JDL
- Thread starter BiggsCoug
- Start date
Making up numbers in order to prove a point....WRONG! The flu always falls about somewhere around a tenth of a percent.
Between October 1, 2019 and April 4, 2020, the flu resulted in:
- 39 to 56 million illnesses
- 410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations
- 24,000 to 62,000 deaths
- 195 pediatric deaths
The FLU at ITS WORST has been higher then 1/10 of 1%, and has been about 1/4 to 1/2 to 3/4 of 1%
Your citing the most recent BEST FLU SEASON EVER, so of course the MOST RECENT BEAT FLU SEASON EVER IS GOING TO BE 1/10 of 1%.
And your wrong, that its not made up numbers pulled out of nowhere, but.
There are some extremely credible sources that have credibly said that the TRUE, FACTUAL of number of Covid Cases is about(a EDUCATED, LOGICAL CREDIBLE ESTIMATE) 3,4,5 cases that dont get reported per every 1 case that gets reported.
Thats about 100 Million cases.
Saying 500k deaths is pretty damn close, close enough to 465k death.
Whether say a close estimate of about 500k dead, or say the official 465k dead, its freaking close enough that either way its about a 1.7% Mortality rate either way.
And saying 1.7% is freaking clise enough to what the mortality rate is based on 20+ million to 27 mill cases.
And whether say about 20+ mill or 27 mill cases is freaking close enough.
And whether say 100 mill cases, and 500k dead, or 100 mill cases and 465k dead, is freaking close enough, and either way is about 1/2 of 1% Mortality rate, which is freaking close enough to what the Mortality rate is, would be based on 100 mill cases, 465k dead.
Its not making up numbers. Its not pulling numbers out of but.
Its making freaking logical, rational, reasonable credible factual close educated, etc, approximations, estimations that are relatively close, freaking close enough to what the exact numbers are.
Your just being a STICKLER for EXACT MATH, NUMBERS
Similar to a grammar, spelling, punctuation, etc, stickler cop
Your also treating what is said like as if I am a Newspaper.
Newspapers do have to use exact math, numbers.
I'm not a Newspaper.
The numbers I used were not random, made up numbers.
They are logical, rational, reasonable, factual, credible, educated, close approximations, extrapolations, estimations, that are relatively close, freaking close enough to the exact math, numbers, to make the point I was making.
And its ok to do that.
And the point bore out by the numbers, etc, is that Covid is comparable, equal, less than, not as bad as the FLU when its at its worst, and that because of that, that maybe should lockdown to stop the FLU when its at its worst, and that because of that, these things, that locking everyrhing down due to Covid is FREAKING REDICULOUS.
AND IT WAS A VALID, LEGIT POINT BASED ON VALID, LEGIT APROXIMATION, EXTRAPOLATION, ESTIMATION NUMBERS THAT ARE FREAKING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EXACT NUMBERS, MATH.
You can stop being like a grammar, spelling cop, and atop being so freaking sticklerish, and take the STICKLER out of your but.
Your posting history makes clear youāre not a stickler for numbers.
Your range of ā1/4 to 1/2 to 3/4 to 1%ā represents a quadrupling, so itās not very useful as an estimate. Even more important, itās completely incorrect.
The highest flu mortality rate in the last decade (2017-18) had a mortality shy of 0.25% (thatās one quarter of one percent), and thatās if you use the high end estimate. Not even the flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968 are estimated to have approached 1%. The only time recorded that a flu pandemic has touched that level was the 1918 flu...estimates from that range up to 2.5%, but health statistics then werenāt great so nobody really knows.
Bottom line is that flu mortality typically fluctuates around a tenth of a percent. In bad years, more people get infected and mortality edges toward a quarter of a percent. But even in those years, less than 100K die. In 2017-18 - and again, using the worst case estimates - as many as 95K died, at least 39 million were infected (mortality rate 0.24%).
By comparison, and using the numbers you did, COVID has killed ~5x more people in 2/3 the number of infections (465K dead, 27.2 million cases). Those numbers alone
Now, we both agree that the 27.2 million doesnāt account for all infections. Those are confirmed cases, so represent the āat leastā number. That gives a covid mortality rate of at most 1.7% - which is 6-7x higher than the worst flu seasons. If we assume, as you suggest, that there are as many as 5 unreported cases for each reported one - meaning that there have actually been 163.2 million covid infections - that gives a mortality rate of 0.28%.
