by a drunk, I'm insured. In fact, I have been.

I've washed my hands since March 13 (prior actually) but that's what we were asked to do. And with that, risk assessment begins and there's better chance of getting a blow job from Sofia Vagara than dying of COVID in Spokane County.

If you live your life by the .001% chance of something happening or not, feel free to call those 99.999% who live life 'lucky' or whatever helps you sleep at night.

And go ahead and assume that everybody behaves like they run around peeing on people or sneezing in their face or whatever other abhorrent exception that is probably already covered under some law so that the rest of us can resume life as it should be lived - under the rights we have duly been endowed and protected by the laws that have been properly legislated.

OK...some reality. I think the thing that has really whipped people into a frenzy over this is the things that are unknown. How contagious is it really? How deadly? What’s the really danger?
Between the government and the media, there’s a belief that you can catch it from someone talking or breathing in your vicinity. What are the chances? Is this hypothetical, or is it a real risk?
They also keep harping on the 5-7% mortality rate, which is a seriously flawed calculation and is wildly overestimated. If you use the assumptions they use for flu, it’s mortality rate is more like 0.5%. Still more than for flu (based on a low-end flu number that’s also an estimate) but not really that high.
Yes, it’s more dangerous for the elderly and for certain populations. Guess what...same applies to most bugs out there.
So, in the absence of knowledge, they’re pushing every wild theory about how bad this might be, and people are eating it up.
This thing is not smallpox or measles. Both are more contagious with a higher mortality. And we never shut down the country for either.


Also...I think you misunderstand contact tracing and isolation. Nobody would come into your house. Someone would most likely contact you by phone - or in the hospital - and ask you about contacts. And, most likely, if you were isolated you’d be sent home and told not to leave. You’re not getting locked in somewhere, unless you refuse to comply and put others at risk. Nobody really wants to get that close to your sniffling, sneezing ass.

 

[CougEd]

Spokane and E Washington are getting phucked in this debacle.

Absolutely reamed in the sphincter.

There will be civil unrest quite soon if Inslee doesn’t face up to the realities of the numbers.

You're making things up like I don't wash my hands and walking around licking homeless people. I don't go to work or out or when I'm sick anyway - why would I start now? That's just rude.

We were asked to 'flatten the curve' in the first place. We did that. We washed our hands, we stayed hunkered down for a few weeks and the mortality rate is a gnat's ass of the general population.

The draconia measures were implemented on a small data set and extrapolated out of 350 Million people. Man up and adjust it to reality. The UW model has been proved incorrect over and over again.


You know what is selfish? Denying parents the opportunity to go back to work to provide food for their kids. For 1/10,000th % of the risk of death. Sorry. Not buying what's being shoveled out there. The math don't work.

You still fearful? Fine - stay home. Nobody is prying people out of their homes for force labor or employment. But most certainly, they aren't coming into my home or my property without a warrant and due process being fully executed as we are guaranteed by the rule of law.

11....it is a statistic until it is your mother, your son, your daughter. Would I prefer the open up other counties other than king snohomish and Pierce. Yes.

I get people are struggling. At some point they will have to make the calculation lives over the damage that is being done to the economic health and mental health of everyone.

What is offensive to me is that you think our "rights" are being trampled on. Would I be a pussy after Pearl Harbor and saying no to the draft? That is trampling on my individual rights. Is it right to evade service for Vietnam?

I had a discussion with a leading Bio Pharma CEO last Friday. He was on the exact opposite end of the spectrum as the CEO of a large private Puget Sound company. He comes from a science background and talked about how the flu of 1918 decimated an entire population, and how and the data that supports the "draconian" methods as you called them.

There is nothing that is keeping the nail salon from opening up. There is nothing that is keeping the bars from opening up. Will they be arrested(?), I find it hard to believe if there was civil disobedience other than going to parks that the police would enforce.

Fear is the number one motivator. Most (80%) are paralyzed by fear. They won't go to games, malls, dinners without the vaccine. So getting back to normal, to where the income gains way outweighs the "gnats ass" of losses is a ways away.

Here is what I am willing to do. I am willing to work at home because I can. I am willing to do that as long as it takes so others can. My industry needs to stay home creating more open space for others. My hope is Microsoft, Amazon, and others who can work at home (even if less efficient) stay at home so others can go back to work. I am willing to get traced. I am willing to do whatever I can do so others can get their lives back.

But feel free to revolt. All I ask is the following. Since I tend to be conservative and believe the science, and that Inslee and other Governors are not doing this to get Trump out of the White House, that they have my families best interest at heart, all I ask is if I get Covid and there are 6 beds, and five are taken up, and you also get Covid, you will step aside and live by your principles that the gnats ass are acceptable losses.

And same goes for my daughters. If you have a kid at WSU this fall, and I have a daughter there this fall, that if there are four beds, your child is expendable if there is a shortage of beds and my kids gets the bed. Not sure that is too much to ask.

 

[Black Bart the Pirate]

Imposing the same rules on everybody doesn’t make sense to me. Where I live (Laramie county, Wyoming) we have had testing available for anyone who wants it for at least three weeks now. We’ve had exactly one death due to Coronavirus in Laramie County, and the county hospital is starting elective surgery again. The state as a whole was never “shut down” and neither were most of our neighbor states (Colorado excepted, and they are now opening up), my state has exactly seven deaths due to Coronavirus. Think this is underreported, that’s your right but prove it before you assert it.

You say “that’s because it’s different where you live?” I agree, so why should we have to follow the same rules as NYCity or any other large densely packed metropolitan rat’s nest?

I don’t care what news you follow, they are all plenty willing to lie to sell advertising. Samuel Clements (Mark Twain) hit the nail on the head when he famously stated “If you don’t read the news, you are uninformed. If you do read the news, you are misinformed.”