Mik just called me this afternoon. He's been admitted into urgent care at Sacred Heart in Spokane for acute Kidney Failure. This is totally new to him, and this is all we know.

Mike wanted me to post this to let you know he may be away from our board for awhile, and in the meantime, your prayers are most appreciated.

We're believing for a full recovery! Thanks.

Curious as to whether any WW denizens will go to this thing next Friday. (Brand X has an article and links about it).

The Athletics Update with Deputy AD Mitch Straub could be interesting (link below). I could do without the second one featuring Brand X. Straub's bio is interesting. He (as did Chun) takes credit for this mystical 4-fold increase in CAF revenues, leading to the (to me) unbelievable $62 million raised in 22-23. I'd like to see the math on that, since actual annual operating gift revenues have stayed pretty flat over the years. Apples and oranges you say (aka Endowment giving is not operating revenue, just the annual disbursements from those). Yeah, I'd still like to see the math.
Note that Sr. Associate Director Adam Ganders is in charge of CAF annual giving.


Oh and the Cougar Collective is having some "big" unveiling at the event. Sorry but I am still underwhelmed by them. And their website is outdated (Ex: still featuring the BB matching campaign) and doesn't tell you shit. If you stumbled across the site you would have no idea what the hell it even is.

NM

Jon Wilner
April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am Updated April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am
The Hotline mailbag publishes each Friday. … Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

What are the odds of a reverse merger between the Mountain West and the Pac-12 versus the Pac-12 simply poaching a selection of Mountain West schools to rebuild the conference? — @MarcSheehan006

It hinges, in part, on your definition of a reverse merger. But generally, we see three possible outcomes:

• All 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West and join Washington State and Oregon State in rebuilding the Pac-12.

• At least nine but not all 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West — a super-majority vote is required — and they join the Pac-12, leaving a few behind.

the latest from jon wilner​

• Between four and eight schools give notice that they are leaving the Mountain West in the summer of 2026 to join the Pac-12, a scenario that leads to departure fees for the outbound schools and a poaching penalty for the Pac-12.

The top candidates to leave are fairly clear and would bring competitive success, media value or both: San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State and UNLV.

The schools in jeopardy of getting left behind would be some combination of Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada, Wyoming and San Jose State, depending on the number of spots available.

Air Force and New Mexico fall into a middle tier, in our view.

Which scenario is most likely?

That would depend entirely on who else is available.

Washington State and Oregon State would prefer that another round of realignment creates a path into the ACC or Big 12 or some larger combination of those two conferences.

The next-best scenario for the ‘Pac-2’ schools would entail an ACC implosion that results in Cal and Stanford joining WSU and OSU in a rebuilt Pac-12. (In that case, the reconfigured conference would target only a few schools in the Mountain West.)

The third scenario would leave WSU and OSU with no path into the ACC or Big 12 and no possibility of Stanford and Cal returning. They would be forced to think bigger than a reverse merger with the Mountain West.

They would consider Gonzaga as a non-football member.

They would explore enlarging the conference footprint to include schools in Texas, with UTSA as an intriguing target.

They might even entertain the idea of creating a bicoastal league with schools in the Eastern Time Zone.

Keep in mind an essential element to the calculation: The Mountain West’s media deal with Fox and CBS expires in the summer of 2026, which coincides with the deadline for the emergence of a rebuilt Pac-12.

The media rights strategy will inform expansion decisions for WSU and OSU, and vice versa. The ‘Pac-2’ will attempt to create the most valuable entity possible.

And quantity doesn’t always equal value.

Are we overestimating the likelihood of a reverse merger? The Mountain West may not have a 100-year legacy, but it’s their legacy. — @Moneyline_RAY

Yes and no.

At this point, the likelihood of WSU and OSU executing a reverse merger, with either nine or all 12 Mountain West schools is less than 50-50.

But the chances of WSU and OSU partnering with some combination of Mountain West schools under the Pac-12 banner is close to 90%. Unless there’s a path into the ACC or Big 12, the Cougars and Beavers won’t have any other option.