So even at that high rate of incidence - nearly half of the US population infected - the covid mortality rate is slightly higher than the worst flu seasons. And I think we can be confident that the incidence rate is not that high. If it was, there would be greater evidence of antibodies, and the spread would be slower.
You dipshits cant help yourselves. Go start your own thread about the ****ing flu.
I'm not going to argue with mikalalas but I'll just say that anyone who doesn't take the virus seriously is a complete fool and we need to fight the stupidity whenever it raises its ugly head.
My office manager was one of those people who thought that the virus was being overblown.....until his wife ended up spending a week in the hospital because she couldn't breathe.......and he spent two weeks at home going to bed at 3 in the afternoon because he was too fatigued to function properly. They are both fit and healthy people with no comorbidities.
So, while I'm not going to throw out stats, I don't mind 95coug trying to combat the stupidity that is rampant in our country right now. I don't want the virus to become the topic of every thread though.
When people die with the flu, its been counted as a comorbidity.
When people die with Covid its counted as a covid death. Hospice deaths should not be counted as covid deaths, but they are. Its bullshit.
I had sniffles for two mornings that went away after I took a shower. My wife had body aches and fatigue for the better part of a week.
The boredom from isolation was excruciating.
That's been a common rumor since the early days. I meet with my local health authorities every week, and they've repeatedly indicated it's not true - they're counted as COVID deaths only when that's the primary cause.
The next most common rumor is that the hospitals get more money if they record deaths as due to COVID. All of the local hospitals have also refuted this (although I don't remember the details). And they completely denied the claims that people dying in car wrecks, suicides, and murders and found to have COVID were entered as COVID deaths.
A minor problem but not statistically significant is that each state and in some cases even local jurisdictions use different metrics in counting deaths due to covid specifically. Some count deaths related to cases of covid, where an actual fatality due to gunshot or automobiles COULD be classified as a covid death because it would have been tagged as a "verified, positive case of covid" that ended with that person dead.
But the overwhelming majority are classified when covid was either a significant or major contributor to the death of a verified positive case of covid. And this occurs simultaneously when patients could have other contributing factors to death but are ranked lower either by the attending doctor or patholgist. That's all I have to say about that.
Are you willing to vouch for that on all 450,000 deaths?
I'm mainly just toying with you. I don't think there is a black helicopter conspiracy here. However, people tend to get very absolute. Like the pinheads in the media saying absolutely and unequivocally no dead people voted. Some dead people did, like a few hundred nationwide, but obviously not in the numbers that would have affected the result.
Noticed any issues with brain fog? That's one of the things that concerns me the most about the potential for getting this. A substantial effect would be needed, but even the possibility of needing to function in a cognitively limited manner, like Biggs, is horrifying.
Biggs: you guys are circle jerkers.
Also Biggs when one scrolls up: circle jerking.
Also Biggs when one scrolls up: circle jerking.
I know quite a few people that have gone the 2 shot route...and felt like complete crap.
Hope you feel better.
My wife has had her two shots and didn't have any issues with the second, but I've talked to plenty of folks who did have issues with the 2nd shot.
As far as the "death statistics" argument, I have no doubt that there are a lot of people who were probably going to be dying in the near future that died because COVID finished them off early. I expect that we'll see a slightly lower than normal death rate for 12-18 months after the pandemic is done.
The issue that I have with people who rely on comorbidities as their excuse to discredit the danger that the virus presents is that it complete ignores the fact that there actual human beings dying early and people losing their loved ones and we have people trying to parse the numbers to convince themselves that we should ignore the virus and just let it run its course. I don't doubt that there are some cases where COVID got credit when it wasn't due. I'm convinced that the vast majority of the deaths listed as COVID related are legit.
One of the first Covid deaths in eastern Washington was a family friend. Mid 70s in hospice loosing his fight against cancer.
And just like a handful of dead people vote every election. And I have no way of knowing this but Iād guess they were pretty close to 50-50 Ds vs Rs.
