I’m more of a believer in Darnold than McCarthy. McCarthy hasn’t done anything in the NFL and there’s no guarantee he will. I don’t think there’s any hurry to trade McCarthy and get picks either. A backup QB you like is a valuable commodity. The pick they spent on him is largely a sunk cost if you’re doing this right, so I’d expect he stays in Minnesota for now. And they could certainly end up with a Steve Young, Aaron Rogers scenario where he sits for a few years and is then a top 10 QB.
Who spends money on a backup QB in the NFL? McCarthy represents 2-3 starters in needed spots in the upcoming draft. That’s a lot of $$$ riding the bench.
Darnold will cost $50m+. John Schneider isn’t paying that.
I agree with both of you. I'm not sold on Darnold based on his total career, but I can't be sure on McCarthy either. I thought taking him at #10 was extremely optimistic, but if that's the value they placed on him, I don't see that he's done anything to diminish it either.
McCarthy gets less than $1M in salary next season, with a cap hit of $5M. They won't find a veteran backup for that money, so there shouldn't be financial pressure to dump him. I'd likely keep him - either as the backup or as a starter - unless someone offers me a pick in the top half of round 1 (which isn't likely to happen). Even then, I'm not sure I'd move him without a little more incentive, and without a pretty clear idea who my QB is going to be in 2025.
Darnold could be Nick Foles 2.0. Foles was making $5.5M as the backup in Philly, and after his Super Bowl run he got the Jags to give him $22M/year for 4 years. $50M guaranteed. He lasted 1 year. (Giant grain of salt - it was the Jags)
Darnold is making $10M on a 1 year deal with the Vikings (2.5M salary, the rest in signing bonus. 8.75M guaranteed). He's the top of the list of QBs expected to be available. It's possible that some teams could turn his pursuit into a bidding war and push him into the ranks of the highest paid QBs.
Minnesota could also exercise the nuclear option and franchise him, but that means giving him $40M guaranteed on a 1-year deal. They actually have quite a bit of cap room, so could do this and also keep McCarthy for 2025. If Darnold doesn't look good, don't re-sign him for 2026. If he doesn't look good early, trade him ahead of the deadline.
There are a lot of pieces that could still move around and affect the market. If Darnold wins a super bowl, his value goes way up. If Matthew Stafford retires, there's another team with money in the market. Regardless, it's a good year to be a free agent QB, the group of college QBs coming out is as shallow as I can remember seeing in a long time.