Granted, we should not discount the possibility of WSU and OSU joining the Mountain West in a traditional expansion move.

But in our view — and despite everything that has unfolded in the past two years — the Pac-12 name and intellectual property are more valuable than the Mountain West name and intellectual property.

(How much more valuable? We can’t quantify the amount.)

And here’s one more piece to consider: Central to the long-haul strategy in Pullman and Corvallis is providing a landing spot in case the NCAA undergoes a massive restructuring — the formation of a super league, for instance — and several of the departing universities consider reversing course.

In that case, an active, competitive conference using the Pac-12 name would be more attractive.

Sponsored​

We keep hearing the ‘Pac-2’ schools have a two-year grace period under NCAA rules. But don’t they really have 12 or 14 months to formalize their plan? — @erikmiletich

Your timeframe is about right. In order for a rebuilt Pac-12 to emerge in the summer of 2026, the process for adding schools would need to begin sometime next summer.

The ‘Pac-2′ schools don’t necessarily need a formal media rights agreement in place by that point. But they would need to have the membership piece locked down.

The other element, of course, is the Mountain West’s penalty structure. Our understanding is that schools would owe approximately $18 million if they give more than 12 months’ notice and roughly $35 million if they give less than 12 months’ notice.

So, let’s mark June 30, 2025, as the Hotline’s unofficial deadline for Washington State and Oregon State to finalize their next move.

Can you interview former Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff to follow up on the conversation from the ‘Canzano and Wilner’ podcast from the fall of 2022? What went wrong? — @mlondo856

I would love to and, in fact, have made several attempts in the past nine months to interview Kliavkoff. He’s not interested. Radio silence is his preferred approach.

But it’s not just the Hotline. Kliavkoff has not uttered a public peep since the conference imploded on Aug. 4. No offerings of regret or remorse. No apology to WSU, OSU and fans across the footprint.

As we wrote when his term concluded at the end of February, Kliavkoff doesn’t believe he has reason to apologize, according to sources.

He blames the collapse entirely on the presidents’ poor leadership, the difficult circumstances he inherited (from Larry Scott), and the schools’ refusal to accept the Apple deal he placed before them.

His stance is, of course, ludicrous. Of course he bears some responsibility.

But he has the right to remain silent.

Any estimates on how much former Oregon State tailback Damien Martinez will make now that he’s in the transfer portal? — @bdgiddens6

Our guess is that Martinez lands a deal in the mid-six-figure range, so anywhere from $400,000 to $600,000.

How much will be guaranteed? How much will the agreement lean into incentives? We can’t answer and don’t really care.

Money played a factor in Martinez’s decision to enter the transfer portal, but it wasn’t the only factor.

He wants the largest platform possible for his final season in order to prove to NFL scouts that he’s worthy of being a high-round draft pick.

The stouter the competition, the better.

In that regard, his decision was comparable to Jonathan Smith’s move to Michigan State. They craved competition, exposure and resources on a higher level.

We remain optimistic about Oregon State’s long-haul status in college football and basketball — the industry will eventually restructure to the point that the ‘Pac-2’ schools are on the same tier as many schools remaining in the power conferences.

But the next few years will be brutally, indisputably difficult.

Do you think the current state of NIL is broken? If so, how would you fix it if you were head of the NCAA? — @BennyL1986

It has been broken from Day One, July 1, 2021, when the NCAA prohibited schools from participating in the NIL process, thereby ensuring the booster-run collectives would control the marketplace.

Not quite three years later, the NCAA is moving toward a complete policy reversal and permitting athletic departments to broker the deals between the athletes and their business partners.

The shift will add oversight but won’t dampen the market.

What might bring some sanity?

If athletes are declared employees and paid salaries by the schools — we think that step is inevitable in the next two or three years — the impact of NIL opportunities on recruiting and transfer decisions could diminish slightly.

Like so much else about college sports, NIL is an absolute mess.