Shhhhh.
But seriously, people need to suck it up. Canāt be any worse than the hangover I get after most Coug games.
Social Distancing: Good
Mask: Ok
Good Hygienal, disease prevention tactics: Good.
Locking down everything, the economy, based on Covid's 27 Million to 100 Million Cases, and 465k Death's, and about a 3/4 of 1% to 1.7% Mortality Rate, where usually only those who are 59+ old, and Cancer, Diabetes, etc, a SMALL Minority, are at risk, where said Small Minority, can lock themselves down, locking down everything, closing schools, Colleges, killing businesses, jobs, not reopening things, etc, is HORRIBLY, TERRIBLY NOT OK, NOT GOOD, IS IDIOTIC, STUPID IN EXTREME.
Mask: Ok
Good Hygienal, disease prevention tactics: Good.
Locking down everything, the economy, based on Covid's 27 Million to 100 Million Cases, and 465k Death's, and about a 3/4 of 1% to 1.7% Mortality Rate, where usually only those who are 59+ old, and Cancer, Diabetes, etc, a SMALL Minority, are at risk, where said Small Minority, can lock themselves down, locking down everything, closing schools, Colleges, killing businesses, jobs, not reopening things, etc, is HORRIBLY, TERRIBLY NOT OK, NOT GOOD, IS IDIOTIC, STUPID IN EXTREME.
THose are the ones that are arguable in a way. If the person is already terminal, and COVID just gave the final nudge...what's the cause?
If I was a doctor, I think my test would have to be - would this patient have lived longer without COVID? If yes...it's a COVID death. The same logic works if it's a cancer patient in a car wreck, or a cancer patient suicide. Would they have lived longer without the car wreck? Yes...so the car wreck was the cause. The corollary question (would COVID have killed this patient if they didn't have cancer) can't be answered as definitively.
In general, though, I agree that this applies to a small fraction of cases. In most, it's going to be pretty clear.
I'm not sure I'd call it conspiracy exactly, but a loosely conspiratorial paranoia. A population of foil hat wearers who are convinced that none of it is real, and it's some kind of conspiracy to control us all. That's not even remotely realistic, just based on the simple fact that there's no way you'd be able to convince so many people in government, business, health care, and every other group that would have to be 100% involved to go along with it.
That and the simple fact that everyone with any knowledge of disease and epidemiology has known that some sort of pandemic was certain to happen sooner or later, and have been saying so for years.
Altho Voter fraud, the dead, illegal alien immigrants, etc, voting, etc, is real, but usually doesnt decide elections, its usually the radical elements of communist, marxist, socialist, SJW's(Social Justice Warriors), Activist, Liberals, Leftist, Democrats, Black Panthers, Antifa, Black Lives Matter, etc, that perpetuate the Voter Fraud.
The Conservatives, Republicans, usually believe in Law and Order, etc, and dont usually do Voter Fraud.
Only about 13% to 27% of the conservatives, Republicans, are extreme enough to do voter fraud IN THE PAST.
Usually only the NEO NAZI'S, AND KKK,that are conservative, republican, do voter fraud.
I would say the voter fraud split is about 65% to 75% to 85% Liberals, Democrat, etc, and about 13% to 27% to 39% Conservative, Republicans.
But that may have changed.
Conservatives, Reoublicans have always said that they would never do voter fraud, riot, do what happened in the Watts riots, George Floyd Riots, Ferguson Riots, the riots that happened when Trump won a election, etc.
But then the conservatives, Republicans rioted in the capital.
I still think that ANTIFA, and their party ILK is more of a problem then conservatives, republicans.
I agree that most cases are pretty clear cut . Bleed said hospice cases should not be counted to Covid deaths and it seemed you said they didn't count so stated my friend in hospice did. Could actually see the increase in the report since it was early in this covid mess.
Also, I think early on reporting might of been different as Covid was new and panic hit sections of the medical community, primarily community and public health along with hospital.
95 has given into battling with identity politics, deeming anyone who dissents with popular opinion as a tin-foil hat conspiracy theorist. I'm sure anyone who didn't vote Biden/ Harris is a racist as well.
I consider myself a pragmatist. I don't appreciate little lies even if they are supposedly for the better good, as it erodes public trust, case in point: Fauci lying his ass off about masks. Anyone with a brain knew that he was trying to prevent a run on masks (didn't work), and that Japan has been using masks to mitigate viral spread for years, but in spite of that he lied. Now we're being told to wear 4 or more masks...
For me, this is the same as the absolutes that were given (and still being given) about the virus in general: experts and scientists spoke with authority and in absolutes from the beginning of this pandemic, only to be proven wrong time and time again. "Well, this is a new virus and we are learning as we get no information..." NO SHIT SHERLOCK, stop acting like you know everything.
Look, I know that we're all pulling on the same rope, but I'm not an idiot so don't piss on my head and tell me its raining.
Well, I'm not a doctor, but I think I can say without a doubt that absolutely not one single dead person actually voted. That's all I have to say about that.
I agree with your posts (smart, factual and all) but suicide for a terminally ill patient is still listed as a suicide. What's the PRIMARY cause of death and did THAT THING cause the death earlier than would normally have been expected. Otherwise we are essentially left with - since everyone will die we can dispense with actual causes of death. That's all I have to say about that.
Where do you get this tripe? The most recent actual adjudicated verifiable case of voter fraud occurred in North Carolina...and it was a republican operative. Your numbers are crap...always have been. That's all I have to say about that.
There was a county auditor/election worker, who was interviewed by one of the mainstream news sources on TV.
The Topic was about voter fraud, such as the dead voting.
1 voter, lets call him Bob, looked like he was about 49 to 59 to 69.
He was also interviewed. He showed a mail in ballot, that was addressed to his dog's name so that maybe his dog could vote.
Another voter received a mail in ballot, so that their dead spouse could vote.
Another voter received a mail in ballot so that their illegal alien immigrant family member could vote.
The news interviewer showed the ballots to the county auditor, election worker, and asked about voter fraud, the dead, dogs, ilegal aliens voting.
The county auditor, elections worker said that does happen at least 1 time, if not more in each election.
He did say that even tho that stuff happens, that they try to stop that, and that it doesnt happen often enough to make a difference in the outcome of any election.
And then there is my experience.
I have seen voters, voting at the STA Bus plaza, in Spokane.
They did so, out in open, where they could be theoretically intimated.
They didnt have to show proof of eligibility to vote such as ID cards, birth certificates, social security cards, picture ID, ATM cards, Bank, school, college ID, Yearbook, books, mail with name, mailing address.
All they had to do to vote was say "I am eligible, legal to vote, sign the disclaimer on ballot about voter eligibility, and punishment for voter fraud.
I could have easily voted for my dead grandparents there.
Also there were SJW's grabbing street hispanics, who could be homeless, or could be legal or illegal immigrants, registering them to vote, without proof of any kind, and then having them vote without proof of any kind.
If any of them were illegal aliens, they could easily vote, and have their votes counted.
On another News TV show, another county auditor, elections worker was asked about the kind of experience I had, shared in this post.
They said voter fraud does happen, that dead people, illegal alien immigrants, etc, fraudently vote without proof, and have their fraudalent, illegal votes counted.
Then they said that even tho it happens, its not enough to affect an election.
Voter fraud does happen. The so called dead do vote, and illegal aliens vote.
This especially happens in places like LA, San Fran, CA, etc.
But even tho this stuff happens, it usually doesnt affect elections.
But for you to wrongly say this stuff never happens, and never affects an election, is ignorance in the extreme, because I assume you wouldnt knowingly lie about this, and that you are just a extreme uninformed, misinformed, deceived, lazy(Too lazy to find the truth), ignoramus.
Umm, as to your final paragraph, I never said this stuff doesn't happen. I even agree with your earlier comment that it never is statistically significant to effect an outcome. I disagree with the tripe that that is a definitely or predominately a democratic/liberal tactic an even the baseless statement that the GOP are the ones who care more about law and order. Taihtsat
There is no way to know that someone who was not otherwise terminal would not have survived Covid. To then list Covid at the main reason, when someone is already dying, is dishonest. I get what you're saying, but we aren't talking about suicide, which (if done correctly) is NOT survivable - we're talking about a virus that, even among elderly, is relatively survivable.
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