Why do you hate on Washington football so much? — @jakekwood

There is no hate. The Hotline doesn’t hate any team or school. We don’t even dislike any team or school.

Picking against a team to win during the season does not indicate an inherent bias.

All the fans who believe I’m anti-Husky because of the weekly picks seem to have forgotten that I projected Washington to win the Pac-12 championship eight months before the season began.

UW’s march to the title made the Hotline look smart. Given all the times my predictions are wrong, I’m never opposed to being right.

What do you think of the Ivy League? How does it fit into your assessment of the college athletic scene? — Lawrence Grant

When we think of the Ivy League these days, we think of irony.

With its absence of scholarships and heavy emphasis on academics, the Ivy is closer to the NCAA ideal of amateurism than any other conference in Division I.

And yet, it’s at the center of the revolution, courtesy of the Dartmouth basketball team voting to unionize.

With an assist from the National Labor Relations Board, the Green Wave voted 13-2 last month to join Service Employees International Union Local 560.

The process will take time to play out. But if successful, the players would form the first labor union in college athletics.

Jon Wilner: jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com

Guess he got enough of the east coast.

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We hired coach Arbuckle based on his vertical passing scheme and Cam Ward's abilities, but this is going to be an interesting season to watch how adaptable he is as a coach.

My biggest takeaway from the Spring Game is that we appear to be better suited for a power RPO attack than we are for a 4 WR pocket offense. Mateer is an excellent athlete and possesses a uniquely tough vertical running ability at the QB position. We also appear to have 3 solid RB's and a couple of good TE's.

I wouldn't typically be optimistic about our chances at lining up in the P12 with a heavier RPO offense, but this year's schedule is flush with MWC opponents, and I think we might better suited to a lower risk, North/South attack as opposed to trotting out 4 WRs and playing to what I don't see as Mateer's strength.

With all of realignment stuff that happened and the future uncertainties, there's definitely a dark cloud over our fan base, but this is an important bridge year for us. Crap schedule or not, it would be super helpful if we could post an 8-4 (or better) record and snag an early season win over Texas Tech or UW.

This has been touched on already, but I still don't get it. Former, pre-NIL athletes may/will get a settlement for NIL money they might have earned before the NIL shit became legal? The biggest question is this - how exactly can the athletes prove or calculate damages? "Oh well gee I would have made $X back in 2020" (or whatever). And the lead plaintiff is former ASU SWIMMER Grant House? Who would have gotten (my guesstimate) probably, exactly, maybe $-0- in NIL Money? WTF? I guess Minshew should add his name to this lawsuit. He would have made millions from mustache wax and jort companies.

On Brand X. Interesting quotes from him -
"all in" on NBA (a combine invite or not will clear that up IMHO), doesn't want to come back to college, but if so WSU would be in the mix. Loved/loves his time here.

If the NBA doesn't pan out, he would really rip it up in the HS gym league in Riley's offense. Hey Cougar NIL - at least make an offer that would give him a very comfortable last year at WSU. Can't even begin to compete with other schools on this, but a stellar last year and his multimillion-dollar NBA future would be set. If he's not keen on college anyway, at least we would be a comfy place to hang out. Do kinda wonder about his grades, could that be a quiet factor?

Here is an interesting analytics article that also has a Coug focus.

Imagine a high-level analytics ninja who learned his data science refining risk metrics and variables for insurance companies with billions of dollars on the line becoming a diehard basketball fan and beginning to chase that powerful, palpable, but elusive thing that every player, fan, and coach has sensed and loved when watching great teams play — chemistry.

Can a coach measure chemistry? It used to be a thing coaches worked to develop over years as different recruiting classes grew up together. But in the age of NIL deals and constant roster musical chairs (thanks to the transfer portal), that process has to accelerate or die. Could a coach select for maximum chemistry within a new roster?

“Absolutely, yes,” Jack said. “That’s what I chase.”

Washington State basketball’s 'Moneyball' moment | Blaze Media

The setting was a November home basketball game for the Washington State Cougars in Pullman, Washington. Warm-ups were over, the Stars and Stripes had been formally acknowledged, and starters had been introduced. My teenage son and I took our seats along the sideline, feet happily on the...

www.theblaze.com

About Matteer’s arm.

So here is a marketing idea from the always thinking Loyal one. Let's pronounce this as the Mike Leach tribute game. Run that crossed swords Coug flag up the flagpole. See if we can get his widow, and/or maybe a couple of Leach alumni players and/or coaches to fly in and have some sort of on-field ceremony with Coug and TT luminaries on the field. Of course active coaches and players (like Minshew) will be busy that weekend but do what we can. A final sendoff for the Pirate.

Which PAC rebuild option prefer?

Please vote.

In no particular order

1. Don't do a PAC rebuild, and just join Big 12, ACC(Not as realistic as rebuilding PAC)

2. Merge the PAC into the ACC(Less realistic)

3. Merge PAC with parts of MWC, into ACC

4. Merge whole entire MWC into PAC AND Merge that into ACC

5. Take top 3,4,5,6,7 MWC + either Memphis, an or Tulane an or UTSA an or NDSU to rebuild PAC

6. Take top 3,4,5,6,7 MWC + Memphis an or Tulane an or UTSA an or NDSU + ACC leftovers to rebuild PAC

7. Take top 9 MWC(Top 9 dissolve MWC, leave 3 worst behind, free, no fees, etc, top 9 are BSU, SDSU, Fresno St, UNLV, Airforce, CSU, Utah St, Wyoming, 1 mote, other) + 1 of either Memphis or Tulane or UTSA or NDSU to rebuild PAC

8. Take top 9 MWC + Memphis an or Tulane an or UTSA an or NDSU + ACC leftovers to rebuild PAC

9. Take the top 9 MWC to rebuild PAC

10. Reverse merger whole MWC into PAC

11. Do either nothing, something else not on list, etc.

Please vote for 1 of the options on the list.

Hopefully Isaiah Watts (& Donald) have some influence here. I believe he has until May 1 to decide whether he stays in the draft.

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I still think the Bears should have dealt #1, but picking up Odunze at 9 was good. They’ve got targets and a legitimate run threat now…too bad they still don’t have an OL.

Not sure what the Falcons are thinking. Cousins is a bit of a gamble on a rebuilt Achilles…and now they spend #8 on a kid with rebuilt knees? It could work out for them in a Favre-Rogers way…but it’s a huge roll of the dice.

Broncos….I don’t really have an issue with picking up Nix at 12. Could be a high value pick there. But WTH did they trade for Zach Wilson?

Seahawks…getting Byron Murphy at 16 seems like a steal. But I feel like he’s a bit undersized for an NFL DT, and might not last long

Getting illegally paid, now that its legal, is getting swept under the rug.....

Maybe this will be a conference game in ‘31?

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Stretch, Your recent effort and proclamation was greatly appreciated.

You won't make the dumbasses listen or change, but they can't really retort either.

A+++ on your Cougar Report Card my good man!

Dayana Mendes (France), Marta Alsina (Spain) and Keandra Koorits (Estonia). There was another verbal commitment from a PG from China. Her highlights looked pretty good.

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Sad reads. Had to get 3 articles to piece it all together. Complete and utter failure of the local police agencies, a T-C judge, and multiple school districts over several years. At least he had the decency to kill himself.

Nfm

The whole article needs to be read, but this talk of creating a women's allocation pool for NCAA tournament monies is interesting. Smaller numbers I'm sure, but hey. Seems meaningless to WSU right now since the shit affiliation agreement we have with the HS gym league precludes us from sharing in the NCAA money (even if we make it and earn money for THEM). But one thing from this women's article below - this would be cool.

“I’ve heard they’re doing a retroactive units program. I think that would be wonderful,” Stanford coach Tara VanDerveer said smiling at the Portland Regional last week.

Compliments of our future conference mates on the Mtn West site. Helluva lot of info for when you are bored and want to drill down.

before title game and even recommended a top defense attorney.
NOT a good look.